why this loss may actually be beneficial

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echo44

Well-Known Member
if iowa had won this brutal battle they would be playing another physical game for the 3rd day in a row.
‘we have two injured players that need the recovery time. playing 3 days in a row against physical teams is brutal.
on a mental level hopefully this loss will light a fire under the hawks and motivate them to really focus as this is it .
iowa made a lot of mistakes in this game and still was within 5 points at the end of the game to one of the best teams in the country. just a few breaks and it could have gone the other way.
 
Don't think IL is that far superior. Refs swallowed em in a phys game, and Hawks turnovers killed. Right there if Bo don't get picked.
 
Plus we have seen where teams win their conference tournament to only flame out before the first weekend is over. So, I would agree, from a rest perspective, Iowa gets to put less miles on heading into next week.
 
80% of the teams that make the final 4 get to their conference championship game.


Feel free to call me out. Was listening to the radio on my way to pick up some food when I heard that stat. Not sure I got it right because I wasn't totally paying attention. Point being is the " 3 day grind thing" might be overstated.
 
HaydenHawk56 said:
Plus we have seen where teams win their conference tournament to only flame out before the first weekend is over. So, I would agree, from a rest perspective, Iowa gets to put less miles on heading into next week.
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I'll look later... i started to research the last final four... texas tech lost in 1st round of big 12 when they made final 4.
 
I think the "three day grind thing" depends on your team. If everyone is healthy and you have a deep bench its not an issue. With Iowa they have a smaller rotation and two guys are banged up. Fran said after the Game that CJ was hurting toward the end of the game. I thought Iowa did not play their best game yet still stayed with one of the top athletic teams in the country.
 
trj said:
80% of the teams that make the final 4 get to their conference championship game.


Feel free to call me out. Was listening to the radio on my way to pick up some food when I heard that stat. Not sure I got it right because I wasn't totally paying attention. Point being is the " 3 day grind thing" might be overstated.
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I doubt any of those 80% have 4 of the top 8 NCAA seeds in their conference tournament.
 
The hawks just really handled OSU a couple weeks before at their place. We dont match up well with Mich and Illinois but what I see is OSU only has one really decent penetrating guard. The title was set up for the hawks to take.

The hawks didnt play that well or shoot that well had more turnovers than usual but still they were only down by 5 with with a few minutes to go.

I think if they keep playing with grit and their type of ball they do well in the NCAAs
 
I think we all have gotten greedy as well. If I had told you a few years ago that Iowa will be a 2 seed in the NCAA tournament you would have never believed it!!! We need to be grateful for an amazing season. Also Very proud of the fight in this team they never gave up today, this is a lot different than previous games when they fell behind and would just collapse.
 
echo44 said:
I think the "three day grind thing" depends on your team. If everyone is healthy and you have a deep bench its not an issue. With Iowa they have a smaller rotation and two guys are banged up. Fran said after the Game that CJ was hurting toward the end of the game. I thought Iowa did not play their best game yet still stayed with one of the top athletic teams in the country.
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CJ really was guarded hard in this game, he went down multiple times, still couldn’t draw a foul. I was most worried about him.
 
HawksMN said:
Don't think IL is that far superior. Refs swallowed em in a phys game, and Hawks turnovers killed. Right there if Bo don't get picked.
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Totally agreed.

We had a bad stretch in the back half of the first half where Illinois opened up a ~10 pt lead...and then we went on to match them - almost point for point - for the remainder of the game until we were 1 good possession away from making it a 1 possession game.

Give Illinois credit - they held us at bay and their defense did a great job continually forcing us into "plan C" and beyond. They are a legit one seed...that we matched blow for blow for what was almost an impossibly long stretch of ball. We can get well into the tourney before we meet anyone as good as Illinois.
 
trj said:
80% of the teams that make the final 4 get to their conference championship game.


Feel free to call me out. Was listening to the radio on my way to pick up some food when I heard that stat. Not sure I got it right because I wasn't totally paying attention. Point being is the " 3 day grind thing" might be overstated.
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No way in hell was this team ever going to sniff the final four and no one even expects it. S16 is the ceiling for this squad, by then you’re likely playing a 3 seed
 
Fryowa said:
No way in hell was this team ever going to sniff the final four and no one even expects it. S16 is the ceiling for this squad, by then you’re likely playing a 3 seed
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We've lost 3 games all year to teams thats aren't a 1 or 2 seed. One was a miracle comeback to a team that was playing great at home at the time. Not sure how you say no way when we've shown all year we almost always beat good teams and lose to the elite ones. But then again you said no way we beat Wisconsin. It's kinda your thing. Maybe a reverse psychology type of thing?
 
Losing Nunge is still hurting this team. We will have no answers for teams with a couple of really good bigs. That's where this team is vulnerable.

Prior to losing Nunge...this team definitely had a shot to make a Final Four run. Now...it's going to be really difficult because Garza is going to have to play 38 minutes a game. The good news...he won't have to turn around and play two physical wars within 24 hours. He gets a rest day.

For people who say this team couldn't sniff the Final Four, may I remind you that Loyola Chicago made a Final Four a few years ago. If you think they had more talent than Iowa...you need to change the MJ you are smoking. It's all about matchups in your region, upsets, and getting a few guys hot from the three land. If Weiskamp goes off...CJ is hitting...and Bohannon can make shots...hell yes we can get to the Final Four.

A team like Illinois is our worst matchup...two bigs that can wear down Garza...Cockburn played 20 minutes yesterday... and he and Georgy ran the floor and gassed an already tired Garza. Then Ayo and Curbelo are playing their best ball of their lives...and we were down 5 with 2:30 to play or something like that. The other thing to consider...the way that game was officiated was much more favorable to Illinois.

I'm not saying we got screwed...I'm saying the physicality was consistent but ridiculous. Underwood knows all too well the way to beat Iowa is to be physical off the ball with CJ, Weiskamp, and Bohannon. Illinois got away with way too much holding and fouls fighting through screens. It's a foul to grab the ball handler as he's moving by a screener...Illinois did it consistently.

The fact is...this team can make a Final Four run, but you have to get a couple people playing at the top of their game other than just Garza. In my opinion, Weiskamp, CJ, and Bohannon need to shoot 45-50% from three. That happens...you are there with anyone.

We proved we can beat a team like Wisconsin going 2-20 from three. As a 2 seed...I doubt we play a team better than Wisconsin to get to the Sweet Sixteen. As you get to the round of 16, then it gets interesting and you need a Weiskamp or Bohannon to go off. I remember Glenn Rice getting hot for Michigan and carrying that team to a Championship. It can happen.
 
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I wouldn't call Sweet 16 our "ceiling" at all. I think if you took a bunch of plausible bracket seedings and ran 1000s of simulated outcomes (that are sophisticated enough to factor in injuries, play style, individual matchups, etc), you'd find a good percentage of them end with Iowa losing in the Sweet 16...but you'd also get a good percentage of Iowa advancing past the Sweet 16. I would imagine you'd get a bell looking distribution with the peak falling somewhere between the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.

Crazy shit happens every year. Match ups matter a *lot*. If seeding/upsets were to play out in a favorable way, Iowa is completely plausible as a Final Four team. Likewise, they could very plausibly be knocked out in the round of 32 by a mid-major who happens to have a lot of guards who can dribble drive.

I grant that, in the grand scheme of the college basketball universe, Iowa falls into the "good, not great" category but, in a massive sample set like Division 1 college basketball, "good" tends to cover a pretty big qualitative range (and Iowa is likely on the high side of that range). If you think a "good, not great" team can't do a Elite 8 or even Final Four run, you're nuts!
 
Given the conference we played in, the end result having been a #5 ranking in the country and likely a 2 seed in the NCAA, the idea that Iowa is not good enough to slip into the final four makes no sense. And we are playing our best basketball now, even with the loss to #1 seed IL and some tough injuries. Good grief.
 
Luftgekuehlt67 said:
I wouldn't call Sweet 16 our "ceiling" at all. I think if you took a bunch of plausible bracket seedings and ran 1000s of simulated outcomes (that are sophisticated enough to factor in injuries, play style, individual matchups, etc), you'd find a good percentage of them end with Iowa losing in the Sweet 16...but you'd also get a good percentage of Iowa advancing past the Sweet 16. I would imagine you'd get a bell looking distribution with the peak falling somewhere between the Sweet 16 and Elite 8.

Crazy shit happens every year. Match ups matter a *lot*. If seeding/upsets were to play out in a favorable way, Iowa is completely plausible as a Final Four team. Likewise, they could very plausibly be knocked out in the round of 32 by a mid-major who happens to have a lot of guards who can dribble drive.

I grant that, in the grand scheme of the college basketball universe, Iowa falls into the "good, not great" category but, in a massive sample set like Division 1 college basketball, "good" tends to cover a pretty big qualitative range (and Iowa is likely on the high side of that range). If you think a "good, not great" team can't do a Elite 8 or even Final Four run, you're nuts!
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Iowa can beat team's without playing great, but Iowa can play great. Not consistently maybe, but for one big game.
 
I look at it as a loss to learn from. This was a tournament they wanted to win but wasn’t “the tournament” they were focused on. I hope this lights a fire and drives home the fact that if they can’t keep teams out of the paint and don’t prevent them from getting to the rim the next loss will be even more painful.
 
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