Rooting Interest Tomorrow

[WindsorHawk]

Tennessee is probably getting in even if they lose, not so for Alabama.

Iowa needs Tenn to win so Alabama is officially off the bubble.
A Tenn loss would put them neck-and-neck with Iowa on the bubble and move Alabama up there too.

Need to have UT win that one.

I'm pulling for Tennessee since it eliminates another team. We would stay ahead of Alabama if we both win but if they win tomorrow and we lose tomorrow we are now behind Alabama and some people are still talking about Tennessee. At this point I want to eliminate...eliminate...eliminate...

 

[jesterapparel]

Tennessee is probably getting in even if they lose, not so for Alabama.

Iowa needs Tenn to win so Alabama is officially off the bubble.
A Tenn loss would put them neck-and-neck with Iowa on the bubble and move Alabama up there too.

Need to have UT win that one.

I agree.

Tennessee really should be a lock at this point.
They have 9 top 100 rpi wins, 4 of those are in the top 50. No real bad losses.

NCAA College Basketball RPI Rankings - ESPN

 

[storminspank]

HERE IS MY LIST -


For Bubble implications:

NC State over Virginia
Duke over Maryland
UTEP over Southern Miss
St Louis over Charlotte
Temple over UMASS
Vanderbilt over Kentucky
Butler over LaSalle
Tennessee over Alabama
Missouri over Ole Miss


Need to get rid of bid stealers too:

Memphis over Tulsa
Miami over BC
Florida over LSU
VCU over St Joes
Oregon over Utah

 

[storminspank]

I'm pulling for Tennessee since it eliminates another team. We would stay ahead of Alabama if we both win but if they win tomorrow and we lose tomorrow we are now behind Alabama and some people are still talking about Tennessee. At this point I want to eliminate...eliminate...eliminate...

This is the mindset, for sure.

 

[ssckelley]

But could an Iowa win over MSU leapfrog them over both Tennessee and Alabama if Alabama wins against Tennessee? Tennessee is widely considered one of the last 4 into the tournament so I would think it would be more important that they lose than eliminating Alabama who is considered a "next four" out.

 

[MBHHawk]

Why do we want Indiana over Illinois? We beat Illinois. Also, I'd rather play them if it gets that far!

 

[storminspank]

And just a sidenote on Texas-Pan Am, the winner of their tourney does not get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney. That conf's autobid doesn't start until 2020. The winner gets a bid to the CIT. But more wins for T-PA only helps Iowa.

 

[WindsorHawk]

And just a sidenote on Texas-Pan Am, the winner of their tourney does not get an at-large bid to the NCAA Tourney. That conf's autobid doesn't start until 2020. The winner gets a bid to the CIT. But more wins for T-PA only helps Iowa.

2020? I just pray I'm still around to see it...

 

[ssckelley]

Why do we want Indiana over Illinois? We beat Illinois. Also, I'd rather play them if it gets that far!

It is all about RPI, since Iowa played Indiana twice and Illinois only once Iowa's opponent record would go up 2-1 if Indiana wins. The RPI measures your opponents win percentage, it does not matter if you beat them or lost to them. If Illinois was to upset Indiana then Iowa's opponent win percentage would actually go down (1 win and 2 losses).

Thanks to a fellow Hawk fan for explaining to me yesterday how the RPI actually works.

 

[H8IAST8]

HERE IS MY LIST -


For Bubble implications:

NC State over Virginia
Duke over Maryland
UTEP over Southern Miss
St Louis over Charlotte
Temple over UMASS
Vanderbilt over Kentucky
Butler over LaSalle
Tennessee over Alabama
Missouri over Ole Miss


Need to get rid of bid stealers too:

Memphis over Tulsa
Miami over BC
Florida over LSU
VCU over St Joes
Oregon over Utah

In order of importance
Memphis
NC State
Duke
Vandy
Butler
Mizzou
Tossup on Tennessee & Bama (I'd lean Bama over Tennessee)
St. Louis
Temple
UTEP

 

[KnightHawk9]

Other than Iowa over MSU here are some other games to keep an eye on

RPI Help
Indiana over Illinois
Wisconsin over Michigan
Nebraska over Ohio State
Iowa St over Kansas
Texas Pan Am over Chicago St

Bubble Watch
Vandy over Kentucky
Butler over LaSalle
NC State over Virginia
Alabama over Tennessee
UTEP over Southern Miss
Missouri over Ole Miss

Did I miss any?

I feel like we'd want Ohio State to beat Neb. Assuming we have to beat MSU to have any chance of getting in, we'd face the winner of Neb/OSU next. At that point, a loss to OSU doesn't hurt that bad, and a win vs Neb doesn't really help. If we actually did beat OSU, wouldn't we be a lock, even without winning the championship game?

 

[KnightHawk9]

HERE IS MY LIST -


For Bubble implications:

NC State over Virginia
Duke over Maryland
UTEP over Southern Miss
St Louis over Charlotte
Temple over UMASS
Vanderbilt over Kentucky
Butler over LaSalle
Tennessee over Alabama
Missouri over Ole Miss


Need to get rid of bid stealers too:

Memphis over Tulsa
Miami over BC
Florida over LSU
VCU over St Joes
Oregon over Utah

Is Oregon not on the bubble?

 

[H8IAST8]

I think Oregon is pretty solid. I look at thm like i look at Cal. However, an Oregon loss drops them out of the top 50 taking 2 losses from Cal, which would hurt their resume.

 

[PCHawk]

I feel like we'd want Ohio State to beat Neb. Assuming we have to beat MSU to have any chance of getting in, we'd face the winner of Neb/OSU next. At that point, a loss to OSU doesn't hurt that bad, and a win vs Neb doesn't really help. If we actually did beat OSU, wouldn't we be a lock, even without winning the championship game?

I was thinking this as well. If we lost to Nebraska it might knock us back off the bubble.

 

[ssckelley]

I feel like we'd want Ohio State to beat Neb. Assuming we have to beat MSU to have any chance of getting in, we'd face the winner of Neb/OSU next. At that point, a loss to OSU doesn't hurt that bad, and a win vs Neb doesn't really help. If we actually did beat OSU, wouldn't we be a lock, even without winning the championship game?

I had some of those same thoughts but here is my reasoning. Beating MSU is what gets Iowa a serious look into the tournament (IMO, should be in) but winning the semi final game makes Iowa a lock. What is holding Iowa back has been the RPI, which is a product of a horrible non conference schedule, and for the RPI it does not make much difference if Iowa beats Nebraska or Ohio State. All Ohio State gives you is a little extra push in the opponent record catagory. But what is moving Iowa's RPI needle the most right now is their own winning percentage, a win in the BTT (neutral court) counts as a full win in the weighted win total and I like Iowa's chances over Nebraska more than I do Ohio State. RPI Forecast has Iowa at 48 if they reach the BTT finals.

As far as tournament resume is concerned Nebraska getting into the top 100 turns them into a good win, not a quality win like Ohio State/MSU, but still another good win against a top 100 RPI team. Even a loss to Iowa in the semi finals should keep them in the top 100 (RPI Forecast has them at 86).

 

[KnightHawk9]

I feel like we'd want Ohio State to beat Neb. Assuming we have to beat MSU to have any chance of getting in, we'd face the winner of Neb/OSU next. At that point, a loss to OSU doesn't hurt that bad, and a win vs Neb doesn't really help. If we actually did beat OSU, wouldn't we be a lock, even without winning the championship game?

I had some of those same thoughts but here is my reasoning. Beating MSU is what gets Iowa a serious look into the tournament (IMO, should be in) but winning the semi final game makes Iowa a lock. What is holding Iowa back has been the RPI, which is a product of a horrible non conference schedule, and for the RPI it does not make much difference if Iowa beats Nebraska or Ohio State. All Ohio State gives you is a little extra push in the opponent record catagory. But what is moving Iowa's RPI needle the most right now is their own winning percentage, a win in the BTT (neutral court) counts as a full win in the weighted win total and I like Iowa's chances over Nebraska more than I do Ohio State. RPI Forecast has Iowa at 48 if they reach the BTT finals.

As far as tournament resume is concerned Nebraska getting into the top 100 turns them into a good win, not a quality win like Ohio State/MSU, but still another good win against a top 100 RPI team. Even a loss to Iowa in the semi finals should keep them in the top 100 (RPI Forecast has them at 86).

Thanks for the feedback. I'm really starting to feel like beating MSU won't be enough. But if we could manage to beat #8 MSU and #10 OSU, that would have to be enough.

 

[WindsorHawk]

We're on the fringe right now...before a win over Michigan State. Beating Michigan State is looking more and more like we're in...won't say a lock but in real good shape.

 

[bcl20]

I had some of those same thoughts but here is my reasoning. Beating MSU is what gets Iowa a serious look into the tournament (IMO, should be in) but winning the semi final game makes Iowa a lock. What is holding Iowa back has been the RPI, which is a product of a horrible non conference schedule, and for the RPI it does not make much difference if Iowa beats Nebraska or Ohio State. All Ohio State gives you is a little extra push in the opponent record catagory. But what is moving Iowa's RPI needle the most right now is their own winning percentage, a win in the BTT (neutral court) counts as a full win in the weighted win total and I like Iowa's chances over Nebraska more than I do Ohio State. RPI Forecast has Iowa at 48 if they reach the BTT finals.

As far as tournament resume is concerned Nebraska getting into the top 100 turns them into a good win, not a quality win like Ohio State/MSU, but still another good win against a top 100 RPI team. Even a loss to Iowa in the semi finals should keep them in the top 100 (RPI Forecast has them at 86).

RPI, no good wins away from home and no "Signature" win are the three things that really hurt us. A win today solves the last two and strongly improves the RPI. I have a hard time seeing us left out with a loss tonight.

 

[ssckelley]

RPI, no good wins away from home and no "Signature" win are the three things that really hurt us. A win today solves the last two and strongly improves the RPI. I have a hard time seeing us left out with a loss tonight.

Well MSU would give us that "signature win", heck they are ranked 7th in RPI (10th in the AP). With Ohio State winning you only add 1 more game against the RPI top 100 (and top 50), while with Nebraska winning you pick up 3 (2-1 potential record). Plus I would be a lot more comfortable with Iowa's chances in advancing to the finals against Nebraska who would also be playing their 3rd game in 3 days. You can really go either way with it.

 

[WindsorHawk]

Nebraska beating Purdue is 1 thing. Beating Ohio State is something altogether different. I'm not too concerned about this because I think there's about a 90% chance that Ohio State is advancing.