Why Iowa can win the West
- Thread starter NCHawker
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HawkinGoferLand
Well-Known Member
I missed it too, plus I couldn't read it all cuz it's In$ider
imported_ankle23
Well-Known Member
The combination of the decline of Wisconsin and the new Big Ten conference alignment placing the two teams that finished the 2013 regular season unbeaten in conference play (Michigan State and Ohio State) into the East division may open the door for a West division underdog to surprise the world by earning a spot in the Big Ten title game.
One strong contender for that role is the Iowa Hawkeyes. Returning 14 starters from a team that went 8-5 last year earned Iowa the No. 19 spot on Mark Schlabach's Way-Too-Early Top 25 and gives the program a shot at 10 wins. However, a closer look at the game tape, metrics and recruiting illustrates why this club should be aiming even higher than a top-20 finish in the 2014 campaign.
Offensive outlook
It starts at quarterback. Jake Rudock showcased some talent in his first year as a starter, as he posted seven games with an Adjusted Total QBR of 64 or higher. This metric adjusts a quarterback's Raw Total QBR by the relative strength of the opposing team and thus indicates Rudock was in the 64th performance percentile or higher in more than half of his starts.
Rudock also fared reasonably well in the bad decision rate (BDR) metric that measures how often a quarterback makes a mental error that leads to a turnover opportunity for the opposing team. His 2.8 percent BDR in Big Ten games last season was a bit higher than the 2.0-to-2.5 percent BDR that serves as the median performance level for quarterbacks in a passing offense like the one Iowa operates, but there is a clear path for improvement.
Four of Rudock's seven errors were at least partially the result of his not seeing a zone defender in the passing lane he was throwing through. This type of mistake is common for first-year starters and often occurs less as the quarterback gains more experience reading defenses.
Rudock is likely to keep the starting job through spring practice, but in the event he does falter, Iowa has a number of other options. C.J. Beathard, who filled in for Rudock last year, would be the first name to come to mind, but the Hawkeyes could also have an eye toward getting four-star recruit Tyler Wiegers into the mix. Wiegers was listed as one of the best college football recruiting flips in the Big Ten.
Iowa also returns all three of its top rushers from the 2013 season (Mark Weisman, Jordan Canzeri and Damon Bullock). This trio can't be considered a game-breaking group, as according to ESPN Stats & Information Iowa rushers gained 5 or more yards on only 38.4 percent of their carries last season (which ranked ninth in the conference). However, the group is highly adept at avoiding negative plays. Iowa's ball carriers were stopped for zero or fewer yards on 18.7 percent of their attempts, a total that ranked second best in the Big Ten.
This number additionally reflects well on the offensive line, a unit that gave up the fewest sacks in the Big Ten last year. Only three of the seven sacks the Hawkeyes allowed in Big Ten play were of the one-on-one variety (where a pass-rusher beats a blocker and gets to the quarterback within three seconds of the snap), so teams almost never beat one of their blockers clean. The Hawkeyes get three starters back from this group and thus have a firm blocking base in place.
In the receiving corps, Iowa returns six of the eight players who tallied double-digit receptions last year. Losing first-team All-Big Ten tight end C.J. Fiedorowicz is a negative, but the Hawkeyes do have 2013 four-star recruit Jon Wisnieski waiting in the wings. There could also be a wild card in the receiving corps, as head coach Kirk Ferentz recently said in an interview with ESPN.com's Chantel Jennings that four-star recruit Jay Scheel is "an electrifying performer."
Defensive outlook
The Hawkeyes' biggest offseason personnel issues look to be on defense, but even those departures don't look too daunting.
Iowa does bring back five starters and 10 of 11 players who were listed second on the depth chart from a platoon that ranked in the top 10 nationally in six major defensive categories (points/yards/passing yards/first downs allowed per game, yards per play and yards per pass attempt) and ranked 11th in Total QBR. This is a defense built around the collective strength of the players rather than around stars, and returning this many players should help the Hawkeyes keep their numbers in the near-elite territory.
A lot of this returning depth is up front, as Iowa gets three starters back from its defensive line. The Hawkeyes also will have six of seven defensive linemen who registered a sack last season. The potential standout of this group is Louis Trinca-Pasat, who ranked 12th among Big Ten defensive linemen in tackles for loss and whose bull rush was capable of bowling over offensive blockers.
Most of the personnel changes will take place among a linebacking corps and secondary that has a combined two starters returning. To find out how the Hawkeyes can go about addressing this, I asked ESPN Big Ten recruiting reporter Tom VanHaaren for his thoughts on Iowa's recruiting talent base in those areas over the past few seasons.
"The Hawkeyes have some promising pieces in the secondary," said VanHaaren. "With Desmond King earning a starting spot as a true freshman at corner, that locks down his position for the next few years. The free safety spot is going to be open with Tanner Miller moving on, and Anthony Gair could be a guy to step in and fill that role. Gair was a part of the 2012 class and has good size and good reaction and anticipation. If Jordan Lomax is slotted for the corner spot opposite King, then Gair could be the guy tabbed at free safety."
Elsewhere on defense, VanHaaren pointed to linebacker as one of the most challenging positions in terms of replacing departing starters.
"Linebacker is where Iowa will see the most changes on defense, with three seniors leaving the corps from this past season," he said. "All were big contributors and all three -- James Morris, Christian Kirksey and Anthony Hitchens -- are headed to the NFL combine.
"Replacing that experience and production will be difficult, but if you're looking at potential younger players to step up, Reggie Spearman could be a guy to come in and help out early on at the weakside linebacker spot. Spearman was listed second on the depth chart as a freshman behind Hitchens, so he is looking like the man to beat heading into this next season."
Schedule advantages, overall outlook
Another positive element for this club is a very favorable schedule. Iowa starts the year with four nonconference foes, and five of its first six conference games come against teams that finished last season with a combined nine wins in Big Ten contests. (Note: Maryland is the other team Iowa faces in this stretch, and it went just 3-5 against conference opponents while playing in the ACC last season.)
It would not be a shock to see Iowa start 5-1, or possibly 6-0, in Big Ten play. If that occurred, it would mean the Hawkeyes would head into home matchups against Wisconsin (Nov. 22) and Nebraska (Nov. 28) with a possible Big Ten West division title on the line. If they win both of those final matchups, or even if they win just one, the Hawkeyes have a strong shot of winning the Big Ten West.
Given the team's strong returning base of starters, promising recruits and advantageous schedule, Iowa very well could be playing for the Big Ten title in 2014.
HawkinGoferLand
Well-Known Member
^ gracious!
HawkeyeMHA
Well-Known Member
This unfortunately
From article "Given the team's strong returning base of starters, promising recruits and advantageous schedule, Iowa very well could be playing for the Big Ten title in 2014."
Very exciting and possible turnaround in just two years.
To me, last year it seemed the team some uncertainty early on which is to be expected but I thought the younger coaching staff and some wins created a solid, positive team element.
I think the hawks found some chemistry last year between coaches and players, they had great seniors.
I really expect to see the leadership and teamwork continue at a high positive level.
It would be great to see a 10-2 types season and a berth in the Big 10 Champ game.
Very exciting and possible turnaround in just two years.
To me, last year it seemed the team some uncertainty early on which is to be expected but I thought the younger coaching staff and some wins created a solid, positive team element.
I think the hawks found some chemistry last year between coaches and players, they had great seniors.
I really expect to see the leadership and teamwork continue at a high positive level.
It would be great to see a 10-2 types season and a berth in the Big 10 Champ game.
tm3308
Well-Known Member
But this is just an expectation to win the division. Totally different, so we're clear.
homes
Well-Known Member
I would only change the title to Why Iowa Will Win the West. I think they're poised to do bigger things next year. Favorable schedule. Talent and experience in key positions. Another season with the coaching staff in place. Taste of success last year. Barring some key injuries, I see no reason to not be excited for next year, and yeah, have high expectations for the Hawks. Past be damned. Looking forward.
74Hunter
Well-Known Member
I agree. IMO, more than anything, having that schedule will pay big dividends for Iowa.
Oh no doubt the games will be tough, no one said the hawks can just to a walk through and get a Win.
At Pitt will be difficult, NW got Mark back for another year,
I am hoping the equation is the offense clicks for 7-9 more points a game on average and the defense catches up to the offense as the season goes along.
I think we will see some growing pains with the linebackers and secondary.
But our secondary was really pretty solid and salty the last half last year
HawkeyeDenis
Well-Known Member
I am looking forward to see how well the offensive and defensive lines perform. With Scherff returning the O' line should be outstanding. Defensively, I expect these guys to move towards being one of the best D'lines in the conference. Both sides should come in a little heavier and stronger. Would love to see Davis hit 320+. Scherff, it's his audition year (again) so hopefully he'll come in bigger and badder than ever.
BILLBUCKNER
Well-Known Member
Did KF really describe Scheel as an 'electrifying talent'??? I don't remember ever hearing him heap that kind of praise on an incoming player.
