CFN Analyzing Iowa's Schedule









homerHAWKeye777 said:
My take:

Highly probable wins (prob. of victory > 0.900 for each game): EIU, BSU, IU, ISU, MINN

Likely wins ( 0.700 < prob. of victory < 0.900 ): NW, UA, MSU, MICH

Borderline wins (0.550 < prob. of victory < 0.700): UW, PSU

Push (0.450 < prob. of victory < 0.550): tOSU

"BY THE NUMBERS" worst case: (Calculating using the low range probability values as our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 8.85 games
standard deviation = 1.43 games

"BY THE NUMBERS" best case: (using the high-range values for our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 10.55 games
standard deviation = 1.01 games

Now using a 2-standard deviation "rule of thumb" in order to discern what should constitute a "usual" outcome for each null hypothesis I arrive at the following results:

Worst-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 6 and 11.7 wins with a mean outcome right in the middle. This obviously reveals BOTH the lack of resolution that you can have in this sort of analysis AND the REALITY that a team like Iowa really CAN have a VERY narrow margin for error.

Best-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 8.5 and 12 wins, with a mean outcome at right around 10.5 wins.

Conclusion: The reality in 2010 probably lies somewhere in between the worst and best cases. I'm inclined to bet that a mean of 9.75 wins with a standard deviation of 1.25 games is probably the closest thing to reality for the 2010 Hawk squad. That would imply that an 11 win season would simply be a single standard deviation away from the mean ... making it a VERY attainable outcome. However, nearly equally likely would also be an 8.5 win season (roughly speaking 8 wins with a game right on the border that could go either way).
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Your "worst case" is not the worst case. I'm not going to jinx anything by explaining it, but a lot of things could happen next year.

The kool-aid is flowing in this thread.
 


Palpatine said:
Your "worst case" is not the worst case. I'm not going to jinx anything by explaining it, but a lot of things could happen next year.

The kool-aid is flowing in this thread.
Click to expand...

Palpatine -

Firstly, I agree that pretty much anything is possible in college football. Furthermore, if the Hawks players go into games without adequate leadership and without the right attitude ... then failure is much more possible than any of us would like to admit.

However, that said, just look at what happened in 2006. Specifically, in 2006 ...

- the squad got more injured on BOTH SIDES OF THE BALL more than any other season that I can recall
- the coaches made errors in personnel decisions that exacerbated the culture of entitlement that had taken root on the squad (fortunately the coaches learned from their mistakes)
- the squad suffered from attitude issues
- the squad played the blame game in the locker room once the losses started accumulating (this was also related to mismanagement of very high expectations ... both the fault of team leaders and the coaches)
- the squad was seriously lacking in leadership on the field
- the squad was pretty inexperienced at WR

However, despite the proverbial wheels coming off the squad in 2006 ... what was the regular season record?

You got it ....

6-6

Thus, I think that this brilliantly illustrates how even a "bad year" at Iowa is on par with a decent year for some of our Big 10 brethren.

Anyhow, I think that if you look at the current Hawk squad, I really think that the attitude on the team is back where it needs to be. As a result, I really think that that elevates the "worst case" for our Hawks.
 


homerHAWKeye777 said:
My take:

Highly probable wins (prob. of victory > 0.900 for each game): EIU, BSU, IU, ISU, MINN

Likely wins ( 0.700 < prob. of victory < 0.900 ): NW, UA, MSU, MICH

Borderline wins (0.550 < prob. of victory < 0.700): UW, PSU

Push (0.450 < prob. of victory < 0.550): tOSU

"BY THE NUMBERS" worst case: (Calculating using the low range probability values as our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 8.85 games
standard deviation = 1.43 games

"BY THE NUMBERS" best case: (using the high-range values for our null hypothesis)

expected # of victories = 10.55 games
standard deviation = 1.01 games

Now using a 2-standard deviation "rule of thumb" in order to discern what should constitute a "usual" outcome for each null hypothesis I arrive at the following results:

Worst-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 6 and 11.7 wins with a mean outcome right in the middle. This obviously reveals BOTH the lack of resolution that you can have in this sort of analysis AND the REALITY that a team like Iowa really CAN have a VERY narrow margin for error.

Best-case: Here the "usual-range" would be between 8.5 and 12 wins, with a mean outcome at right around 10.5 wins.

Conclusion: The reality in 2010 probably lies somewhere in between the worst and best cases. I'm inclined to bet that a mean of 9.75 wins with a standard deviation of 1.25 games is probably the closest thing to reality for the 2010 Hawk squad. That would imply that an 11 win season would simply be a single standard deviation away from the mean ... making it a VERY attainable outcome. However, nearly equally likely would also be an 8.5 win season (roughly speaking 8 wins with a game right on the border that could go either way).
Click to expand...

Through your probablilty analysis it appears the Hawks winning only 8 games is more likely than winning 12. So we agree on that.

Winning 9, 10 or 11 games appear the more likely scenarios, as you determined with your analysis. I also agree with this.

That said I hope everything goes right for the Hawks and they can somehow pull out 11 or 12 wins and get into the NC game. It's possible but the Hawks will need some help and a little luck along the way.
 


I think 10-2 is very attainable for you guys. Most of your team is back this year but Stanzi needs to be awake for all 4quarters so no heart attacks happen this year. You got alot of respect last year but you will get even more if it doesnt come down to the wire week in and week out. Number one goal should be to beat Ohio State. Then you can seal the big 10.
 


BigRedPowrWagon said:
I think 10-2 is very attainable for you guys. Most of your team is back this year but Stanzi needs to be awake for all 4quarters so no heart attacks happen this year. You got alot of respect last year but you will get even more if it doesnt come down to the wire week in and week out. Number one goal should be to beat Ohio State. Then you can seal the big 10.
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I'm tellin' ya we got no respect last year, no respect at all.
 


If anyone thinks DDHawkeye is being ignorant for his post, than you are clearly being ignorant... hard! If I can predict the future, and I can, this is the beginning of an (8)peat National Championship run by the glorious Hawkeyes!!!
 


jameskalina said:
Through your probablilty analysis it appears the Hawks winning only 8 games is more likely than winning 12. So we agree on that.

Winning 9, 10 or 11 games appear the more likely scenarios, as you determined with your analysis. I also agree with this.

That said I hope everything goes right for the Hawks and they can somehow pull out 11 or 12 wins and get into the NC game. It's possible but the Hawks will need some help and a little luck along the way.
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jameskalina -

If you want to see how consistent your gut feeling is on the fine and coarse scale ... give the probability ranges that anticipate are reasonable for each game and I can estimate best and worst case scenarios given the numbers that you provide.
 


hawksasaurus said:
If anyone thinks DDHawkeye is being ignorant for his post, than you are clearly being ignorant... hard! If I can predict the future, and I can, this is the beginning of an (8)peat National Championship run by the glorious Hawkeyes!!!
Click to expand...


The ignorance of your ignorant post is ignorant.
 


hawksasaurus said:
If anyone thinks DDHawkeye is being ignorant for his post, than you are clearly being ignorant... hard! If I can predict the future, and I can, this is the beginning of an (8)peat National Championship run by the glorious Hawkeyes!!!
Click to expand...

Finally, someone else who knows what he's talking about. I'm thinking a minimum 8-pete run of National Championships.
 












NewMexHawk said:
Until we actually beat osu, I mark that game down as a loss.

They just have our number. We win about once a decade so I guess if that is the case, this is our last chance this decade to beat them.

The osu/Ia game is like Ia/psu only with whip cream and a cherry on top. They just have our number in spades, and hearts, and diamonds, and clubs. If Iowa wants to beat osu, KF cannot be conservative, which means we aren't going to beat them often.
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This is actually the first year of a new decade. We beat them in 2004 to get that decade's win. But if we lose this year, there's no way to tell what's going to happen over the next 9 years in Columbus. Tressel will likely hang it up, and they could get a John Cooper in there, who knows?
 


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