4th Through 9th in the Big Ten

W

WindsorHawk

Well-Known Member
I'm not making any predictions...have already proven my lack of skill. Here are the remaining schedules of the teams likely vying for 4th through 9th in the conference. I'm assuming Michigan, Indiana and Michigan State will be at the top and NW, Nebraska and Penn State will be at the bottom.

Ohio State (6-2) -- Tougher schedule in 2nd half
@ NE
@ MI
IN
NW
@ WI
MN
MSU
@ NW
@ IN
IL

Wisconsin (5-3) -- Chance to win 5 of last 6
@ IL
IA
MI
@ MN
OSU
@ NW
NE
PU
@ MSU
@ PSU

Purdue (4-3) -- Very tough 2nd half schedule
IN
@ NW
@ PSU
MSU
@ IL
@ IN
NW
@ IA
@ WI
MI
MN

Minnesota (4-4) -- Can they beat anyone on the road...other than NE
IA
@ MSU
IL
WI
@ IA
@ OSU
IN
PSU
@ NE
@ PU

Iowa (2-5) -- Favorable 2nd half schedule
PSU
@ MN
@ WI
NW
@ PSU
MN
@ NE
PU
@ IN
IL
NE

Illinois (2-5) -- Very tough schedule
@ MSU
WI
IN
@ MN
PU
@ NW
PSU
@ MI
NE
@ IA
@ OSU
 


All I can say is it'll be a dog fight....lots of flipping back and forth. The strong will survive....hopefully the Hawks end up towards the top of this list heading into the B1G Tourney...
 


Here's some more useless information. Below is the total number of remaining games each of these teams has against the bottom 3 (home or away) and at home against the other 5 teams on this list. The 2nd number is projected wins when adding the 1st number to each team's current win total. Potential wins against the top 3 are not considered for any of the 6. Bottom line...everyone sweeps the bottom 3 and holds serve at home against the rest of this group.

OSU = 5 (11)
WI = 6 (11)
PU = 4 (8)
MN = 5 (9)
IA = 8 (10)
IL = 5 (7)
 


The final standings could then look something like this. I know they almost certainly won't but it's an educated guess...attempting to eliminate any bias. The top 3 are positioned based on national ranking and the bottom 3 based on current records.

1 - MI
2 - IN
3 - MSU
4 - OSU
4 - WI
6 - Iowa
7 - MN
8 - PU
9 - IL
10 - NW
11 - NE
12 - PSU

Despite the poor outside shooting, heartbreaking losses, tough schedule, etc. we only have to win the games we could/should and the potential for a 6th place finish is there. Even if MN were to sweep us we just swap positions with them and are alone in 7th...based on this particular handicapping.

We open the BTT with either NE or PSU and avoid MI and IN in the 2nd round...the 2 I don't want to see on Friday. I'm still optimistic we will be dancing.
 


WindsorHawk said:
Here's some more useless information. Below is the total number of remaining games each of these teams has against the bottom 3 (home or away) and at home against the other 5 teams on this list. The 2nd number is projected wins when adding the 1st number to each team's current win total. Potential wins against the top 3 are not considered for any of the 6. Bottom line...everyone sweeps the bottom 3 and holds serve at home against the rest of this group.

OSU = 5 (11)
WI = 6 (11)
PU = 4 (8)
MN = 5 (9)
IA = 8 (10)
IL = 5 (7)
Click to expand...

Puts us in 6th ahead of Minnesota and Illinois, which is nice. But I can't yet see how Minn would finish only one game better than Purdue.
 






WindsorHawk said:
Here's some more useless information. Below is the total number of remaining games each of these teams has against the bottom 3 (home or away) and at home against the other 5 teams on this list. The 2nd number is projected wins when adding the 1st number to each team's current win total. Potential wins against the top 3 are not considered for any of the 6. Bottom line...everyone sweeps the bottom 3 and holds serve at home against the rest of this group.

OSU = 5 (11)
WI = 6 (11)
PU = 4 (8)
MN = 5 (9)
IA = 8 (10)
IL = 5 (7)
Click to expand...


If this happened and we beat Wisconsin we would tie for 4th. I think we should do that.
 


That's being pretty generous. If I had to predict it I think it will be the same at the end of the year. Hawks and Illannoy could flip flop.
 


storminspank said:
Good stuff.
Click to expand...

Very good stuff. I love it when someone like Windsorhawk does some analysis and thoughtful predictions based on facts and history.

That's why I keep coming back to HN and the forums... although this thread will probably now be inundated with trolls, hate, obscure ways to be negative and to give-up on The Iowa BB team this year.

tx again windsor and brace yourself for all the debbie downers....

so you think...is?

yes, of course...

IOWA is BACK
 


WindsorHawk said:
Here's some more useless information. Below is the total number of remaining games each of these teams has against the bottom 3 (home or away) and at home against the other 5 teams on this list. The 2nd number is projected wins when adding the 1st number to each team's current win total. Potential wins against the top 3 are not considered for any of the 6. Bottom line...everyone sweeps the bottom 3 and holds serve at home against the rest of this group.

OSU = 5 (11)
WI = 6 (11)
PU = 4 (8) -1 for NW loss
MN = 5 (9)
IA = 8 (10)
IL = 5 (7)
Click to expand...
 


WI = 12 (W @ IL)
OSU = 11
IA = 10
MN = 9
PU = 7 (L @ NW)
IL = 6 (L to WI)

This projection still has Iowa at 6th and Minnesota at 7th...with a clear break for the NCAA Tournament between Minnesota and Purdue. If this holds Iowa is almost certainly in the tournament.
 


Finishing 6th place is the best case scenario if everything goes right and they do not stumble against teams they are supposed to beat. I still do not see this happening.

Here is my worst case scenario:

@ WI - Very little chance Iowa wins this (3-7)
NW - this game still scares me Oglesby was hot at their place but since Iowa beat them at their place we pencil this in as a win right....right? (4-7)
@ PSU - If I am Penn State I am looking at this game as winnable, if Iowa comes out shooting like they did against OSU or Purdue they might lose this game. But again everyone is penciling this one as a win (5-7)
MN - I still say Minnesota is one of the top 3/4 teams in the B1G talent wise. Just because Iowa came close at their place does not mean this one is automatic. Iowa will not be favored in this game. (5-8)
@ NE - This game really does scare me, they have played well against the top and have came close. Everything I said about Penn State applies here as well. I will go with the flow on this one (6-8)
PU - Iowa would have blown them out on their home court had they played as well as they did at Minnesota. For some reason I am more confident in this one than any other game (7-8)
@ IN - lmao, no way (7-9)
IL - Everyone now looks at this as a win but there is a good chance Illinois will be on a roll heading into this game as they might win 4 of their last 5. This could be a huge rivalry game for both teams with bubble implications for either side. IMO this is a 50/50 game and since I have not seen Iowa finish I put this as a loss (7-10)
NE - yup, senior day no excuses (8-10)

I am not sold on Iowa winning both at PSU and at Nebraska so we could be looking at a 7-11 season which is my worst case scenario and my best case scenario is 9-9. I think we are dreaming to say Iowa can finish 10-8 with a team that has proven over and over that they cannot finish. If I am wrong I would be thrilled for everyone to slap me in the face with this and I will gladly eat my crow (tastes like chicken right?).
 


kelley, from what I've seen of Neb and Penn St, they seem to be tough enough to keep games close, but not good enough to win any of them. When Neb beat Penn St, they tried to give it away at the end, but PSU got 6 free throws on their last possession and made one of them. We'll see tomorrow what Iowa really has in road games and if the Minnesota game was an anomaly, but based on Sunday I think they are capable on the road. Capable is good enough to beat NE and PSU. Also Minnesota outside of the Barn is a completely different team. You may be right about Illinois, though.
 


The problem I have with feeling confident about Iowa winning both games is twice I have seen this team go on the road and shoot 30% and one of them was against Purdue.
 


volhawk50 said:
kelley, from what I've seen of Neb and Penn St, they seem to be tough enough to keep games close, but not good enough to win any of them. When Neb beat Penn St, they tried to give it away at the end, but PSU got 6 free throws on their last possession and made one of them. We'll see tomorrow what Iowa really has in road games and if the Minnesota game was an anomaly, but based on Sunday I think they are capable on the road. Capable is good enough to beat NE and PSU. Also Minnesota outside of the Barn is a completely different team. You may be right about Illinois, though.
Click to expand...


This description fits a lot of teams.
 


You lost me on this part of your post. Illinois has not been on a roll since the conference season started. Where is Illinois winning 4 out of 5? I have been basing these projections on a generic system with no intended bias toward any one team.

For the sake of this post I will give my opinion on Illinois in their remaining games. I think both NW and Purdue are 50-50 games so I gave them the game at home and a loss on the road...to a team that already beat them on their home floor. I put their ceiling at 7 conference wins with 6 more likely. I like our NCAA chances much better than Illinois...don't think they will even be close to the bubble conversation.

Also, Iowa could very well have won 5 of their last 6 coming into this game. The loss being a tough beating at Indiana after 5 straight wins...meaning the team will be hungry to get back on the right track at home.

IN - L
@ MN - L
PU - W
@ NW - L
PSU - W
@ MI - L
NE - W
@ IA - L
@ OSU - L

ssckelley said:
IL - Everyone now looks at this as a win but there is a good chance Illinois will be on a roll heading into this game as they might win 4 of their last 5. This could be a huge rivalry game for both teams with bubble implications for either side. IMO this is a 50/50 game and since I have not seen Iowa finish I put this as a loss (7-10).
Click to expand...
 
Last edited:


WindsorHawk said:
You lost me on this part of your post. Illinois has not been on a roll since the conference season started. Where is Illinois winning 4 out of 5? I have been basing these projections on a generic system with no intended bias toward any one team.
Click to expand...

No, they could be on a roll coming into Carver winning 4 of their last 5. The big IF is whether they can win @Northwestern or not.

I like our NCAA chances much better than Illinois...don't think they will even be close to the bubble conversation.
Click to expand...

Unless Illinois completely falls apart they will be in the bubble conversation when they play Iowa. As bad as they have been in conference play they still own about the 10th toughest schedule with quality wins over Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio State. The RPI rankings I have seen still has them in the top 50. Even if they only win the 3 games they are projected to that will put them at 17-12 when they play Iowa.
 


Okay, I will concede that they are still in the conversation if they win the 4 out of 5...fits the assumptions I have applied in this thread. I still like Iowa a lot in this game since the same premise has us winning 5 out of 6...every bit as likely IMO. I do think Illinois has to win the previously mentioned 4, beat us and win at Ohio State on Senior Day to become a bubble team. I know they had that great non-conference run but 7-11 in the conference is 4 games under .500. I don't see it happening...something like 5-5 in their last 10 as well.

ssckelley said:
No, they could be on a roll coming into Carver winning 4 of their last 5. The big IF is whether they can win @Northwestern or not.



Unless Illinois completely falls apart they will be in the bubble conversation when they play Iowa. As bad as they have been in conference play they still own about the 10th toughest schedule with quality wins over Butler, Gonzaga, and Ohio State. The RPI rankings I have seen still has them in the top 50. Even if they only win the 3 games they are projected to that will put them at 17-12 when they play Iowa.
Click to expand...
 


WindsorHawk said:
Okay, I will concede that they are still in the conversation if they win the 4 out of 5...fits the assumptions I have applied in this thread. I still like Iowa a lot in this game since the same premise has us winning 5 out of 6...every bit as likely IMO. I do think Illinois has to win the previously mentioned 4, beat us and win at Ohio State on Senior Day to become a bubble team. I know they had that great non-conference run but 7-11 in the conference is 4 games under .500. I don't see it happening...something like 5-5 in their last 10 as well.
Click to expand...

I believe this should be the case, but Illinois is going to be way overrated. I think no matter what we do, if Illinois finishes with 18 wins, the committee is going to select Illinois instead of Iowa, simply because Ill beat two good teams 4 months before the tournament.
 


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