How many at-large spots are open right now?

SpiderRico

SpiderRico

Well-Known Member
In my opinion, based on where things are at right now, I think there are 7 at large spots up for grabs. The following are the conferences and locks I see as of now (teams with only one team are my best guess on who wins their conf tourney):

America East - Vermont
A10 - Butler, VCU, LaSalle
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, NC State
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Okie State, Oklahoma, ISU
Big East - Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinatti
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - High Point
Big 10 - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, OSU
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Northeastern
Conf USA - Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon - Valpo
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Niagara
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk State
Mo Valley - Wichita State, Creighton
MWC - New Mexico, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV
Northeast - Bryant
Ohio Valley - Belmont
PAC 12 - Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern - Elon
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Southern
Summit - North Dakota State
Sunbelt - Midd Tenn State
West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
WAC - Louisiana Tech

All told, that equals 61 spots. That leaves 7 left. So who are some of the contenders for those last 7? In my mind, there are 20 teams left vying for those 7 spots. The teams and their current RPI are as follows:

St Louis (56)
UMass (51)
Charlotte (59)
Temple (39)
Virginia (75)
Maryland (70)
Baylor (53)
St Johns (52)
Villanova (62)
Minnesota (13) - I have them here because their remaining schedule is absolutely brutal and I don't expect their RPI to continue to be this high
Illinois (25) - I hate Illinois, so I put them here! :)
Iowa (91) - The only reason they are here is because their remaining schedule gets infinitely easier and they have a chance to move up to mid 50's or higher
UCF (86)
Indiana State (48)
Boise State (44)
Wyoming (61)
ASU (65)
Colorado (18)
Stanford (57)
BYU (64)

In my opinion, for Iowa, it won't come down to RPI because I just don't think we can get it up much past 52-55. It will come down to finishing 6th in the toughest conference. If we do that, I think we're in. Because, once again, the bubble just isn't that strong again this year.
 


It'd be nice to keep this thread going the rest of the season and update the list every so often. Then I know who to root for, or against haha.
 




SpiderRico said:
In my opinion, based on where things are at right now, I think there are 7 at large spots up for grabs. The following are the conferences and locks I see as of now (teams with only one team are my best guess on who wins their conf tourney):

America East - Vermont
A10 - Butler, VCU, LaSalle
ACC - Miami, Duke, North Carolina, NC State
Atlantic Sun - Florida Gulf Coast
Big 12 - Kansas, Kansas State, Okie State, Oklahoma, ISU
Big East - Syracuse, Georgetown, Marquette, Pitt, Notre Dame, Louisville, Cincinatti
Big Sky - Montana
Big South - High Point
Big 10 - Indiana, Michigan, Michigan State, Wisconsin, OSU
Big West - Long Beach State
Colonial - Northeastern
Conf USA - Memphis, Southern Miss
Horizon - Valpo
Ivy - Harvard
MAAC - Niagara
MAC - Akron
MEAC - Norfolk State
Mo Valley - Wichita State, Creighton
MWC - New Mexico, Colorado State, San Diego State, UNLV
Northeast - Bryant
Ohio Valley - Belmont
PAC 12 - Arizona, Oregon, UCLA
Patriot - Bucknell
SEC - Florida, Kentucky, Ole Miss, Missouri
Southern - Elon
Southland - Stephen F Austin
SWAC - Southern
Summit - North Dakota State
Sunbelt - Midd Tenn State
West Coast - Gonzaga, St. Mary's
WAC - Louisiana Tech

All told, that equals 61 spots. That leaves 7 left. So who are some of the contenders for those last 7? In my mind, there are 20 teams left vying for those 7 spots. The teams and their current RPI are as follows:

St Louis (56)
UMass (51)
Charlotte (59)
Temple (39)
Virginia (75)
Maryland (70)
Baylor (53)
St Johns (52)
Villanova (62)
Minnesota (13) - I have them here because their remaining schedule is absolutely brutal and I don't expect their RPI to continue to be this high
Illinois (25) - I hate Illinois, so I put them here! :)
Iowa (91) - The only reason they are here is because their remaining schedule gets infinitely easier and they have a chance to move up to mid 50's or higher
UCF (86)
Indiana State (48)
Boise State (44)
Wyoming (61)
ASU (65)
Colorado (18)
Stanford (57)
BYU (64)

In my opinion, for Iowa, it won't come down to RPI because I just don't think we can get it up much past 52-55. It will come down to finishing 6th in the toughest conference. If we do that, I think we're in. Because, once again, the bubble just isn't that strong again this year.
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I don't think ISU and OU are locks at all.
 


Cydkar said:
I don't think ISU and OU are locks at all.
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Yeah, the media around here keeps talking about how they think ISU is in for sure, but I'm not yet buying it. They need to win some more games, especially on the road, before I put them in the "in" collum.
 


Cydkar said:
I don't think ISU and OU are locks at all.
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OU is a lock. ISU I agree. Finishing 6th in BIG won't mean anything inf IL or MN are right behind. It is because Iowa's wins will be 6 against bottom feeders. Against the bad bottom feeders, MN only has 1 game and IL has IA as their weakest team played only 1 time. Facts are facts.

If IL and Minny don't collapse, IA needs some statement wins over more than just IL or Minny.
 


ILHawk said:
OU is a lock. ISU I agree. Finishing 6th in BIG won't mean anything inf IL or MN are right behind. It is because Iowa's wins will be 6 against bottom feeders. Against the bad bottom feeders, MN only has 1 game and IL has IA as their weakest team played only 1 time. Facts are facts.

If IL and Minny don't collapse, IA needs some statement wins over more than just IL or Minny.
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It's not Illinois verse Minnesota verse Iowa to get in. It's all 3 verse the rest of the bubble teams. Big10 Bubble teams > rest of NCAA Bubble teams. Big 10 can get 8 in.

Finishing 6th in the best conference in the nation will definitely mean something regardless of who is behind or infront of them.
 


DunderMifflinHk said:
It's not Illinois verse Minnesota verse Iowa to get in. It's all 3 verse the rest of the bubble teams. Big10 Bubble teams > rest of NCAA Bubble teams. Big 10 can get 8 in.

Finishing 6th in the best conference in the nation will definitely mean something regardless of who is behind or infront of them.
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Agree that a 6th place finish would be monumental, but in the sense of this post, it's not the 3 of us against the other conferences. It's Iowa against all the other bubble teams, including MN and IL.
 


ILHawk said:
OU is a lock. ISU I agree. Finishing 6th in BIG won't mean anything inf IL or MN are right behind. It is because Iowa's wins will be 6 against bottom feeders. Against the bad bottom feeders, MN only has 1 game and IL has IA as their weakest team played only 1 time. Facts are facts.

If IL and Minny don't collapse, IA needs some statement wins over more than just IL or Minny.
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How is OU in and ISU out? They have the same record and both have only beaten 1 top 25 team. OU's RPI is 15 spots better (ISU is 37th), but ISU spanked OU on the 4th.
 


Stewo said:
How is OU in and ISU out? They have the same record and both have only beaten 1 top 25 team. OU's RPI is 15 spots better (ISU is 37th), but ISU spanked OU on the 4th.
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Better coach

Better schedule

Top 25 current ranking in rpi
 
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ILhawk, I've seen differing opinions on RPI, more have been that RPI doesn't matter at this point in the season, and to wait till the end. So why use that in your argument saying that OU is a lock?
 


Here are some random thoughts.

I think the Big 12 gets 5 as OP said...which 5 will change weekly between ISU, OU and Baylor.

If Iowa finishes 6th in the conference which almost certainly means sweeping Minnesota and Illinois in those 2 games then Iowa likely does make it. We will have just beaten both of those 2 teams and finished ahead of them in the conference...because we just beat them. Facts are facts.

I have seen North Carolina play a few times this year. They aren't very good. They will probably make it on their name but I don't think they are a lock. The ACC only got 3 bids in the not too distant past so it could happen.

Looking at the teams vying for the 7 spots per this thread's theme...I don't see 5 teams that are better than the 3 Big Ten teams on that list.
 


CWooD4 said:
ILhawk, I've seen differing opinions on RPI, more have been that RPI doesn't matter at this point in the season, and to wait till the end. So why use that in your argument saying that OU is a lock?
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RPI always matters and will always be one of the main things the committee looks at...go to any site and RPI is a HUGE factor...just happens when you're 92nd in RPI its "not that big of a deal anymore"
 


RPI is 1 variable but not the only variable. It also doesn't matter if it's 92. They will use the number at the end of the year...which will be much better if Iowa beats everyone but Indiana.

PantherMania said:
RPI always matters and will always be one of the main things the committee looks at...go to any site and RPI is a HUGE factor...just happens when you're 92nd in RPI its "not that big of a deal anymore"
Click to expand...
 




WindsorHawk said:
RPI is 1 variable but not the only variable. It also doesn't matter if it's 92. They will use the number at the end of the year...which will be much better if Iowa beats everyone but Indiana.
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Iowa's RPI actually got worse after they beat Northwestern. If they win every game but Indiana it will go up quite a bit but I don't see it getting to the 50's. Only two wins (Minnesota and Illinois) would significantly help it and it's a pretty big IF to finish the season 6-1 so let's not get carried away here...
 


PantherMania said:
Iowa's RPI actually got worse after they beat Northwestern. If they win every game but Indiana it will go up quite a bit but I don't see it getting to the 50's. Only two wins (Minnesota and Illinois) would significantly help it and it's a pretty big IF to finish the season 6-1 so let's not get carried away here...
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Remember, though, RPI is also made up of your opponent's win % and your opponents' opponent's win %. Combining all that, and assuming a 6-1 finish, I think Iowa's RPI will max out at probably 54 or so before BTT time.
 




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