Your Observations about NCAA D1 Basketball

[ChosenChildren]

I didn't say they were #200 in defensive efficiency. I don't know what numbers are calculated there.

I said they ranked 200th in points per possession defense because that's exactly where they rank.

I looked up your site. You are correct - Iowa was #200 when the rankings are not adjusted for strength of schedule. Pomeroy adjusts for strength of schedule, and ranked Iowa #123. It doesn't really matter, but I truly believe that the Pomeroy system is a more reliable indicator of defensive efficiency. Iowa in 2016-17 gave up 1.02 points per possession.

What Pomeroy is basically saying is that if you play a very tough schedule (which Iowa did, #66 in the country), giving up 1.02 points per possession is better than a team giving up .95 ppp against a very weak schedule (as an example). You have to adjust for strength of schedule before you can compare apples to apples. I'm no expert, but I know the NCAA selection committee used Pomeroy as one of their final ranking indicators.

 

[PCHawk]

One hundred percent correct. IMHO... Refs worry more about the final foul tally than making correct calls too. Everyone knows and hears that refs could call a foul every trip down the court and they use that as a justification for bad refereeing. The unintended consequences of that is that it favors aggressive teams doubly because when they get a lopsided foul count the refs shift focus to try and even up the calls so it doesn't look like they are favoring a team. BUT that actually helps the aggressive team twice because they start calling tick tack fouls on the less aggressive team and let the more aggressive team get away with more physical play until the fouls even out.

If you coach your team to play super aggressive sooner or later in the game the refs will adjust so it doesn't look like they are being unfair. THE REFS END UP BEING FORCED TO MAKE THE GAME MORE PHYSICAL BY THE COACH AND TEAM THAT PLAYS VERY PHYSICAL!!!! A FOUL SHOULD ALWAYS BE A FOUL REGARDLESS OF HOW LOPSIDED THE TOTAL FOUL TALLY STANDS!

Then you have fans that say "if they're overly physical, we have to match it". That doesn't work because we are already getting called for random touch fouls and illegal screens just to keep it even. By the end of the game, they can get away with murder and we are getting phantom calls on us. See pretty much any MSU game the last decade plus.

 

[trj]

What the typical fan doesn't realize is the trail official gets beat down the floor on the long pass. So the camera angle shows the South Carolina guy catch the ball and control it and take the additional steps.

However, from the officials angle, he can't see the ball as the opponents back is facing him so he couldn't for certain know when control was established. It's a much tougher call than many realize and you'd much rather let a travel go than call one that wasn't there.

You make a fair point; however, the missed travel call in the S. Carolina/Florida game was really bad. Everyone in the arena saw it. It came at a time when S. Carolina was only up 2, they make that call(and it would have been correct) it changes everything.

 

[uihawk82]

Where he caught the ball
View attachment 2579
Where he shot the ball
View attachment 2580

Those pictures look like a legal catch and jump step and up with no travel. But there are at least a dozen travel calls a game that are missed and a ref shouldnt call it if he doesnt see it that way.

I didnt see it but people were saying a Florida player took 4 steps before a shot and then they called a foul on the wisky player.

 

[STLhawkeye20]

My observation has more to do with fan bases than college basketball in general. In this day and age fan bases are more bipolar than ever. Take Wisconsin as an example. I spent some times over on Buckyville during their late regular-season collapse. It was a bloodbath over there. People talking about wanting to fire Gard mid-season, people talking about how Wisconsin was doomed as a program moving forward, people having literal tantrums as if Wisconsin losing 5 of 6 somehow makes their life bad. Fast forward three weeks and Wisconsin has a Big Ten Championship appearance, upset a one seed in the Tournament, and was one running three-point heave as the clock expired away from an Elite 8. And now everyone's happy.

Same thing with respect to hiring and firing coaches. A couple bad seasons or some perceived inability to "get over the hump" in the NCAA Tournament and that's probably it for a coach. The only ones who seem to last anymore are the ones who have built up some capital with their program (Calipari, Kryzewski, Williams, etc.) or coaches who have been brought into a rebuilding situation (Fran, Rich Pitino, etc.) and have been basically given an enormous amount of time to bring the program back from the dead.

But basically I think programs/fans lose their heads far too easily

 

[trj]

My observation has more to do with fan bases than college basketball in general. In this day and age fan bases are more bipolar than ever. Take Wisconsin as an example. I spent some times over on Buckyville during their late regular-season collapse. It was a bloodbath over there. People talking about wanting to fire Gard mid-season, people talking about how Wisconsin was doomed as a program moving forward, people having literal tantrums as if Wisconsin losing 5 of 6 somehow makes their life bad. Fast forward three weeks and Wisconsin has a Big Ten Championship appearance, upset a one seed in the Tournament, and was one running three-point heave as the clock expired away from an Elite 8. And now everyone's happy.

Same thing with respect to hiring and firing coaches. A couple bad seasons or some perceived inability to "get over the hump" in the NCAA Tournament and that's probably it for a coach. The only ones who seem to last anymore are the ones who have built up some capital with their program (Calipari, Kryzewski, Williams, etc.) or coaches who have been brought into a rebuilding situation (Fran, Rich Pitino, etc.) and have been basically given an enormous amount of time to bring the program back from the dead.

But basically I think programs/fans lose their heads far too easily

I wonder if Wisconsin fans feel that 19 straight trips to the tourney is about to come to an end. Hence, the bipolar behavior.

 

[deanvogs]

My observation has more to do with fan bases than college basketball in general. In this day and age fan bases are more bipolar than ever. Take Wisconsin as an example. I spent some times over on Buckyville during their late regular-season collapse. It was a bloodbath over there. People talking about wanting to fire Gard mid-season, people talking about how Wisconsin was doomed as a program moving forward, people having literal tantrums as if Wisconsin losing 5 of 6 somehow makes their life bad. Fast forward three weeks and Wisconsin has a Big Ten Championship appearance, upset a one seed in the Tournament, and was one running three-point heave as the clock expired away from an Elite 8. And now everyone's happy.

Same thing with respect to hiring and firing coaches. A couple bad seasons or some perceived inability to "get over the hump" in the NCAA Tournament and that's probably it for a coach. The only ones who seem to last anymore are the ones who have built up some capital with their program (Calipari, Kryzewski, Williams, etc.) or coaches who have been brought into a rebuilding situation (Fran, Rich Pitino, etc.) and have been basically given an enormous amount of time to bring the program back from the dead.

But basically I think programs/fans lose their heads far too easily

Hawk fans would never be guilty of such behavior.

 

[eyekwah]

I truly believe that the Pomeroy system is a more reliable indicator of defensive efficiency. Iowa in 2016-17 gave up 1.02 points per possession.
What Pomeroy is basically saying is that if you play a very tough schedule (which Iowa did, #66 in the country), giving up 1.02 points per possession is better than a team giving up .95 ppp against a very weak schedule (as an example). You have to adjust for strength of schedule before you can compare apples to apples. I'm no expert, but I know the NCAA selection committee used Pomeroy as one of their final ranking indicators.

The following has nothing to do with Points Per Possession, but could indicate how just a few games could influence the numbers. In stats there are three measures to look at, median (middle), mode (occur most often) and mean (average). I set up a scale of points per forty minutes allowed to remove overtime periods. Iowa surrendered 65 to 75 points 14 times, the mode. It surrendered 76 to 85 points seven (7) times and six times gave up 86 to 95 points. Twice they gave up 96 plus. There were four (4) times where they surrendered less than 65 points. I'm not going to deal with standard deviation, but the games over 96 or below 65 pretty much make it obvious.

The defense got better after the Omaha game. Often the defense was surrendering around 77 points per game in many instances. The influence of the three point shot on the defense was not analyzed, but could very well suggest one reason. However, the lack of interior defense and turnovers might also.

 

[teachercoach]

Then you have fans that say "if they're overly physical, we have to match it". That doesn't work because we are already getting called for random touch fouls and illegal screens just to keep it even. By the end of the game, they can get away with murder and we are getting phantom calls on us. See pretty much any MSU game the last decade plus.

College Bball needs to do what the NHL did - go to a 4th official. Keep the 68 yr olds on each baseline, let the other 2 run the sidelines - would get rid of half of those 'flagrant or not' foul' delays from behind.

Totally agree on the disappearance of the 'travel shuffle'... makes for an uglier game and has filtered down to high school. Many kids say now 'You get 2 steps'

The iffy one-n-dones has changed programs.... MSU and Indiana are victims of big promising Fr who turn pro maybe a hair before the should, but teams can't quite replace. This is how a S.Carolina w/ some big experienced Seniors beat some raw, still developing 19 yr. olds.

 

[HawkGold]

College Bball needs to do what the NHL did - go to a 4th official. Keep the 68 yr olds on each baseline, let the other 2 run the sidelines - would get rid of half of those 'flagrant or not' foul' delays from behind.

Totally agree on the disappearance of the 'travel shuffle'... makes for an uglier game and has filtered down to high school. Many kids say now 'You get 2 steps'

The iffy one-n-dones has changed programs.... MSU and Indiana are victims of big promising Fr who turn pro maybe a hair before the should, but teams can't quite replace. This is how a S.Carolina w/ some big experienced Seniors beat some raw, still developing 19 yr. olds.

Your point about seniors and SC makes sense. However, in the end, after some upsets, this was the weakest Regional. SC is still very athletic.

 

[ChosenChildren]

The following has nothing to do with Points Per Possession, but could indicate how just a few games could influence the numbers. In stats there are three measures to look at, median (middle), mode (occur most often) and mean (average). I set up a scale of points per forty minutes allowed to remove overtime periods. Iowa surrendered 65 to 75 points 14 times, the mode. It surrendered 76 to 85 points seven (7) times and six times gave up 86 to 95 points. Twice they gave up 96 plus. There were four (4) times where they surrendered less than 65 points. I'm not going to deal with standard deviation, but the games over 96 or below 65 pretty much make it obvious.

The defense got better after the Omaha game. Often the defense was surrendering around 77 points per game in many instances. The influence of the three point shot on the defense was not analyzed, but could very well suggest one reason. However, the lack of interior defense and turnovers might also.

I don't want to beat a dead horse, but it really is about points per possession. Let me illustrate (all of this data is on the Pomeroy website):

Iowa's worst stretch of the season was the 4 game losing streak to Virginia, Memphis, Notre Dame and Omaha. Here were the points per possession given up:

VA 1.25
Memphis 1.32
ND 1.26
Omaha 1.27

Iowa averaged 1.02 for the year. Bottom line, Iowa's defense improved a bunch after than 4 game losing streak

 

[ibahawkeye]

I think the men's game needs to follow suite of the women's game and go to the 5 fouls = double bonus for each 10 minute segment. I think that will help clean the game up a bit and I also think that it makes it more difficult for teams trailing to come back. How many times do you see a team trailing committing fouls and end up getting back in the game or winning? And to me that seems a bit silly. I don't think there should be advantages gained by committing penalties or infractions like fouls. I understand free throw shooting is a part of the game but I also don't want to watch a free throw contest at the end of each close game.

I want to see officials hold coaches more accountable. It seems like every year coaches are getting away with more and more on the sidelines in both yelling and gestures. I get it's a billion dollar business and these coaches are making millions but I think it's really bad example of leadership. It starts with coaches and then goes to the college players. The high school coaches see it and then it gets to the high school level and on down to the high school players and eventually the youth. I would like to see this as a point of emphasis during the off season so the coaches are aware and then come season time, enforce the emphasis with Ts as needed.

Those are the 2 changes I would personally make.

 

[tksirius]

I think the men's game needs to follow suite of the women's game and go to the 5 fouls = double bonus for each 10 minute segment. I think that will help clean the game up a bit and I also think that it makes it more difficult for teams trailing to come back. How many times do you see a team trailing committing fouls and end up getting back in the game or winning? And to me that seems a bit silly. I don't think there should be advantages gained by committing penalties or infractions like fouls. I understand free throw shooting is a part of the game but I also don't want to watch a free throw contest at the end of each close game.

I want to see officials hold coaches more accountable. It seems like every year coaches are getting away with more and more on the sidelines in both yelling and gestures. I get it's a billion dollar business and these coaches are making millions but I think it's really bad example of leadership. It starts with coaches and then goes to the college players. The high school coaches see it and then it gets to the high school level and on down to the high school players and eventually the youth. I would like to see this as a point of emphasis during the off season so the coaches are aware and then come season time, enforce the emphasis with Ts as needed.

Those are the 2 changes I would personally make.

I want to see someone hold officials more accountable.