Your 2019 Iowa Hawkeyes

[Northside Hawk]

Is this team really that much better than the 2013-16 teams? Or does having the clutch genes make that much of a difference? Without looking up all the KenPom metrics I would guess it ranks favorably right with those teams. But what a difference to be able to win close games. In this conference, are you kidding?

Let's take a quadrant of four conference games; the two Northwestern games, Penn State and Indiana. All were potential losses. All were won with late clutch plays. Looking at Fran's "body of work" history would tell us that he loses three of those four.

Now let's look at the difference winning those four makes in the conference standings. We are 8-5, sixth place. If we lose three of those four games and award Northwestern and Indiana one extra corresponding win we are 5-8, tied for ninth place. That's the difference between being solidly on the NCAA'S and being close to the dreaded bubble, and getting the dreaded eight-nine seed and spending two hours being Zion Williamson's personal highlight reel.

We saw signs in 2017. JBo's Kohl Center dagger, his three point barrage at Maryland, the OT win vs Indiana when the dazzling Tom Crean put Jok on the free throw line about 25 times. But we had a damaging late season home loss to Illinois and and early exit in the conference tournament and they probably cost us an NCAA bid.

The little things that make all the difference. I've been hard on Fran for his performance in these games. I have to give him considerable credit for what is transpiring this year. I don't see a late collapse. I see 12-8 as a real possibility.

 

[MelroseHawkins]

This team has grown. Look at the last 3 games. Games they struggled with in the past. Against Michigan they were able to sustain their lead and hold off any Michigan runs. They didn't fold. Same with Indiana when it tightened up. Then against NW, they dug deep and found a way to pull the game out. This was not happening the last two years.

They have a little more toughness to them or confidence. Their defense is a smidge better but still not where they would like to be as a BIG team.

 

[JG10Hawk]

IMO, this team's ceiling is higher because it is better on offense and could get hot for a stretch of games, ie has more shooters and can space the floor better. That said the floor is also lower because this team's defense is much worse.

 

[revkev73]

Is this team really that much better than the 2013-16 teams? Or does having the clutch genes make that much of a difference? Without looking up all the KenPom metrics I would guess it ranks favorably right with those teams. But what a difference to be able to win close games. In this conference, are you kidding?

Let's take a quadrant of four conference games; the two Northwestern games, Penn State and Indiana. All were potential losses. All were won with late clutch plays. Looking at Fran's "body of work" history would tell us that he loses three of those four.

Now let's look at the difference winning those four makes in the conference standings. We are 8-5, sixth place. If we lose three of those four games and award Northwestern and Indiana one extra corresponding win we are 5-8, tied for ninth place. That's the difference between being solidly on the NCAA'S and being close to the dreaded bubble, and getting the dreaded eight-nine seed and spending two hours being Zion Williamson's personal highlight reel.

We saw signs in 2017. JBo's Kohl Center dagger, his three point barrage at Maryland, the OT win vs Indiana when the dazzling Tom Crean put Jok on the free throw line about 25 times. But we had a damaging late season home loss to Illinois and and early exit in the conference tournament and they probably cost us an NCAA bid.

The little things that make all the difference. I've been hard on Fran for his performance in these games. I have to give him considerable credit for what is transpiring this year. I don't see a late collapse. I see 12-8 as a real possibility.

Fran is a highly paid coach who has a substantial resume.

The last few years he has under-performed.

So far, this year he is performing more in line with his potential on several levels. A focus on defense, nice change of pace coaching adjustments, calling some timeouts at crucial times, nice plays drawn up after time outs, less psycho, better rotations, tightening his bench a bit.

Long way to go, win a couple of NCAA games, get on the national radar for recruiting. Trending up now.

CM and Wieskamp have both been nice additions, fundamentally sound, play smart, experienced competitors. Less choke history.

My two cents on the topic

 

[Northside Hawk]

Fran is a highly paid coach who has a substantial resume.

The last few years he has under-performed.

So far, this year he is performing more in line with his potential on several levels. A focus on defense, nice change of pace coaching adjustments, calling some timeouts at crucial times, nice plays drawn up after time outs, less psycho, better rotations, tightening his bench a bit.

Long way to go, win a couple of NCAA games, get on the national radar for recruiting. Trending up now.

CM and Wieskamp have both been nice additions, fundamentally sound, play smart, experienced competitors. Less choke history.

My two cents on the topic

Yes, it's going to take more than one year, or even a final four run, to completely reverse some of the damage he's done in the past, and I've posted as such. If GM suddenly manufactured cars and trucks with engines lacking a cylinder or transmissions that only went to third gear it would take more than one year to restore their reputation.

 

[PCHawk]

I've always said players win or lose close games, not coaches. Woody's class had an issue with close games all through their career. Fran had no issue with close games before them and has had no issue after them. That few years was brutal with close games. They didnt just lose most 50/50 games , they gave away a lot of 60/40 games and never ever took a 40/60 game.

 

[NikeHawk21]

I think this team is every bit as solid as some of those teams, better offensively but weaker defensively.

College basketball is just way down this year so a 5/6 seed this year to me is like a 7/8 seed in an average year.

Look at the B1G for an example, Michigan, MSU, and Purdue’s teams last year are easily better than their current outfits and they are top 3 in the conference.

Then you look at the Pac12 who is built like a mid major conference this year, the Big12 is down, as is the Big East, and to me the depth of the ACC is down with ND and Miami struggling.

Overall just a down year in college b-ball.

 

[revkev73]

I've always said players win or lose close games, not coaches. Woody's class had an issue with close games all through their career. Fran had no issue with close games before them and has had no issue after them. That few years was brutal with close games. They didnt just lose most 50/50 games , they gave away a lot of 60/40 games and never ever took a 40/60 game.

Give away is accurate, and a painful memory for anyone Iowa.

Drive wildly towards the hoop into triple coverage, throw it up where it hits the bottom of the back-board. Yah, that works.

 

[mopkins]

I'm still too scared to overreact on this team...we've seen too many heart breakers and late collapses over the Fran era. This team does seem to have "it" though.

Right now I could see Iowa as anywhere from a 4 seed to an 8 seed....and IMO its crucial for Fran to turn the corner and not fall to the dreaded 7 seed....again.

 

[WindsorHawk]

IMO, this team's ceiling is higher because it is better on offense and could get hot for a stretch of games, ie has more shooters and can space the floor better. That said the floor is also lower because this team's defense is much worse.

And we have a lot of really good FT shooters to close out games. That’s a huge plus in both the BTT & NCAA.

 

[PCHawk]

I'm still too scared to overreact on this team...we've seen too many heart breakers and late collapses over the Fran era. This team does seem to have "it" though.

Right now I could see Iowa as anywhere from a 4 seed to an 8 seed....and IMO its crucial for Fran to turn the corner and not fall to the dreaded 7 seed....again.

I just don't think we are good enough to not be scared. The last 2 times we collapsed, the team needed to play worse for it to happen. This year we could continue to play the same and still go 2-5 down the stretch if we catch teams on the wrong nights.

 

[ChosenChildren]

Is this team really that much better than the 2013-16 teams? Or does having the clutch genes make that much of a difference? Without looking up all the KenPom metrics I would guess it ranks favorably right with those teams. But what a difference to be able to win close games. In this conference, are you kidding?

Let's take a quadrant of four conference games; the two Northwestern games, Penn State and Indiana. All were potential losses. All were won with late clutch plays. Looking at Fran's "body of work" history would tell us that he loses three of those four.

Now let's look at the difference winning those four makes in the conference standings. We are 8-5, sixth place. If we lose three of those four games and award Northwestern and Indiana one extra corresponding win we are 5-8, tied for ninth place. That's the difference between being solidly on the NCAA'S and being close to the dreaded bubble, and getting the dreaded eight-nine seed and spending two hours being Zion Williamson's personal highlight reel.

We saw signs in 2017. JBo's Kohl Center dagger, his three point barrage at Maryland, the OT win vs Indiana when the dazzling Tom Crean put Jok on the free throw line about 25 times. But we had a damaging late season home loss to Illinois and and early exit in the conference tournament and they probably cost us an NCAA bid.

The little things that make all the difference. I've been hard on Fran for his performance in these games. I have to give him considerable credit for what is transpiring this year. I don't see a late collapse. I see 12-8 as a real possibility.

This is a wonderful post and you have nailed it on the head. The difference between winning and losing for Iowa in a tough Big Ten is razor thin. I really think it comes down to guard play; do we have guards that can execute in the clutch?

This year we have 5 "guards" (I consider Weiskamp, Moss and Baer to be large guards) who can really contribute. Moss, Bohannon, Weiskamp, McCaffery and Baer are all excellent players who can score and defend. I think that is why we are on the "plus" side in Big Ten play so far.

Cook, Garza and Kreiner are good big men and they do their jobs very well, but you must have good guards to win in this conference.

It is truly an elite league. Penn State has excellent talent and they are 1-11.

We'll see how Iowa does the rest of the year. 7 conference games to go; 4 on the road. I think 3-4 the rest of the way with their schedule would be terrific (11-9 overall would be good enough for 6th in the conference)

 

[ChosenChildren]

I also think we are a lock for the NCAA if we go 10-10 in the league....

 

[NikeHawk21]

This is a wonderful post and you have nailed it on the head. The difference between winning and losing for Iowa in a tough Big Ten is razor thin. I really think it comes down to guard play; do we have guards that can execute in the clutch?

This year we have 5 "guards" (I consider Weiskamp, Moss and Baer to be large guards) who can really contribute. Moss, Bohannon, Weiskamp, McCaffery and Baer are all excellent players who can score and defend. I think that is why we are on the "plus" side in Big Ten play so far.

Cook, Garza and Kreiner are good big men and they do their jobs very well, but you must have good guards to win in this conference.

It is truly an elite league. Penn State has excellent talent and they are 1-11.

We'll see how Iowa does the rest of the year. 7 conference games to go; 4 on the road. I think 3-4 the rest of the way with their schedule would be terrific (11-9 overall would be good enough for 6th in the conference)

If Iowa’s guards could defend the way you are saying they wouldn’t be a sub 100 level defensive team.

Iowa is a team with two really good post players (Cook & Garza), surrounded by 3 very good shooters (JBo, Wieskamp, Moss) which makes them a dangerous offensive team.

Defensively they are well below average for a P6 team.

All together they are playing like a top 30 level team and tournament lock which is very positive.

 

[uihawk82]

Those 3 extra losses the OP talks about would also make the hawks 16-8 overall and really on the outside looking in at this point in the season. Amazing what a few wins does to your record.

Fran has just had a lot of teams with players that couldnt create their own shot especially when needed. He didnt have guys who could drive from the wing and consistently hit an elbow jumper at a high %

 

[BlackAndGold3]

Connor is the difference Frans taking a little bit more heat at the dinner table at night if they lose....joking but Connor is a winner and you can see that in the way he plays and shows emotion his the big difference from this year and last year in my opinion

 

[HuckFinn]

I think this team is every bit as solid as some of those teams, better offensively but weaker defensively.

College basketball is just way down this year so a 5/6 seed this year to me is like a 7/8 seed in an average year.

Look at the B1G for an example, Michigan, MSU, and Purdue’s teams last year are easily better than their current outfits and they are top 3 in the conference.

Then you look at the Pac12 who is built like a mid major conference this year, the Big12 is down, as is the Big East, and to me the depth of the ACC is down with ND and Miami struggling.

Overall just a down year in college b-ball.

You may well be right, but it is my observation that "down years" are sometimes actually years when there are more very good teams.

 

[Northside Hawk]

Our ability to finish close games, and Minnesota's inability, is what separates the two teams in the standings. We are 8-5, Minnesota is now 6-8 with a one point loss at Nebraska and a two point loss at Michigan, among others.