Wow. Fran must be feeling some heat for missing out on DJ

tksirius said:
I love how everybody wants Fran to get a pg that is pretty much the same height/weight/athleticism that Locure is. Funny how things change.
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I was with you and still am. I hoping he re-enters the picture at some point here. I'm not an expert here, but I don't see anything from these guys that would indicate a difference between them and Locure. I also imagine that being an in-state kid, he'd take a more personal stake in the team. I'd like to see a critical analysis of his game from a reputable "recruiting expert" that puts a major knock on him compared to 3 star guys other than his size.
 
So, after a complete and final summer AAU evaluation period, every Mid Major and High Major give TL a pass - save one. 1.
Totally inexplicable.
 
BryceC said:
True, but again, the odds are against it.

I think of recruiting rankings like this, every player can be good, and every player can be a bust. The odds of a highly ranked player being a bust are just lower than a low ranked player. Same as the odds of a low ranked player being good might be low, it still happens.

I'll go back to 2015, because 2016 and 2017 still have some years to change what has happened.

2015 had 4 high school prospects, all of them 200+. Basically all are gone now but Moss, who is an okay player. Not a lot of great ways to rank players, but PER is one that attempts to bring together their total effect on the game - he was 71st in the Big 10 in that stat last year.

2014 had 2 200+ high school prospects - 0fer.

2013 had 1 200+ high school prospect - Jok, who really was underated by that point but still that's a definite plus.

2012 had 3 200+ high school prospect, only Clemmons did anything, and he never averaged more than 5 PPG until his senior year.

2011 had 1 200+ prospect, Olaseni, who was okay.

2010 had 2 200+ prospects, Marble and McCabe. Marble obviously a huge plus, McCabe was okay.

2009 had 3 200+ prospects, only Eric May did anything.


Basically if you look at it this way, there have been 16 200+ ranked high school prospects recruited in the Fan era from 2009 to 2015, that have resulted in two great players, Jok and Marble, and 4 okay players (at best, no offense), and 10 total flame outs. If I had to guess, you have at least 1 more great player in JBo, and I think it's unfair to judge anybody from 2016 and beyond until their careers are over. Plus I think Jok was underrated due to injury. I would asterisk him but that's just my opinion.

Regardless, the hit rate for 200+ prospects is extremely low.
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You could be right, but the first three or four years of recruiting with Fran the pickings were a lot harder due to the success under lickliter. I tend to think Fran looks at a player through what they could become under his coaching ability rather what kind of abilities they really have. I think Fran is a good coach, but I doubt a great coach would of had the year he had after all the time he had to build the team. They did have some timely injuries last year though. Anyway, a coach can't be successful without the talented players, and even a talented player won't be successful without good coaching. The point guards they have offered obviously have a lot of potential. Given the same players, I think the starting line-ups for Iowa during the Fran tenure would of been different if Tom Davis or Lute Olson would of been the coach. I tend to think that Fran sees things through his heart more than his brain.
 
SidFarkas said:
Also, Nevada, Loyola, UMBC, Rhode Island, St Bonaventure etc - all say thank you thank you to the 200+ scrubs out there. Such a myopic view from the cornfields. SMH.
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Then show me the list. There have likely been quite a few 200+ ranked recruits that have gone to the Big 10 or other major conferences the last 10 years. I'm betting the hit rate is very low.
 
BryceC said:
Then show me the list. There have likely been quite a few 200+ ranked recruits that have gone to the Big 10 or other major conferences the last 10 years. I'm betting the hit rate is very low.
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If there are about 85 P-6 schools out there and they have 3 scholarship openings per year then most wouldn't need to take many 200+ guys. Those guys would tend to be at mid-majors. What's the hit rate for these guys at mid-majors?
 
SteveGarvey1 said:
If there are about 85 P-6 schools out there and they have 3 scholarship openings per year then most wouldn't need to take many 200+ guys. Those guys would tend to be at mid-majors. What's the hit rate for these guys at mid-majors?
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Fran is one of the few P6 head coaches that's out offering several #240-260 rated prospects. No need to wonder how we are where we are, as a program.
 
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