How good are the Hawkeyes - really?

LurkinGopher

LurkinGopher

Well-Known Member
Over the past 17 games...

2 FCS opponents (Lost 1)
10 FBS Teams with losing records
5 FBS Teams with winning records (Lost 2)

Sorry to be a downer after the loss, but the Hawkeyes might not be as good as Hawkeye Nation hopes.
 




Like a poster said yesterday. Iowa is a 7-5 team, they were last year and got lucky with the easiest schedule in history. They are 7-5 again this year, and will probably regress to the mean. They are Jeff Fisher really.
 


A thread full of trolls, lol, but they were more of a 10-2 caliber team last year. They were good enough to play with Michigan State, but not an elite program like Stanford.

This year they are definitely more of a 7-5 or 8-4 type team. I mean, if they can't beat NDSU, how do they expect to beat Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers, etc.
 


IMHO....we will find out how basically good Iowa is in the next 4 games. If Iowa is Big Ten West Championship material they must go 4-0......3-1 m a y b e.....BIG m a y b e. The back end of the schedule will ultimately tell if they make it to title game and if they can be competitive in that game (I don't think Iowa has a prayer of winning against the East Champ......especially OSU and MSU).

But, I think Iowa looks like a 7-5 team right now. I consider losing the North Dakota St game like losing to the clowns....only worse in several ways because they are a FCS team (no matter how good they are). Usually when Iowa loses to the clowns it means a mediocre year.

Line play, Xs and Os, and skill position play needs to improve. And, we really don't know about Iowa's field goal kicker yet. I figure that is also probably a weakness being hidden as well.
 


LurkinGopher said:
Over the past 17 games...

2 FCS opponents (Lost 1)
10 FBS Teams with losing records
5 FBS Teams with winning records (Lost 2)

Sorry to be a downer after the loss, but the Hawkeyes might not be as good as Hawkeye Nation hopes.
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What you aren't mentioning is the 3 wins over BS teams with winning records includes at Wisky (OK decent win) NW which had big weaknesses and an 8-5 Pitt team. Hmm, Doesn't really taste like a 10-2 team. More like 8 or 9 win team with some great breaks. OK repeat after me. Cowherd was right....Cowherd was right...cowherd was right.... We got worked up over nothing...... Is beating our chest of the false bullies of the Big Ten any worse than ISU fans beating their chests over an Iowa win? Reality is painful. A 10 year contract even worse.
 


LurkinGopher said:
Over the past 17 games...

2 FCS opponents (Lost 1)
10 FBS Teams with losing records
5 FBS Teams with winning records (Lost 2)

Sorry to be a downer after the loss, but the Hawkeyes might not be as good as Hawkeye Nation hopes.
Click to expand...

To be fair, they've never been as good as we've hoped. Also, outside of the loss to an FCS...and I don't have the time or desire to prove it, I would speculate that very few teams with a similar record over the last 17 games, would look a lot different in terms of opponents records.
 




I think we are a 6-6 team. Last year we got on a roll and CJ & King made some off-script plays that put us over the top in a lot of ball games. We had some very good senior leadership also that has been lost. That team came out and played with hunger, an edge and a chip. By the end of the year we were pretty banged up and we started to revert to playing it safe.

It looks to me like the captain has reverted back to his old mantra of playing it ultra conservative thinking he has a better defense than he really does and better overall talent than he really does. We just got lucky to start this year that the first 2 teams were absolutely horrific but if you watched the first 2 games closely you could see signs of trouble. Our game plans on both sides of the ball have been so extremely basic and lacked any creativity it's incredible,

KF was counting on winning that TO battle that he drools over but the problem is King accounted for 8 of those by himself last year and this year very few balls are going his way. Most punts have been unreturnable so he's not a factor there either so his ability to effect games has been nullified.

Toss in CJ's inability to effect games because he's in the pocket way too much as it is much harder to make those off-script plays from the pocket. CJ does his best work on the move and that buys our receivers time to get open down the field. So CJ's either not fully recovered from the surgery despite what he says or they are trying to protect him but it's false protection because our line is suspect pass-blockers. He's gotten hit hard multiple times already by shotty pass blocking.

I just see this season ending badly. Every time he tries to play it close to the vest it back fires. There's no edge or chip this year. Old Kirk is back as he's comfortable again - the pressure is off.
 


LurkinGopher said:
Over the past 17 games...

2 FCS opponents (Lost 1)
10 FBS Teams with losing records
5 FBS Teams with winning records (Lost 2)

Sorry to be a downer after the loss, but the Hawkeyes might not be as good as Hawkeye Nation hopes.
Click to expand...

Not that it makes a difference, but the fact is since Iowa beat 3 teams that ended up 6-7, or 5-7, that is why they ended up with losing records.

But your point is still valid. 2015 felt all along like the team was not much better than the 2013 team that finished 8-4. Except the 2013 team played ohio state and Mich st in the reg season. Still the 2015 team did beat Wisc and won its close game in ooc against Pitt, while the 2013 team had its stinker ooc last minute loss against NIU.

So in the end the 2015 team was probably the equivilant of 9-3 team that had 1 extra victory because it was a little lucky and had 2 extra victories because of an easy schedule that did not include OSU and MSU.

One thing is clear. 2015 team was much better than the 2014 team, because the 2014 team had an almost identical schedule to the 2015 team. The 2014 team was probably a 6-6 team that finished 7-5 because it had an easy schedule.
 
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Iowa is a good team. They can only beat the teams that are on their schedule. When Iowa beats those teams that means that they are less likely to win as many games because Iowa had just beaten them. What those teams do in match ups against other teams does not change the fact that Iowa is a great football program. I don't see any reason at all to worry about how many games our enemies when or lose, as long as Iowa destroys them!
 


What Iowa's record would have been if luck and schedule were the same each year.

2008.
Actual 9-4.
All things being equal 10-3

2009
Actual 11-2
Equalized 10-3

2010
Actual 8-5
Equalized 10-3

2011
Actual 7-6
Equalized 7-6

2012
Actual 4-8
Equalized 5-7

2013
Actual 8-5
Equalized 8-5

2014
Actual 7-6
Equalized 6-7

2015
Actual 12-2
Equalized 10-4
 


guffus said:
. I don't see any reason at all to worry about how many games our enemies when or lose, as long as Iowa destroys them!
Click to expand...

There in lies the problem. Beginning to wonder if most of the time it's not that KF won't, but can't.....
 


The outlook for the Big Ten West breaks about were we expected it to be. Though Wisconsin isn't near as dead as some of us thought. Given their harsh schedule, Wisconsin has to toughest road to the west crown. Minnesota has the best schedule of the contenders having Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State as crossovers.

As to how good is Iowa? There is some talent, CJ and Desmond are NFL early round talent. The other seniors are probably late rounders at best. Johnson and Ekaketie got man handled last week by a good FCS offensive line. But the problem is on offense. If the offense can't keep their own defense on the bench, Iowa will finish in the middle of the west.

Iowa should beat NW, Purdue, Rutgers. Minnesota is going to be a tough game. Even with winning their first four conference games, Iowa still has to get by Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska at home. And given the talent on the field they don't have any room for error.
 


HawkeyeDenis said:
The outlook for the Big Ten West breaks about were we expected it to be. Though Wisconsin isn't near as dead as some of us thought. Given their harsh schedule, Wisconsin has to toughest road to the west crown. Minnesota has the best schedule of the contenders having Rutgers, Maryland and Penn State as crossovers.

As to how good is Iowa? There is some talent, CJ and Desmond are NFL early round talent. The other seniors are probably late rounders at best. Johnson and Ekaketie got man handled last week by a good FCS offensive line. But the problem is on offense. If the offense can't keep their own defense on the bench, Iowa will finish in the middle of the west.

Iowa should beat NW, Purdue, Rutgers. Minnesota is going to be a tough game. Even with winning their first four conference games, Iowa still has to get by Wisconsin, Michigan and Nebraska at home. And given the talent on the field they don't have any room for error.
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Iowa should beat NW, Rutgers, and MN? How so based on this years results. Will say can without a lot of room for error.

Wisconsin will play smash mouth football with more talent than NDSU. Iowa has shown an ability to not stop resourceful quarterbacks. MN has one that will want to beat Iowa. Iowa couldn't stop NDSU's qb when they needed to. Armstrong? If M finds an Iowa weakness, guarantee the Jimmies will exploit it for style points.

I think your analysis is spot on for teams not Iowa. Lot's of questions for Iowa.


 


Stanzi said:
A thread full of trolls, lol, but they were more of a 10-2 caliber team last year. They were good enough to play with Michigan State, but not an elite program like Stanford.

This year they are definitely more of a 7-5 or 8-4 type team. I mean, if they can't beat NDSU, how do they expect to beat Illinois, Northwestern, Rutgers, etc.
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You really think that little of NDSU? Sorry but I think they'd curb stomp Illinois and possibly Northwestern and Rutgers as well.
 


Talent wise we're 3-0, favorite to win the West and have a realistic shot at winning every game on the schedule.
Hindered by coaching, we're 2-1, could finish as low as 3rd in the West and finish 7-5 or 8-4.
Predictable vanilla play calling, no blitzes or stunts, not taking advantage of what the defense is giving us because we're too stubborn. Kirk coached last year to win the game, now it's back to form of playing not to lose. His job was on the line last year is really the only difference. We've lost far too many like this that we shouldn't have over the years.
 


I think its a tricky question, because I'm one that truly believes a team is never really as good as they look in a big win and never as bad as they seem after a loss. I also don't think its fair to say that last year we weren't a very good team despite going 12-0 because of the schedule. We may not have been elite, but there were a number of teams that could have beat us during the regular season but didn't.

Do I think we're still good enough (and deserving) to finish in the top 25? Yes. Do I think we may be good enough to win the West? Yes. Do I think we're good enough to Win the BIG? Doubtful. Did I think we were a playoff team entering the season? No.
 


BGOLD said:
Talent wise we're 3-0, favorite to win the West and have a realistic shot at winning every game on the schedule.
Hindered by coaching, we're 2-1, could finish as low as 3rd in the West and finish 7-5 or 8-4.
Predictable vanilla play calling, no blitzes or stunts, not taking advantage of what the defense is giving us because we're too stubborn. Kirk coached last year to win the game, now it's back to form of playing not to lose. His job was on the line last year is really the only difference. We've lost far too many like this that we shouldn't have over the years.
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The Hawks have been pushed around Lot's of close games. Talent wise a favorite to win the west? How? Granted, vanilla play calling...check. Stubborn....check. Playing not to lose (win) check. Lost far too many like this....CHECK! More talented than Nebby, Wisconsin and maybe Minny....How so? Playing teams that play above their abiity...Check in NW. Playing a team that is just like Iowa on their turf...PSU....Check. Playing a team on the road that can score at Rutgers...check. Playing a team that is not that much different in talent but with a gamer coach...MI...CHECK. Will Wisky suffer more than 2 losses...not likely. Can Iowa not suffer not more than 2 losses.....ummmmmm
 


You are what your record says you are...nothing more...nothing less. They had one game where they wet the bed. 12-2...that's who we were. That team came together last year. We needs some answers in our run defense right now, and protecting the QB, but if we improve there...we can win the West. Having Daniels and Welsh back will help...certainly, but we need Mitchell back in my opinion. Daniels and Wadley can't block anyone in protection...which is really freaking surprising. Put a fullback or Pekar in the backfield and protect CJ...Pekar can release as a safety valve if necessary. Mitchell is a good blocker...we need him back.
 


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