I lean towards your way of thinking for sure.... But you never know about the flukes that can happen in a game that can stretch a game out. Kick returns turnovers etc. Weather if say it's crazy windy so the offense is only able to throw half the game. There are ways it could turn into a blow out but if it's a strait up game I lean towards a 7-10 pt game. Like I'd said Iowa will have to play really well to win by more then 14 and typically they aren't running on all cylinders the first game either.With Kirk's conservative approach and Gerg Davis' horizontal passing attack, this will not be more than a two-score difference one way or the other.