What does Iowa have to do to win the West?

ChosenChildren

ChosenChildren

Well-Known Member
Maybe this has already been posted, but Iowa DOES NOT have to win out. Iowa must win one of the next two road games and then defeat both Nebraska and Wisconsin at home. Minnesota plays Ohio State, at Nebraska and at Wisconsin so I believe they will end up with at least 3 losses even if they defeat Iowa.

If Iowa goes 3-1 with wins over Wisconsin and Nebraska, they are the champions because Iowa wins all the tiebreakers.
 
If we can't beat MN and IL I don't think we have much of a shot at Wisconsin or Nebraska. Even if we have a close game with MN and lose and then crush IL I think we are ok. IL is terrible and winning that game big is key.
 
hawkinn3 said:
If we can't beat MN and IL I don't think we have much of a shot at Wisconsin or Nebraska. Even if we have a close game with MN and lose and then crush IL I think we are ok. IL is terrible and winning that game big is key.
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We are very good at not being consistant so I have to disagree with you. :)
 
They need to win the following games:

Minnesota, Illinois, Wisconsin and Nebraska.

If they do that they will win the west.
 
eveningnewsteam said:
Stop the run
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I agree. Iowa *should* be able to handle Illinois even if they don't play their A-Game. That leaves Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska, all of which are run-heavy. If Iowa can stop the run, they have a great chance to win the West. If they can't and they perform like they did in the first half against Pitt, the Hawkeyes could easily go 1-3 down the stretch.
 
Just win the next game period. Right now it is all Minnesota. Then Illinois and so on and so on. Hopefully we leave nothing to chance and win out.
 
We get Minny following their bye week @ Minny. I give us about a 50% chance of winning.

We get Illinois following their bye week @ Illinois. I give us about a 70% change of winning.

We play Wisky at home. 60% Chance of winning.

We play Nebby at home. 30% Chance of winning.

Our chances of winning out the season and winning the West are 6.3%

That's 6.3% higher than I expected after nearly losing to UNI and getting kicked by our little brothers in their yearly Super Bowl. Maryland is a decent middle of the pack Big10 team and so is Iowa.

Final standings:
East
MSU (11-1)
fOSU (10-2)
Maryland (8-4)
The rest

West
Nebraska (11-1)
Tie: Wisky, Iowa, Minny (8-4) overall
The rest


Bowl Pecking Order
MSU - BCS game (after some political BS about the SEC)
Nebby
fOSU
Maryland
Wisky
Iowa
Minny
 
hawkeye12345 said:
We get Minny following their bye week @ Minny. I give us about a 50% chance of winning.

We get Illinois following their bye week @ Illinois. I give us about a 70% change of winning.

We play Wisky at home. 60% Chance of winning.

We play Nebby at home. 30% Chance of winning.

Our chances of winning out the season and winning the West are 6.3%

That's 6.3% higher than I expected after nearly losing to UNI and getting kicked by our little brothers in their yearly Super Bowl. Maryland is a decent middle of the pack Big10 team and so is Iowa.

Final standings:
East
MSU (11-1)
fOSU (10-2)
Maryland (8-4)
The rest

West
Nebraska (11-1)
Tie: Wisky, Iowa, Minny (8-4) overall
The rest


Bowl Pecking Order
MSU - BCS game (after some political BS about the SEC)
Nebby
fOSU
Maryland
Wisky
Iowa
Minny
Click to expand...

I give us about a 10% chance of winning the West. Very tough final 4 games.
 
The big ten is a funny division this year. Iowa dominated NW, who beat Wisconsin, who crushed Maryland, who beat Iowa. Doesn't make a whole lot of sense...

I think the moral of the story is that the Big Ten as a whole is pretty average, especially the West. Nebraska seems to be the best team in the West right now but Abdullah sprained his MCL and might miss time. Minnesota IMO is extremely overrated. Sure they beat Michigan in the big house, but is that really an accomplishment? They lost @illinois, beat NW by 7 and barely won a home game against Purdue.

My guess is Iowa wins fairly comfortably against MN and Illinois, plays a coin flip game against Wisconsin and then the Nebraska game has potential to be the biggest Kinnick matchup since OSU in 2006. Hopefully the game/season turns out a little better than that one did
 
hawkeye12345 said:
We get Minny following their bye week @ Minny. I give us about a 50% chance of winning.

We get Illinois following their bye week @ Illinois. I give us about a 70% change of winning.

We play Wisky at home. 60% Chance of winning.

We play Nebby at home. 30% Chance of winning.

Our chances of winning out the season and winning the West are 6.3%

That's 6.3% higher than I expected after nearly losing to UNI and getting kicked by our little brothers in their yearly Super Bowl. Maryland is a decent middle of the pack Big10 team and so is Iowa.

Final standings:
East
MSU (11-1)
fOSU (10-2)
Maryland (8-4)
The rest

West
Nebraska (11-1)
Tie: Wisky, Iowa, Minny (8-4) overall
The rest


Bowl Pecking Order
MSU - BCS game (after some political BS about the SEC)
Nebby
fOSU
Maryland
Wisky
Iowa
Minny
Click to expand...


I would change Nebraska to at least 40% (higher if the winner of the game wins the division). And I would eliminate Illinois from the equation because I don't think a win or loss in that game changes anything. Can anyone confirm if we control our own destiny by beatin Minn, Wis, and Neb?
 
PCHawk said:
I would change Nebraska to at least 40% (higher if the winner of the game wins the division). And I would eliminate Illinois from the equation because I don't think a win or loss in that game changes anything. Can anyone confirm if we control our own destiny by beatin Minn, Wis, and Neb?
Click to expand...

By my reading, if Iowa beats Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska the Hawkeyes would be the West division champs. That would make Iowa 6-2. At best, Minnesota could be 6-2, but they also have games with Ohio State and roadies at Nebraska and Wisconsin. Highly unlikely Gophers get to 6-2. Wisconsin and Nebraska also have to play each other, so if Iowa beats both teams the loser of the Wisky-Nebraska game would have a third conference loss. In all likelihood, Iowa is the champion if it defeats either Minnesota or Illinois the next 2 weeks, and then sweeps Wisconsin and Nebraska. The first tiebreaker for determining division winner is winner of the game between those two teams. If 3 teams are tied, the tiebreaker is the head-to-head against the teams in the tie.

Things get trickier for Iowa with wins over Minnesota and Illinois, but then a loss to either Wisconsin or Nebraska. Things that could help Iowa down the stretch:

Purdue upsetting Wisconsin this week in WL. Wisconsin is the clear favorite, but Boilers have been playing better.
Ohio State beating Minnesota. I don't think Gophers will be a factor if Iowa beats them, but don't need Gophers getting an unexpected win.

Bottom line: a win against Minnesota this weekend ensures Iowa has a lot on the line the last 2 weeks of the season.
 
PCHawk said:
I would change Nebraska to at least 40% (higher if the winner of the game wins the division). And I would eliminate Illinois from the equation because I don't think a win or loss in that game changes anything. Can anyone confirm if we control our own destiny by beatin Minn, Wis, and Neb?
Click to expand...

I can't confirm it with actual science, but I cant envision any circumstance in which iowa doesn't control its destiny here.
 
PCHawk said:
I would change Nebraska to at least 40% (higher if the winner of the game wins the division). And I would eliminate Illinois from the equation because I don't think a win or loss in that game changes anything. Can anyone confirm if we control our own destiny by beatin Minn, Wis, and Neb?
Click to expand...

If Iowa defeats Minnesota, Wisconsin and Nebraska and loses to Illinois they win the division and go to the championship game. No doubt about it.

As said before, I also believe there is a very high likelihood we go to the championship game if we defeat IL, WIS and NEB.

Need to win one of next two and then "all hands on deck" for the final two games against two very good teams.
 
thejumper5 said:
I agree. Iowa *should* be able to handle Illinois even if they don't play their A-Game. That leaves Minnesota, Wisconsin, and Nebraska, all of which are run-heavy. If Iowa can stop the run, they have a great chance to win the West. If they can't and they perform like they did in the first half against Pitt, the Hawkeyes could easily go 1-3 down the stretch.
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How many times do we have to lose to Iowa State before everyone stops thinking like this?
 
If I am Kf, i go all out to beat minnie, so i can rest up guys like mw against IL and have them fresh for the last two. Might drop one in champagne a la isu and md...but in the long run what really matters is a B1G championship.
 
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