What is the Iowa football program's ceiling?

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iowacrawl

Member
I have long thought expectations for the Iowa football program should be BCS/playoff years 15% of the time and bowl-game years 85%.

Since his hiring, KF has reached bowl games 75% of the time and BCS games 12.5%. Not too bad.

But then I look at what Wisconsin has done with similar resources, and I think maybe my expectations are too low. What do you think? What are realistic expectations?
 
My observation is we pizz or coach away 2-3 games a year on avg so I think we should have won 12-18 more games since 2008. I have been saying this since the last half of 2005.

Several losses to ISU, directional MAC teams, etc. That is my reality.

I said this year we were probably 8-4 because the schedule might have been 10-2 (wisky had lost their whole defense and I thought Nebby would be a win) but I knew the coaches would scheme away two games, which they did by not running the ball at maryland and by losing to a terrible ISU team.

So right now I think the hawks will continue to be a 7-5 or 8-4 regular season team but I could see 5-7 or 6-6 next year.
 
Without going into specific numbers and percentages, I think the ceiling is about what we saw throughout the Fry era in the 80s and early 90s, and what we saw the first half of the Ferentz era. Roundabouts. Good to very good teams with the occasional shot (maybe once per decade) at being in the national title picture, and occasional off years, but in the top 25 more often than not.

I also think that Wisconsin and MSU are similar programs to what Iowa could be.

Most of the past decade is certainly below this program's ceiling.
 
In this division of this conference (the worst division in the worst Power 5 conference in the nation), we should be in the Big 10 title game 33.333% of the time (Wisconsin and Nebraska the other 66.667% of the time). We should then win the Big 10 title game 50% of those times. Therefore, the ceiling should be 1.6665 conference titles every 10 years.
 
Ceiling used to be a Big Ten Title (co or shared) with a bowl loss in the Rose Bowl. Or finish like 2nd-3rd overall in the conference and win a New Years Day Bowl (or BCS Bowl). Average was 7 wins with a mid to upper ter mid bowl game.

As it stands now, I think our ceiling is 7-9 wins with a mid to upper ter mid bowl game. Average will be 5-6 wins.

We are slipping.
 
Going back to 1980 with Hayden, Iowa has averaged a B10 title every 5 years. I think we are currently in the longest drought in that period.
 
iowacrawl said:
I have long thought expectations for the Iowa football program should be BCS/playoff years 15% of the time and bowl-game years 85%.

Since his hiring, KF has reached bowl games 75% of the time and BCS games 12.5%. Not too bad.

But then I look at what Wisconsin has done with similar resources, and I think maybe my expectations are too low. What do you think? What are realistic expectations?
Click to expand...


The the current coach we have hit the ceiling. Dont believe me check th record sense he has been here.

My expectation every year is 9 wins for a coach making 3 million + and been on the job for 16 years. I dont think that is asking too much.
 
We should win 4 non con games 3 out of 4 years and win 3 out of 4 the 4th year. Our average in the big should be between 4 and 5 wins. So say 4.5. We should average around 8.5 wins a year.

There is no ceiling really because if we found the right coach that was loyal to staying at iowa, with the way the conference is right now, we could be the best team in our division for years to come. We wouldn't even have to be great to do it.
 
Anything is possible with the right coach. Look at Baylor, KState, Oregon, Okie State, TCU ... You bring in the right guy who knows how to recruit then you win at Iowa and you can win on a more regular basis then what we have accepted as the norm.

Sure, our population base is small. But so what... Bring in a coach who can recruit then it doesn't matter how small our population is because that coach is not going to depend on recruits from the state of Iowa and is going to recruit nationally. I have been a Hawk fan for 35 years... Seen lots of ups and downs... Folks, we have the facilities and the fan base and the revenue to compete at a higher level than we have been. There is no reason Iowa can't average 9 wins a season... With the right coach. Bring in the players... You win games. When I lived in Oregon in the early 90s Oregon football was non existent. I mean NON existent. Fan support was dismal.... Change can happen... Sadly, we have adopted the persona of our coach who for 16 years has told anyone who will listen that we aren't a sexy program .... We listen to this. We start to believe it... We limit our expectations and we still go to Kinnick... Win, lose, or draw. You sort of get what you accept. Example: Iowa wrestling. We EXPECT to compete every season for the national title. Those are our expectations. In football, well, When you look at Kirk's overall schedule and 41-39 record as of late .... That is average ... And that does not match what fans and what the school have invested in the product. But yet, we accept it and continue to tell ourselves we are lil 'ol Iowa.
 
iowacrawl said:
I have long thought expectations for the Iowa football program should be BCS/playoff years 15% of the time and bowl-game years 85%.

Since his hiring, KF has reached bowl games 75% of the time and BCS games 12.5%. Not too bad.

But then I look at what Wisconsin has done with similar resources, and I think maybe my expectations are too low. What do you think? What are realistic expectations?
Click to expand...

I think those % are too limited as they leave out a lot of stuff... I also think just on base value they are too low.

For one bowl games are almost meaningless to me...

Also our division in the Big Ten is weak... we should do much better then we do.

The teams of yesteryears would be headed to Lucas Oil probably at a min 1 out of 3 years... and we have NEVER been.
 
Bigtenchamp said:
I think those % are too limited as they leave out a lot of stuff... I also think just on base value they are too low.

For one bowl games are almost meaningless to me...

Also our division in the Big Ten is weak... we should do much better then we do.

The teams of yesteryears would be headed to Lucas Oil probably at a min 1 out of 3 years... and we have NEVER been.
Click to expand...
I asked his same question a few weeks ago.. I think the ceiling is to finish the year in the top 10. Win the BIG championship once a decade. A coach like Bielema could exceed those expectations but we would be lucky to get him now. Florida and Michigan may be targeting him and if he lands a gig like that he'll never come back to Iowa.
 
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