What should/could NCAA do to regain control?

[eyekwah]

The economic term that describes the confluence of NIL, Transfer Portal and Conference Realignment is "creative destruction" and major college sports are at the early stage of it. Athletic departments are attempting to address change and struggling because there are no rules. The Academic Administrators are just as lost. They have declining enrollment and the Athletic Departments are principal marketing tools to attract and keep students. In this environment no consensus is on the horizon. The NCAA is an albatross as well. There are about 70 Universities that could form a new organization and may be better off.

In some ways things today are reminiscent of the time period college football had uneven levels of recruitment. The Big 8 allowed 45 football scholarships per year and the Big 10 allowed only 30 for much of the 70's and 80's. The Big Ten had only the Rose Bowl Alliance and other conferences allowed more than one. This environment created big competitive discrepancies within conferences and between conferences. There were other issues academically as well. It lead to Ohio State and Michigan dominating the Big Ten conference in football. Things didn't really change until the B1G conference relaxed participation in Bowl games and the NCAA reduced the scholarship levels for football and basketball. Some of that was forced by Title ?9 to pay for women's sports.

The central issue that appears to be the major concern is "Fairness". It's my opinion that the only people that can resolve the issue of fairness are the academic administrators and they can only do a minimal amount of rule and regulation writing. In order to do that it will be necessary to form a new organization with limited membership. The academic administrators can set the rules for admission, participation, and academic progress. If the universities can't or won't perform this basic function major college sports probably won't creatively destruct they will just destruct.

 

[Fryowa]

But I still find it hard to believe that the pro sports model used successfully in all other major US sport is not a possibility. If the top 25 teams decided they were going to form a PROFESSIONAL football league and pay their players a salary, there is not a viable opportunity for anyone to exist outside that league.

Again, it would only be a possibility if everyone went in together. It would also leave the opportunity and doors open for other schools with a bunch of money to trump any league that the top ranked (currently) teams could put together.

I actually believe this entire discussion is moot, however.

What I truly believe is going to happen is the market will settle. This is a brand new economic market, and like any in history it starts out hot and settles into equilibrium. It won't take very many Kadyn Proctors and Charlie Joneses flopping for boosters to realize that it's a dead gamble paying high school recruits these huge sums of money for no return. Looking at the Charlie Jones situation, some people paid a staggering amount of money to get him to play there and he had an absolutely unreal season. But they didn't do shit as a team and all that money didn't do anything to buy wins. That kind of payout isn’t going to continue.

If Kadyn Proctor or a guy like him gets $5-10 million to come play for Alabama or A&M and flops, boosters are eventually going to think twice.

This is tulip mania and eventually it will normalize. Eventually players are going to get way closer to their actual return value. Until then we are going to exist in a Wild West space.

 

[Fryowa]

The central issue that appears to be the major concern is "Fairness". It's my opinion that the only people that can resolve the issue of fairness are the academic administrators and they can only do a minimal amount of rule and regulation writing.

By default that can't be the central issue, because "fairness" means something totally different depending on whether you're talking to administrators, fans, players, or boosters. Just because some administrators declare something as fair doesn't make it so. Then you're just back to conflict, i.e. lawsuits, and we know how that woould turn out.

Regardless, you're making the assumption that there is an entity capable of setting rules and having the power to enforce them. That doesn't exist.

You say this will lead to destruction. I disagree. This will lead to change, which you are interpreting to be destruction. Not all of us share your view of what college sports should look like.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Again, it would only be a possibility if everyone went in together. It would also leave the opportunity and doors open for other schools with a bunch of money to trump any league that the top ranked (currently) teams could put together.

I actually believe this entire discussion is moot, however.

What I truly believe is going to happen is the market will settle. This is a brand new economic market, and like any in history it starts out hot and settles into equilibrium. It won't take very many Kadyn Proctors and Charlie Joneses flopping for boosters to realize that it's a dead gamble paying high school recruits these huge sums of money for no return. Looking at the Charlie Jones situation, some people paid a staggering amount of money to get him to play there and he had an absolutely unreal season. But they didn't do shit as a team and all that money didn't do anything to buy wins.

If Kadyn Proctor or a guy like him gets $5-10 million to come play for Alabama or A&M and flops, boosters are eventually going to think twice.

This is tulip mania and eventually it will normalize. Eventually players are going to get way closer to their actual return value. Until then we are going to exist in a Wild West space.

No. Everyone going into it together is the textbook definition of a restraint on trade or commerce. Neither the NCAA nor any conference or school is going to risk the wrath of courts that have power to assess treble damages.

It will be a total shitshow until a few kids get burned and get very public about it, which I absolutely guarantee everyone will happen. When some SEC school has an NIL collective that shirks on payment obligations and then the school can't recruit for five years then the schools will finally get together and try to create some sort of set of "protections" but a shitload of people will have to get burned first.

There is absolutely no way that the NIL collectives are creditworthy counterparties and as a practical matter there will be very little recourse for anyone who has a breach claim against one. Anyone who takes a deal without cash delivered at signing or an airtight dedicated escrow account is merely entering into an option contract.

 

[okeefe4prez]

By default that can't be the central issue, because "fairness" means something totally different depending on whether you're talking to administrators, fans, players, or boosters. Just because some administrators declare something as fair doesn't make it so. Then you're just back to conflict, i.e. lawsuits, and we know how that woould turn out.

Regardless, you're making the assumption that there is an entity capable of setting rules and having the power to enforce them. That doesn't exist.

You say this will lead to destruction. I disagree. This will lead to change, which you are interpreting to be destruction. Not all of us share your view of what college sports should look like.

I would be surprised if it doesn't lead to destruction of most college football programs that are outside of the elite conferences or that have insane amounts of brand equity that can stand on its own. If I'm an admin at Western Michigan it ain't gonna take many years of Michigan State and Iowa raiding all of my football players before I say "enough of this shit." The ROI on basketball is so much higher.

If you're Eastern Carolina and you beat Duke in round 2 of the tournament that shit will boost your school tremendously. There has only been one comparable football game, that was when App State beat Michigan. But the metrics are clear, if you're a program like Gonzaga, Creighton, Florida Gulf Coast, Davidson, etc., all it takes is one star player or one run and your school will get 100x the national exposure it could ever hope to get from ad spend and the ROI is way better there than with football.

 

[Fryowa]

I would be surprised if it doesn't lead to destruction of most college football programs that are outside of the elite conferences or that have insane amounts of brand equity that can stand on its own. If I'm an admin at Western Michigan it ain't gonna take many years of Michigan State and Iowa raiding all of my football players before I say "enough of this shit." The ROI on basketball is so much higher.

If you're Eastern Carolina and you beat Duke in round 2 of the tournament that shit will boost your school tremendously. There has only been one comparable football game, that was when App State beat Michigan. But the metrics are clear, if you're a program like Gonzaga, Creighton, Florida Gulf Coast, Davidson, etc., all it takes is one star player or one run and your school will get 100x the national exposure it could ever hope to get from ad spend and the ROI is way better there than with football.

I should've clarified that I'm talking P5, and even within that framework excluding half the Big 8 and Pac 10 schools.

 

[okeefe4prez]

I should've clarified that I'm talking P5, and even within that framework excluding half the Big 8 and Pac 10 schools.

Got it. Thank you for calling the subpar conferences by their proper names. I appreciate it.

 

[nilekinnick]

not sure the tax laws,
1. I expect players need to report nil money as taxable income (better than under the table cash)
2. I don't think contributions to nil collectives are tax deductable
3. perhaps donations to universities are? or should be tax deductible to make it more enticing where people donate to.

still in favor of NIL but this was never the intent and I cannot imagine we be good in the long term

 

[HaydenHawk56]

1) Supreme Court won't take it on again. They already did and they aren't in the habit of wasting their time rearguing opinions a year or two after their previous one. Look how long it took for them to reexamine abortion and that was an actual topic that affects people and means something.

2) What's the basis? "The NFL has salary caps....DERP" The NFL is a private business that chose to do so because it thought it improved it's product. The NCAA doesn't own teams or facilities. And how can you argue that society is being harmed by not implementing salary caps or transfer restrictions? Because a bunch of middle age and elderly rich white guys want the old days back? LOL

Well the US Supreme Court did change abortion laws (not that I agree, but that is off topic subject) among other things.....so to say that they would not take this case back up and some point in time.....maybe not anytime soon.

What is the basis? Because they have turned college sports into essentially a Pro League...maybe by not the strictest of definitions as this money is coming from 3rd parties....but the money is arguably..or will get there as big as the pros. The system of haves and have nots is only going to continue to grow.....and I suspect...even before NIL hit was a boulder to climb for the non-elites.....society just may get tired of seeing the same four teams battling it out for the National Title essentially year after year.

At least in the Pros they have guidelines....and they have a draft where the best players out of college that year tend to go to the worse teams to try to balance things out.

It is not about having the best coaches anymore or the best facilities in the strictest sense to help develop players. It is about having deep pockets that can buy everything now and completely unrestricted when funnelled through 3rd parties along with great coaching and facilities.

I don't know about you, but I would like to see some teams break the glass ceiling every now and then...and that would include our Hawkeyes.

I don't think Alabama or Ohio St would be hurt by some regulation....but it may help teams like Iowa somewhat.

I guess it just comes down to what your overall philosophy is? Do you want it to be the wild-west, or do you want a system with some structure and rules to go by?

 

[Fryowa]

Well the US Supreme Court did change abortion laws (not that I agree, but that is off topic subject) among other things.....so to say that they would not take this case back up and some point in time.....maybe not anytime soon.

What is the basis? Because they have turned college sports into essentially a Pro League...maybe by not the strictest of definitions as this money is coming from 3rd parties....but the money is arguably..or will get there as big as the pros. The system of haves and have nots is only going to continue to grow.....and I suspect...even before NIL hit was a boulder to climb for the non-elites.....society just may get tired of seeing the same four teams battling it out for the National Title essentially year after year.

At least in the Pros they have guidelines....and they have a draft where the best players out of college that year tend to go to the worse teams to try to balance things out.

It is not about having the best coaches anymore or the best facilities in the strictest sense to help develop players. It is about having deep pockets that can buy everything now and completely unrestricted when funnelled through 3rd parties along with great coaching and facilities.

I don't know about you, but I would like to see some teams break the glass ceiling every now and then...and that would include our Hawkeyes.

I don't think Alabama or Ohio St would be hurt by some regulation....but it may help teams like Iowa somewhat.

I guess it just comes down to what your overall philosophy is? Do you want it to be the wild-west, or do you want a system with some structure and rules to go by?

Again...

What is your basis and argument for how society is being harmed by not having salary caps in college football and not allowing students to transfer?

You're wanting the Supreme Court to listen to arguments backed up by, "Because the way they're doing it is taking my fun away." Doesn't hold water.

 

[Fryowa]

Well the US Supreme Court did change abortion laws (not that I agree, but that is off topic subject) among other things.....so to say that they would not take this case back up and some point in time.....maybe not anytime soon.

What is the basis? Because they have turned college sports into essentially a Pro League...maybe by not the strictest of definitions as this money is coming from 3rd parties....but the money is arguably..or will get there as big as the pros. The system of haves and have nots is only going to continue to grow.....and I suspect...even before NIL hit was a boulder to climb for the non-elites.....society just may get tired of seeing the same four teams battling it out for the National Title essentially year after year.

At least in the Pros they have guidelines....and they have a draft where the best players out of college that year tend to go to the worse teams to try to balance things out.

It is not about having the best coaches anymore or the best facilities in the strictest sense to help develop players. It is about having deep pockets that can buy everything now and completely unrestricted when funnelled through 3rd parties along with great coaching and facilities.

I don't know about you, but I would like to see some teams break the glass ceiling every now and then...and that would include our Hawkeyes.

I don't think Alabama or Ohio St would be hurt by some regulation....but it may help teams like Iowa somewhat.

I guess it just comes down to what your overall philosophy is? Do you want it to be the wild-west, or do you want a system with some structure and rules to go by?

Also, if you're going to use the NFL model as justification, the NFL is a private business that made that decision itself. It has just as much ability to get rid of salary caps and have a free for all.

If you're going to call college football a "pro league," doesn't a pro league have it's own right to decide if it has salary caps or not?

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Again...

What is your basis and argument for how society is being harmed by not having salary caps in college football and not allowing students to transfer?

You're wanting the Supreme Court to listen to arguments backed up by, "Because the way they're doing it is taking my fun away." Doesn't hold water.

Fry this is your opinion. Look, I know we are probably some years away if they go back and revisit things rules wise. But, I do believe in the fairness argument and that is my opinion. I don't think a monopoly is good long term for sports and keeping interest levels. Dynasties from time to time are great, but the underdog story is also valued. Just my take.

 

[trj]

You bring in a politician to replace the outgoing President Mark Emmert.

 

[trj]

No. Everyone going into it together is the textbook definition of a restraint on trade or commerce. Neither the NCAA nor any conference or school is going to risk the wrath of courts that have power to assess treble damages.

It will be a total shitshow until a few kids get burned and get very public about it, which I absolutely guarantee everyone will happen. When some SEC school has an NIL collective that shirks on payment obligations and then the school can't recruit for five years then the schools will finally get together and try to create some sort of set of "protections" but a shitload of people will have to get burned first.

There is absolutely no way that the NIL collectives are creditworthy counterparties and as a practical matter there will be very little recourse for anyone who has a breach claim against one. Anyone who takes a deal without cash delivered at signing or an airtight dedicated escrow account is merely entering into an option contract.

Creighton and Texas Tech basketball already have dudes crying about not getting their NIL money that they were supposedly promised.

 

[okeefe4prez]

Creighton and Texas Tech basketball already have dudes crying about not getting their NIL money that they were supposedly promised.

Already? I figured it would take at least two big cycles for that to happen. Thanks for that, though, it truly warms my heart to know the NCAA is helping kids learn the important points of contracting. Most of them will go pro in something other than sports, you know.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Also, if you're going to use the NFL model as justification, the NFL is a private business that made that decision itself. It has just as much ability to get rid of salary caps and have a free for all.

If you're going to call college football a "pro league," doesn't a pro league have it's own right to decide if it has salary caps or not?

To be clear, just to re-emphasis college sports is not a pro-league in the strict sense of the word, but it essentially is....the money is just funneled different. Instead of Nike generously supplementing a top pro player's NBA salary......the college player's 3rd party endorsement (say Danny's European Auto) is reality is an appropriation to get them to come play for a school....hence their salary for playing at that school.

And the difference here:
Pro-League has regulated salaries and possible endorsements on top of it.
College Sports has possible endorsements that are really the player's salaries....and no regulation.

To answer your question, yes a given private league would be able to set it's own rules provided it does not conflict with any state or federal regulation.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

Again, it would only be a possibility if everyone went in together. It would also leave the opportunity and doors open for other schools with a bunch of money to trump any league that the top ranked (currently) teams could put together.

I actually believe this entire discussion is moot, however.

What I truly believe is going to happen is the market will settle. This is a brand new economic market, and like any in history it starts out hot and settles into equilibrium. It won't take very many Kadyn Proctors and Charlie Joneses flopping for boosters to realize that it's a dead gamble paying high school recruits these huge sums of money for no return. Looking at the Charlie Jones situation, some people paid a staggering amount of money to get him to play there and he had an absolutely unreal season. But they didn't do shit as a team and all that money didn't do anything to buy wins. That kind of payout isn’t going to continue.

If Kadyn Proctor or a guy like him gets $5-10 million to come play for Alabama or A&M and flops, boosters are eventually going to think twice.

This is tulip mania and eventually it will normalize. Eventually players are going to get way closer to their actual return value. Until then we are going to exist in a Wild West space.

I can buy this take....it is possible boosters and donors become disillusioned with paying out bigtime Pro Money and not seeing a return investment that they place high value on.

 

[SCHawkeye2]

All divisions change to the Division III model.
Students - who play football.