Garza, Nunge, Connor McCaffery All Ranked in Rivals Final 150 for '17



WindsorHawk said:
Something tells me those posts will still come. I obviously can't prove this. But I honestly believe Garza would be top 100 if he had signed with Maryland instead of Iowa. And I suspect Nunge would be top 100 if he were going to Indiana. Many recruits gain or lose a star based on their college choice IMO.
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While I do agree getting looks from Duke, Kansas, UNC and schools of that tradition can and will inflate player ratings. I think Garza and Nunge specifically were late bloomers. Not to say they were unknown, but they both really exploded in their senior seasons. I think they both played worthy of a top 100 ranking in their senior campaigns, but they couldn't rise quite enough to crack the actual top 100 ranking. It really doesn't mean much to me 30-150 are all your second tier guys. They aren't likely 1 and done talent or physical maturity yet but they are skilled enough to build your program on them. You get below 300 then you are usually starting to take chances on the kid panning out. As I say that though I can't help but laugh because we just watched Jordan Bohannon shatter that stereotype. All in all if we can average a top 150 recruit then we will be in as good of shape as I have ever seen at Iowa. If we can start averaging top 100 recruits this program will see heights that we haven't seen since Lute or those teams from the 50's.
 




Adam said:
While I do agree getting looks from Duke, Kansas, UNC and schools of that tradition can and will inflate player ratings. I think Garza and Nunge specifically were late bloomers. Not to say they were unknown, but they both really exploded in their senior seasons. I think they both played worthy of a top 100 ranking in their senior campaigns, but they couldn't rise quite enough to crack the actual top 100 ranking. It really doesn't mean much to me 30-150 are all your second tier guys. They aren't likely 1 and done talent or physical maturity yet but they are skilled enough to build your program on them. You get below 300 then you are usually starting to take chances on the kid panning out. As I say that though I can't help but laugh because we just watched Jordan Bohannon shatter that stereotype. All in all if we can average a top 150 recruit then we will be in as good of shape as I have ever seen at Iowa. If we can start averaging top 100 recruits this program will see heights that we haven't seen since Lute or those teams from the 50's.
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I agree that Garza and Nunge are late bloomers. Fran has been an expert in identifying these. As the last 2 posts show, the late bloomers signing with us are blooming earlier and earlier.
 


UncleHawk said:
I agree that Garza and Nunge are late bloomers. Fran has been an expert in identifying these. As the last 2 posts show, the late bloomers signing with us are blooming earlier and earlier.
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It seems like every player he identifies and gets in on early ends up being a stud. Even if their rankings never do show it.
 


PCHawk said:
It seems like every player he identifies and gets in on early ends up being a stud. Even if their rankings never do show it.
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There have certainly been some misses by Fran. But those have become fewer and on a higher level. Hence, the "problem" of the overcrowded roster today.
 






I've said it a 100 times on here, you only really need to hit on one kid per class to be a top 25 program. Everyone needs roll players. It's when you can string the hits all together for a few seasons that it can be special.
 


PCHawk said:
Every coach has misses, but if he keeps finding talent early like this, we are in good shape.
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Fran gets in early on guys and then has lost some when bigger names come calling late. I haven't actually worked through the list of misses. But how many of those were guys that Fran took a chance on late because he lost the guy he really wanted? I don't know the answer but thought you or someone else might. I don't mind taking a chance (missing) on someone when sitting on a scholarship.
 


Adam said:
While I do agree getting looks from Duke, Kansas, UNC and schools of that tradition can and will inflate player ratings. I think Garza and Nunge specifically were late bloomers. Not to say they were unknown, but they both really exploded in their senior seasons. I think they both played worthy of a top 100 ranking in their senior campaigns, but they couldn't rise quite enough to crack the actual top 100 ranking. It really doesn't mean much to me 30-150 are all your second tier guys. They aren't likely 1 and done talent or physical maturity yet but they are skilled enough to build your program on them. You get below 300 then you are usually starting to take chances on the kid panning out. As I say that though I can't help but laugh because we just watched Jordan Bohannon shatter that stereotype. All in all if we can average a top 150 recruit then we will be in as good of shape as I have ever seen at Iowa. If we can start averaging top 100 recruits this program will see heights that we haven't seen since Lute or those teams from the 50's.
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I will take an entire roster of "second tier"guys by that definition...30-150. But to be serious...I trust Fran's and his assistants' evaluations more than any of the ranking services.
 


InGoodCo said:
I've said it a 100 times on here, you only really need to hit on one kid per class to be a top 25 program. Everyone needs roll players. It's when you can string the hits all together for a few seasons that it can be special.
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I agree and check this out.

Yr - Star (Role Players)

2010 - Marble (Basabe, McCabe)
2011 - White (Olaseni, Oglesby)
2012 - None (Mg, Woody, Sapp)
*This was really the program building class. Uthoff became a star of this class but was really a 2011 HS recruit.
2013 - Jok (None)
2014 - None (Baer, Uhl, Ellingson)
2015 - None (Moss, Wagner, Williams)
2016 - Cook (JBo, Pemsl, Kriener)
2017 - TBD

So to me Fran has been highly successful in 5 of his first 7 classes, with 2014 & 2015 being below average. I would say if Moss becomes a star and Wagner / Williams keep improving that class may turn out alright.

Actually if JBo becomes a star we may have two stars in the 2016 class.

So what happened in 2014 & 2015? I'd say it's a combination of two things.

1. I think Fran thought he had another diamond in the rough in Uhl. Heck through January of 2016 I'd have said he was looking right. It appears Uhl is more of a role player, which isn't a knock on the kid.

2. I think at that time we had less playing time to sell with MG, JU, Sapp, Woody and Jok moving into their latter years on campus.
 
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NikeHawk21 said:
I agree and check this out.

Yr - Star (Role Players)

2010 - Marble (Basabe, McCabe)
2011 - White (Olaseni, Oglesby)
2012 - None (Mg, Woody, Sapp)
*This was really the program building class. Uthoff became a star of this class but was really a 2011 HS recruit.
2013 - Jok (None)
2014 - None (Uhl, Ellingson)
2015 - None (Moss, Wagner, Williams)
2016 - Cook (JBo, Pemsl, Kriener)
2017 - TBD

So to me Fran has been highly successful in 5 of his first 7 classes, with 2014 & 2015 being below average. I would say if Moss becomes a star and Wagner / Williams keep improving that class may turn out alright.

Actually if JBo becomes a star we may have two stars in the 2016 class.

So what happened in 2014 & 2015? I'd say it's a combination of two things.

1. I think Fran thought he had another diamond in the rough in Uhl. Heck through January of 2016 I'd have said he was looking right. It appears Uhl is more of a role player, which isn't a knock on the kid.

2. I think at that time we had less playing time to sell with MG, JU, Sapp, Woody and Jok moving into their latter years on campus.
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You're selling the 2014 class short IMO...Uhl, Ellingson and Baer. Fran didn't give Baer a scholarship but he recruited him. All Baer asked in return is that he be allowed to RS.
 


WindsorHawk said:
You're selling the 2014 class short IMO...Uhl, Ellingson and Baer. Fran didn't give Baer a scholarship but he recruited him. All Baer asked in return is that he be allowed to RS.
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Whoops. I knew I wouldn't get through that without missing something. I agree, regardless of whether it was good fortune or not Fran did recruit Baer.

I fixed it.
 


InGoodCo said:
I've said it a 100 times on here, you only really need to hit on one kid per class to be a top 25 program. Everyone needs roll players. It's when you can string the hits all together for a few seasons that it can be special.
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I'd argue you need 2 solid kids. It's tough for just 1 kid to completely shoulder a team albeit has been done before. It's just a lot to ask. But absolutely every team needs roll players. Which is what makes a kid like Baer worth his weight in gold.
 


Hawkfnntn said:
I'd argue you need 2 solid kids. It's tough for just 1 kid to completely shoulder a team albeit has been done before. It's just a lot to ask. But absolutely every team needs roll players. Which is what makes a kid like Baer worth his weight in gold.
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If you get one good player per class, you would have 4 good players on a team assuming no one leaves early.
 


WindsorHawk said:
Fran gets in early on guys and then has lost some when bigger names come calling late. I haven't actually worked through the list of misses. But how many of those were guys that Fran took a chance on late because he lost the guy he really wanted? I don't know the answer but thought you or someone else might. I don't mind taking a chance (missing) on someone when sitting on a scholarship.
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I think most of his "misses" have been guys he only lightly recruited as backup plans or never even had a commitable offer.
 


PCHawk said:
If you get one good player per class, you would have 4 good players on a team assuming no one leaves early.
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Yup I gotcha. It all depends on makup of team. Right now Iowa is so young due to the previous class being so senior laden that the scholly distribution is what it is. But yeah I follow what your saying
 


Hawkfnntn said:
Yup I gotcha. It all depends on makup of team. Right now Iowa is so young due to the previous class being so senior laden that the scholly distribution is what it is. But yeah I follow what your saying
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The balance of classes are due to (IMO) the mess that Lick left... and it's STILL balancing out. Plus, Fran needed to win right away when he got to Iowa. This fan base wasn't going to put up with it and he knew it... so he probably played guys he would have liked to take more time to develop and balance things out due to necessity. I think that problem will work its way out eventually but it takes A LOT of time and it's not Fran fault per say, but more of what he inherited.
 


InGoodCo said:
The balance of classes are due to (IMO) the mess that Lick left... and it's STILL balancing out. Plus, Fran needed to win right away when he got to Iowa. This fan base wasn't going to put up with it and he knew it... so he probably played guys he would have liked to take more time to develop and balance things out due to necessity. I think that problem will work its way out eventually but it takes A LOT of time and it's not Fran fault per say, but more of what he inherited.
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As far as balancing classes I do wish we could have paired someone with Joe next year but it doesn't took like we will have a scholarship.

While we will likely have some natural attrition after next year with 13/14 guys hoping for minutes, you can't really sign people without a scholarship. If someone or multiple people transfer after the season it would put us in a weird situation. You could try and find a late signee like Dailey to join Weiskamp.

If not or if we tried a grad transfer that means we would be looking at potentially a 5 player class with Patrick's class in 19. (Baer, Wagner, Ellingson, Williams and potential transfer?). IMO 5 is too many but I will likely work itself out.
 


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