Will College Football Be Gone in 20 years?

[eyekwah]

Twenty years? It could be even less.

For those that follow college enrollment numbers the University of Northern Iowa is dealing with declining enrollment. At our beloved U of Iowa the out of state students make up a significant portion of the student population and without them enrollment would be a lot less. Our in-state nemesis is holding its own, but faces the same problems of all colleges. There are not enough in-state students for the three public universities. Recently Northwest Missouri State at Maryville MO offered Iowa students from adjacent Iowa and Nebraska counties in-state tutition rates. There are going to be consequences.

The state of Iowa has put off higher ed organizational reform to eliminate administrative costs for over 40 years. In any streamlining effort to cut the costs of operations one can see the potential for one president of all three universities and single offices for admissions and transcripts. Obviously the sharing of staff is a natural process and has already started. It would not make sense for all three Universities to build on-line courses that duplicate each other. We just may see the University of Iowa, Iowa City, the U of I, Ames and the U of I, Cedar Falls. I'm sure this isn't what some want, but witness the events in Detroit, MI today.

The collision of demographics, fewer people able to afford on campus study, and over dependence on TV revenue are here.

 

[tubahawk]

You can't choose to attend all 6 online either... you have to go to an online college.
'
Are four year universities going to start offering online only degrees? Not in a way that undercuts their campuses.

There are always going to be people who want that college life experience. Athletics being a major reason for wanting that campus life. But for many if they have the choice of getting a business degree from a $20,000/yr campus university or $5,000/yr on-line university they are going with the on-line option.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Guys, look, there is an education bubble. It's huge. People pay absurd prices for a piece of paper that in probably 8 out of 10 cases merely shows a prospective employer that they can stick with something for 4 years to earn the piece of paper. Not to get political, but Uncle Sugar is dumping an absolutely tremendous amount of money into non-dischargeable loans and the private market is kicking in absurd coin to make up the difference. Now 15 years ago, I couldn't even get a dang loan for $6,000 from Norwest with my mom as a co-signer and so I called Drake and was liek "sorry dudes, not going there unless you can come down on price and find me a different originator." And they did, so I wound up paying $4k and they bent over backwards to find me a loan from Iowa Student Loan Liquidity Corp. I wound up with a Drake degree with a total of about $10k of loans because I worked (and probably made more than kids are making today) and gas was $1 a gallon and food cost half of what it does today. Yet today, kids have Uncle Sug pumping a ton of money into the system and so the schools have taken a hard line approach in terms of charging what this brave new market will bear, which is a small fortune. There is simply no market discipline anymore.

However, I think the tide is slowly turning. Folks are realizing that many degrees are a scam and that the higher ed system is designed to enrich the profs and admin. I suspect that in a few decades there will be substantially fewer colleges than there are today, but I think the ones that will get cut out are the really small colleges in places like rural Iowa. Think places like Buena Vista. The University of Iowa isn't going anywhere. Iowa State isn't going anywhere. You simply can't run a freaking medical school or teach undergrad o-chem or biology classes with lab over the internet. You have to have a physical plant.

And of course, there are already a ton of online learning opportunities. Some are cheap. Some are absurdly expensive, it depends on what you're getting. For instance, you can get a Duke MBA substantially online, but it will still cost you close to 6 figures.

 

[BSpringsteen]

Guys, look, there is an education bubble. It's huge. People pay absurd prices for a piece of paper that in probably 8 out of 10 cases merely shows a prospective employer that they can stick with something for 4 years to earn the piece of paper. Not to get political, but Uncle Sugar is dumping an absolutely tremendous amount of money into non-dischargeable loans and the private market is kicking in absurd coin to make up the difference. Now 15 years ago, I couldn't even get a dang loan for $6,000 from Norwest with my mom as a co-signer and so I called Drake and was liek "sorry dudes, not going there unless you can come down on price and find me a different originator." And they did, so I wound up paying $4k and they bent over backwards to find me a loan from Iowa Student Loan Liquidity Corp. I wound up with a Drake degree with a total of about $10k of loans because I worked (and probably made more than kids are making today) and gas was $1 a gallon and food cost half of what it does today. Yet today, kids have Uncle Sug pumping a ton of money into the system and so the schools have taken a hard line approach in terms of charging what this brave new market will bear, which is a small fortune. There is simply no market discipline anymore.

However, I think the tide is slowly turning. Folks are realizing that many degrees are a scam and that the higher ed system is designed to enrich the profs and admin. I suspect that in a few decades there will be substantially fewer colleges than there are today, but I think the ones that will get cut out are the really small colleges in places like rural Iowa. Think places like Buena Vista. The University of Iowa isn't going anywhere. Iowa State isn't going anywhere. You simply can't run a freaking medical school or teach undergrad o-chem or biology classes with lab over the internet. You have to have a physical plant.

And of course, there are already a ton of online learning opportunities. Some are cheap. Some are absurdly expensive, it depends on what you're getting. For instance, you can get a Duke MBA substantially online, but it will still cost you close to 6 figures.

Stop stealing my posts.

 

[Hawknigh]

It is a myth that tuition rates are linked to cost of education. Tuition rates are linked to the market of how much can be generated by student payments, loans, and other funding sources. Further, tuition is tied to the perceived value of the academic credential as a form of cultural currency.

Even though I see the forms of education becoming more varied to include things like online and hybrid courses, colleges will still exist as long as they retain their credentialing roles. The real question is whether some industries will move toward credentialing that doesn't view college as a necessary institution for training. As this happens, then academic programs and institutions may become weaker. As long as colleges maintain a functional cartel for entry into most high-end professions, they will stay strong.

 

[trj]

I am guessing that a social science, liberal arts degree is worth about dodo right about now unless you can study abroad or learn a second language. That Sociology degree definitely isn't worth the debt.

 

[kirby]

There is also a lack of intellectual resource for colleges/universities to harvest in this country. Many major colleges are now requiring all students to take remedial writing (college writing course 101) as part of their program, kind of like community colleges require for those students who need "basic" or "remedial" basics. Do online courses market to this below average (world) student?

Another very interesting development is the outsourcing of quality higher (American) education, something that is internationally desired (interesting how other countries value a degree from American colleges and universities more than the U.S). While U.S. parents want less homework and make more excuses for their children, colleges and universities are going where the talent is: China.

China Needs American Education. Here's How to Bring It There - Forbes

 

[trj]

Any of you ever watch Bill Maher on HBO? He had Mike Rowe from Dirty Jobs on his show the other night and he made some incredibly interesting points. He said he was just at a Caterpillar plant in Arizona and the administrators told him something he's been hearing all over the country... that they have had consistently about 28 positions as Heavy Equipment Mechanics that they have been unable to fill for more than a couple years. They told him these jobs start out in the $50,000 range but within 5 years you can work yourself up to making $120,000.

Mike used this as an example, and then went on to say that right now in the U.S. there are roughly 3 million solid jobs that companies are unable to fill all because these kind of positions aren't glamorized by parents, guidance councelors, teachers, and in some cases politicians. He was basically saying these jobs aren't "sexy" enough for young men and women entering the job market. They would rather go to a four year school and get a pretty worthless major in Art, Communications, or Sports and Recreation. These degrees are fine and dandy, but they don't accomplish a whole lot for probably 9 out of 10 graduates.

Basically Rowe was saying that kids could choose to go to a vocational school for a much cheaper cost and shorter education time. Currently the U.S. is like 3 trillion dollars in debt based on student loans alone. It just makes so much more sense to go to a school where you learn a trade and then perform the trade. I'm speaking from experience. I was in the military and then went to the U of I for one year, prior to transfering to a vocational school for Radiologic Technology. The military paid for 100% of my education. The University of Iowa offers the same program but its price is insane. I've since worked with many technologists who graduated from the U with the same degree I have. The only difference is they have anywhere from $40,000 - $80,000 worth of college debt to pay back. I have a whopping $0. Makes little sense. When I discuss it with them many of them can't believe it, but that's only because they did what they were programmed to do instead of think outside the box.

I grew up in the Quad Cities and I had relatives that worked for caterpillar, alcoa , john deere, so the opportunities were there for me. I chose the Joe college route and as you correctly stated those jobs weren't "sexy" enough for a dumb 18 year old me. If I had of went down that route I would have a house that would be paid off right about now and would be set to retire in 10 years.

 

[tm3308]

And there isn't competition in universities? If you are a student in Illinois there are no less than 6 four year state campuses.

Child please, the second online courses become acceptable across wide swaths of the country, prices will SOAR

Even if/when those prices soar, online will be far more affordable than attending universities. You're not paying for university housing/dining, you're not paying fees to build **** on campus, etc. I'm not sure on this, but would there even be an "in-state/out of state" difference with online degrees? Out of state students get gouged pretty damn hard at universities.

 

[BSpringsteen]

Even if/when those prices soar, online will be far more affordable than attending universities. You're not paying for university housing/dining, you're not paying fees to build **** on campus, etc. I'm not sure on this, but would there even be an "in-state/out of state" difference with online degrees? Out of state students get gouged pretty damn hard at universities.

So where are you going to live? What are you going to eat.

Oh I get it, the idea here is for people to continue to live at home with their parents, not having to buy groceries or toilet paper, not learning how to budget actual living expenses or any other living on your own skills?

Look - you want tuition to drop like a brick, get rid of student loans.

Public school should be FREE for in state students. The fact that it is not is an embarassment to this country.

 

[okeefe4prez]

It is a myth that tuition rates are linked to cost of education. Tuition rates are linked to the market of how much can be generated by student payments, loans, and other funding sources. Further, tuition is tied to the perceived value of the academic credential as a form of cultural currency.

Even though I see the forms of education becoming more varied to include things like online and hybrid courses, colleges will still exist as long as they retain their credentialing roles. The real question is whether some industries will move toward credentialing that doesn't view college as a necessary institution for training. As this happens, then academic programs and institutions may become weaker. As long as colleges maintain a functional cartel for entry into most high-end professions, they will stay strong.

Tuition is vastly overstated at many schools, as well. Many schools have adopted the high price, deep discounting model of pricing. That way someone can think they got a good deal when they go to Coe and the tuition is listed at $35k or whatever and it is discounted to $20k. The schools also have ideas about how they want to promote diversity and they have used this opaque pricing model to attain societal ends of the faculty and administration. By making the pricing completely opaque rather than setting the price near the true average price, the school can have ten students subsidize a full ride for another student. Plus, a lot of schools give almost no discounting for foreign students.

Of course, really top schools offer very little discounting. Northwestern is able to maintain its several billion dollar endowment by sitting on it and investing it in private equity and the stock market rather than using it to further subsidizing educations, thus they have tons of kids paying 100% sticker for absurdly priced tuition. My colleagues who went to Harvard just laugh when they get the quarterly fundraising drive publications. Their basic take is "You charged me over $100k for a law degree and you have a tax free endowment north of $25 billion and you want money from me? [Maniacal laughter]."

 

[deanvogs]

So where are you going to live? What are you going to eat.

Oh I get it, the idea here is for people to continue to live at home with their parents, not having to buy groceries or toilet paper, not learning how to budget actual living expenses or any other living on your own skills?

Look - you want tuition to drop like a brick, get rid of student loans.

Public school should be FREE for in state students. The fact that it is not is an embarassment to this country.

If you think I'm gonna pay for some 20 year old hippie to go to Ames, get high, to root for the clowns, and get a LA degree, you got another thing coming....

 

[DP5555]

A

I grew up in the Quad Cities and I had relatives that worked for caterpillar, alcoa , john deere, so the opportunities were there for me. I chose the Joe college route and as you correctly stated those jobs weren't "sexy" enough for a dumb 18 year old me. If I had of went down that route I would have a house that would be paid off right about now and would be set to retire in 10 years.

Part of me wishes I had the credentialing to work for Caterpillar if they are that desparate for employees. The ceiling is much higher for a company like that compared to working in healthcare. I'm lucky if I get a .50 to a $1.00 raise per year. At Caterpillar or John Deere the raises are bigger, more frequent, and the benefits are much better. Only risk is big layoffs during a recession. That's why I've been considering taking my expertise and experience and translating it to work for a vendor like GE, Toshiba, Phillips, or Seimens. There's quite a bit of travel, but much better pay.

The only real benefit of my profession is the fact there's always a large quantity of attractive women. Unfortunately even that can get a guy like me into some trouble . Turns out women can be a little jealous... who woulda thought lol!?

 

[FreedComanche]

If you think I'm gonna pay for some 20 year old hippie to go to Ames, get high, to root for the clowns, and get a LA degree, you got another thing coming....

What, Dean? You mean you aren't a socialist?

FreedComanche

 

[deanvogs]

What, Dean? You mean you aren't a socialist?

FreedComanche

I'm a socialist until they turn 18.....after that nobody else should have to pay for someones education.....I know what I did in college, and nobody else should have to pay for that!

 

[hawkdrummer1]

Interesting article and discussion.

If higher education were subject to general market forces, like most businesses... a lot of the imbalance would take care of itself. Online options are doing that, to a certain degree. The cost of "higher education" has risen much, much faster than inflation over the past 20 years, so it's due for a "market correction".

You'll see women's studies and many other "masturbation majors" go away pretty quickly, and you'd see quite a few faculty suddenly working at Starbucks. Cliche as it may sound...many of them would be lost outside of the cocoon of a college campus. (no pink locker rooms to protest) It's much like Dan Aykroyd's line in Ghost Busters, upon losing their grant. "You don't know what it's like in the private sector, they expect results".

But as much as computers can deliver, there's still no substitute for human contact and interaction. That, as much as the specific curricula, is what the college experience is about. My fear, is with more and more kids locked into their smart phones, twitter, texting etc as "reality"... that human contact is being devalued. If so... we're headed to a society dependent on it's technology.... and woefully lacking in basic human skills. That can already be observed.

 

[OLWPAORWWM]

I grew up in the Quad Cities and I had relatives that worked for caterpillar, alcoa , john deere, so the opportunities were there for me. I chose the Joe college route and as you correctly stated those jobs weren't "sexy" enough for a dumb 18 year old me. If I had of went down that route I would have a house that would be paid off right about now and would be set to retire in 10 years.

I am from that area, and my old man worked in factories for 40 years, and he sure as hell didn't want me and my brother to do that. My brother did anyways, took an early retirement offered to welders, and enjoyed his time off fighting the cancer the welding gave him.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I am from that area, and my old man worked in factories for 40 years, and he sure as hell didn't want me and my brother to do that. My brother did anyways, took an early retirement offered to welders, and enjoyed his time off fighting the cancer the welding gave him.

Yeah, that's the down side of those welding jobs. Sorry to hear about your brother.

 

[Hawknigh]

Interesting article and discussion.

If higher education were subject to general market forces, like most businesses... a lot of the imbalance would take care of itself. Online options are doing that, to a certain degree. The cost of "higher education" has risen much, much faster than inflation over the past 20 years, so it's due for a "market correction".

You'll see women's studies and many other "masturbation majors" go away pretty quickly, and you'd see quite a few faculty suddenly working at Starbucks. Cliche as it may sound...many of them would be lost outside of the cocoon of a college campus. (no pink locker rooms to protest) It's much like Dan Aykroyd's line in Ghost Busters, upon losing their grant. "You don't know what it's like in the private sector, they expect results".

But as much as computers can deliver, there's still no substitute for human contact and interaction. That, as much as the specific curricula, is what the college experience is about. My fear, is with more and more kids locked into their smart phones, twitter, texting etc as "reality"... that human contact is being devalued. If so... we're headed to a society dependent on it's technology.... and woefully lacking in basic human skills. That can already be observed.

Human contact with whom? Graduate assistants on campus? Or qualified instructors online? The online instructors often have both academic and professional backgrounds.

What is the definition of "distance education?" The space between a tenured faculty member and an undergraduate student at a state university!

 

[OLWPAORWWM]

Yeah, that's the down side of those welding jobs. Sorry to hear about your brother.

My old man wasn't an educated man, but he was a smart man. He got laid off enough times to know that making a living working in a factory was not the secure way to make a future. He wanted all of us to get the hell out of small town Iowa and make a life somewhere better. I didn't go straight to college, but joined the military instead. I went to college eventually, and studied history (something worthless, according to some here), but took something out of it. I tried to take something out of my education, such as learning how to actually understand and appreciate literature, how to write and speak as an effective communicator, and how to craft and defend a rational point of view, particularly in a problem solving scenario. All of this stuff certainly prepared me for my career after college.

After spending time in Europe in the service, I like how they do things there. For instance, public service is compulsory for many students who seek to go to college, and the state invests in them for investing in the state. Exceptional pupils are given free tuition because they don't want them running off to England or America and staying there, when they could be enriching their own homeland.

While I believe a college education should be available to every child who wants it, I don't think every child should be encouraged to go to college. People who use it to extend their adolescence, in my opinion, are ruining education for the rest of them. They not only drive up costs, but they take attention away from students who actually try and utilize the academic structure.