Got killed on 3D stocks, give me some new ones to recover with?
- Thread starter hawksnflu
- Start date
Golfer
Well-Known Member
Well, I'm gonna get crucified for this, but I enjoy trading, so here's my take. The last 7 times the government either shut down, or most recently, got close to the debt ceiling and/or shut down, the VIX took off. It is due to shut down again in February. Through extraordinary measures, they can keep going until March.
Buy the VIX, or maybe the VXX. Short term play to Feb or March only. Likely you'll see it drop until at least January. It's not a trade for the scared. Set a % gain to get out at. If that's 20%, then sell at 20%, and never look back at how much you left on the table.
I did calender spreads and strangles on both VIX and VXX. I also bought Feb. futures contracts quite a while back. I shorted the QQQ, DJ and S&P for Feb and March also. If you're not an options trader or futures trader, best to just the buy index.
VIX options track the futures contract for the expiration month. VXX options are a bit more friendly for those that don't understand the cash settlement, different expiration date and European style exercise rights of VIX. It's also an ETN, and although the IRS hasn't really spoken to taxation, it is generally thought of as a capital gain rather than ordinary income.
Tech stocks haven't had the run up the rest of the market has. After we get a decent correction, and that might not be a while, these could be buys. Gold and Silver miners are depressed right now. Long term play. Figure out how much it costs them to get it out of the ground, and what the spot and futures prices are. With no end in sight of printing money, you might need to hang on to these for a while.
Am I a buyer of stocks now? No way, no how, never. The market is setting records it seems every other day. The stupid money is starting to pour in. I might be missing out on another up year, but I like to make money, some money, pigs generally get slaughtered. I'm a buyer of short term VIX plays, and long term commodities right now. I'm short the overall market, and I'm patient.
Disclaimer - I do not sell securities or insurance products. I trade a lot. I like it. A hobby if you will. I've been wrong before. Not often. I set limits up and down, and I'm disciplined.
Buy the VIX, or maybe the VXX. Short term play to Feb or March only. Likely you'll see it drop until at least January. It's not a trade for the scared. Set a % gain to get out at. If that's 20%, then sell at 20%, and never look back at how much you left on the table.
I did calender spreads and strangles on both VIX and VXX. I also bought Feb. futures contracts quite a while back. I shorted the QQQ, DJ and S&P for Feb and March also. If you're not an options trader or futures trader, best to just the buy index.
VIX options track the futures contract for the expiration month. VXX options are a bit more friendly for those that don't understand the cash settlement, different expiration date and European style exercise rights of VIX. It's also an ETN, and although the IRS hasn't really spoken to taxation, it is generally thought of as a capital gain rather than ordinary income.
Tech stocks haven't had the run up the rest of the market has. After we get a decent correction, and that might not be a while, these could be buys. Gold and Silver miners are depressed right now. Long term play. Figure out how much it costs them to get it out of the ground, and what the spot and futures prices are. With no end in sight of printing money, you might need to hang on to these for a while.
Am I a buyer of stocks now? No way, no how, never. The market is setting records it seems every other day. The stupid money is starting to pour in. I might be missing out on another up year, but I like to make money, some money, pigs generally get slaughtered. I'm a buyer of short term VIX plays, and long term commodities right now. I'm short the overall market, and I'm patient.
Disclaimer - I do not sell securities or insurance products. I trade a lot. I like it. A hobby if you will. I've been wrong before. Not often. I set limits up and down, and I'm disciplined.
exactly what i was looking for, sounds like some good advice. need to stick to the my rules and not be greedy. thanks for the info. def will follow up on it.
HawkIMalaise
Banned
Dorman (DORM) Look at the history.
HaydensUncle
Well-Known Member
Great advice Golfer. You may be interested in a film I'm working on: The Bubble: Who Caused It. Who Called It. What's Next? | The Bubble
clicheusername3
Banned
I suggest Anaconda Realty.
Nice.
Options are not for the normal investor. If you want to compound your losses start trading options. Doing strangles, straddles, etc is for experienced traders.
okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
I would not recommend holding VXX that long. VXX needs to be a very short term play. Look at the 5 year chart. The structure of the fund is such that the leverage they use to buy the underlying contracts just completely obliterates the net asset value of the fund - it is a wasting asset. They've reverse split it a whole bunch of times because it will only mirror the actual VIX over a period of a few days and the rest of the time the NAV is just eroding.
Golfer
Well-Known Member
True. I bought and closed in the VXX money puts. I almost exercised. What I'm doing is an arbitrage between VXX and VIX. There's a spread between VIX and VXX almost every day. I go for about 2% every two to three days. Boring stuff, except it makes about 144% per annum if you can pick the correct times. Gubmit shut down time seems to be the correct time.
1standgoalat1
Banned
My broker is EF Hutten....
buy low, sell high
Seriously, if you need to ask here, you may want to re-think your financial plans
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okeefe4prez
Well-Known Member
E.F Hutton? You sure you're not using Drexel Burnham?
ColoradoHAWKEYE
Well-Known Member
Tips are like Ti, er (breasts)...everyone has them and everyone wants to see what the other has. Some are certainly better than others, and some fail miserably. Know that only a couple of people will benefit from a good tip directly and everyone else is just on the outside staring at the potential success of the tip. Further, if the tip is just given to them indiscriminately, a person will probably not use it correctly, and cash in too soon or too late...And of course there is the adage that with tips, the bigger the better! 
PJHawk
Well-Known Member
I have a hard time believing that kind of market inefficiency exits and find it even more unbelievable that a retail trader could consistently profit on said arbitrage.
