I didn't do this very systematically, but I glanced back through the instate recruits for the last decade or so, and it sure seems like Iowa almost always gets the best (maybe not according to recruit ranking, but according to outcome). Iowa commits bolded.
2019: #1 Duggan (he might end up being pretty good, missed last year with a heart issue), #2 E. Miller, #3 T. Endres, #4 J. Campbell, #12 DeJong (I included him because he is probably a big part of the reason Miller and Fenske, higher rated recruits, left); the next 2 highest rated that we didn't get (Mosai Newsom to Nebby, Darien Porter to ISU) have not played and seen special teams reps, respectively
2018: #1 Waggoner, #2 Linderbaum, #4 Doyle, #13 R. Moss; the 3 that are still here will all likely play in the NFL; didn't see any notables on the list of players that are ripping it up elsewhere
2017: #1 O. Martin, #2 Kallenberger, #3 Wirfs (Kallenberger was honorable mention all-B1G last year while Wirfs was winning a superbowl); Martin had 5 rec for 63 yards for a bad offense
2016: #1 Raridon (OL to Nebby), #2 J. Heinrich (OL to Ark), #3 S. Williams (OL), #4 S. Beyer (TE); the top 3 recruits all had their careers cut short by injuries, none played meaningful snaps; meanwhile, Beyer will be in the NFL, joining #7 Hockenson; #9 A. Schulte and #10 Banwart have outside shots at the NFL as well
2015: Iowa secured 4 of the top 5 recruits (the Paulsens were #1 and #2), and 7 of the top 9; the best player in the bunch is #7 A. Nelson
2014: #1 Pierschbacher, #2 Lazard; this is a year when a couple of really good players got away; both were great in college, and Pierschbacher has played 8 NFL games, and Lazard has a great start to his NFL career after initially being undrafted; worth noting that although missed on the top 2, they secured 6 of the top 9, including #4 M. Nelson (more NFL games and starts than Pierchbacher), and #6 K. Render, #7 Hesse, and #9 R. Reynolds (all NFL cup-of-coffee guys)
2013: #1 J. Campos (ISU OL), #2 Wisnieski (TE), #3 Trevon Young (LB committed to Iowa, offer was rescinded after several arrests, ended up at IWCC then Louisville, actually played a bit in NFL), #4 Ike Boettger, #10 Josey Jewell; 2 of these guys are NFL players, they both went to Iowa
2012: #1 A. Darboh (WR to Mich), #2 C. Rogers (Ath to ISU), #4 M. Malloy, #5 B. Hill; Darboh would have been nice; good career at Mich (2nd team all-B1G), and he played 1 year in the NFL; Rogers just played 1 year at ISU, not sure where he ended up; behind Darboh, 2nd best player in the class may have been #10 Nate Meier; also of note, #3 J. Harrington (didn't play football, ran T&F first at Alabama, transferred to Iowa where he was a B1G champ and 2nd team AA)
2011: #1 C. French (solid career at Oregon, cup of coffee in NFL), #2 Blythe (has played 71 career NFL games, started 49 of them), #3 Krieger-Coble (played in 3 NFL games)
2010: #1 AJ Derby (25 NFL games, 4 starts at TE), Matt Hock (solid DL career at Mizzou), #3 Scherff (NFL All-Pro)
Summary:
From the last 10 years (starting with the 2019 class and going backward), Iowa lost out on the top players in 2014 (though notable that M. Nelson has played and started more NFL games than Pierschbacher) and the top player in 2012. It looks like every other year they ended up with the best players, whether they were rated that way or not.
In 2021 Iowa lost out on the top 2 recruits (Fidone and Bollers), but history shows us that we need to wait about 4 years to figure out if they missed on the top players or not.
2019: #1 Duggan (he might end up being pretty good, missed last year with a heart issue), #2 E. Miller, #3 T. Endres, #4 J. Campbell, #12 DeJong (I included him because he is probably a big part of the reason Miller and Fenske, higher rated recruits, left); the next 2 highest rated that we didn't get (Mosai Newsom to Nebby, Darien Porter to ISU) have not played and seen special teams reps, respectively
2018: #1 Waggoner, #2 Linderbaum, #4 Doyle, #13 R. Moss; the 3 that are still here will all likely play in the NFL; didn't see any notables on the list of players that are ripping it up elsewhere
2017: #1 O. Martin, #2 Kallenberger, #3 Wirfs (Kallenberger was honorable mention all-B1G last year while Wirfs was winning a superbowl); Martin had 5 rec for 63 yards for a bad offense
2016: #1 Raridon (OL to Nebby), #2 J. Heinrich (OL to Ark), #3 S. Williams (OL), #4 S. Beyer (TE); the top 3 recruits all had their careers cut short by injuries, none played meaningful snaps; meanwhile, Beyer will be in the NFL, joining #7 Hockenson; #9 A. Schulte and #10 Banwart have outside shots at the NFL as well
2015: Iowa secured 4 of the top 5 recruits (the Paulsens were #1 and #2), and 7 of the top 9; the best player in the bunch is #7 A. Nelson
2014: #1 Pierschbacher, #2 Lazard; this is a year when a couple of really good players got away; both were great in college, and Pierschbacher has played 8 NFL games, and Lazard has a great start to his NFL career after initially being undrafted; worth noting that although missed on the top 2, they secured 6 of the top 9, including #4 M. Nelson (more NFL games and starts than Pierchbacher), and #6 K. Render, #7 Hesse, and #9 R. Reynolds (all NFL cup-of-coffee guys)
2013: #1 J. Campos (ISU OL), #2 Wisnieski (TE), #3 Trevon Young (LB committed to Iowa, offer was rescinded after several arrests, ended up at IWCC then Louisville, actually played a bit in NFL), #4 Ike Boettger, #10 Josey Jewell; 2 of these guys are NFL players, they both went to Iowa
2012: #1 A. Darboh (WR to Mich), #2 C. Rogers (Ath to ISU), #4 M. Malloy, #5 B. Hill; Darboh would have been nice; good career at Mich (2nd team all-B1G), and he played 1 year in the NFL; Rogers just played 1 year at ISU, not sure where he ended up; behind Darboh, 2nd best player in the class may have been #10 Nate Meier; also of note, #3 J. Harrington (didn't play football, ran T&F first at Alabama, transferred to Iowa where he was a B1G champ and 2nd team AA)
2011: #1 C. French (solid career at Oregon, cup of coffee in NFL), #2 Blythe (has played 71 career NFL games, started 49 of them), #3 Krieger-Coble (played in 3 NFL games)
2010: #1 AJ Derby (25 NFL games, 4 starts at TE), Matt Hock (solid DL career at Mizzou), #3 Scherff (NFL All-Pro)
Summary:
From the last 10 years (starting with the 2019 class and going backward), Iowa lost out on the top players in 2014 (though notable that M. Nelson has played and started more NFL games than Pierschbacher) and the top player in 2012. It looks like every other year they ended up with the best players, whether they were rated that way or not.
In 2021 Iowa lost out on the top 2 recruits (Fidone and Bollers), but history shows us that we need to wait about 4 years to figure out if they missed on the top players or not.
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