what are the odds?

clicheusername3

clicheusername3

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What is everyone's odds for next years freshman class to see the NCAA tournament?

I put it at a 25% chance and I think that is generous.
 
Hard to put a percentage on at this point. We have yet to see next years freshman class play D1 basketball and we have largely yet to see Coach Fran's style as a coach, a recruiter, and a person. As a guess based on his track record, I'll say 80%
 
There are question marks with this hire but...wow.

If they are here for 4 years without even making it to the NCAA's...I'm not thinking about that. Let's let the guy get here before we start declaring the program dead.
 
I would say the odds of Iowa making the big dance are dependent on two variables:

1) What are the odds of Harrison Barnes decommitting from UNC and coming to Iowa now that we have this awesome new coach; and

2) What are the odds of the NCAA expanding the tournament field to 256 teams so that teams finishing around 200th in the RPI are legitimate "bubble teams."

If either one of those are 25%, then I think you are correct with your 25% assessment.
 
Tough to put odds on that one considering none of us have seen the incoming class play at the college level and the coach has been in place less than 8 hours.

I will give you a percentage though. 100% more exciting style of play coming to town.
 
hawkytalk said:
clich,I respect your thoughts,what did you think of GB's choice?
Click to expand...

Only time will tell. He definitely accomplished 2 things here, 1)he brought in a coach that has an uptempo style, and 2)he brought in a guy that I feel will solve the player retention problem. There could be some guys currently on the roster that leave and we could lose a recruit from this year's class but down the road it won't be a problem. It was always going to be impossible to do the two things I mentioned above AND address the other big issues such as attendance/fan support and the balls to wall recruiter that we all craved. That guy just wasn't available (and I don't think Forbes was that guy either). In a word I think this was a "Stability" hire. Which in this case is not a negative. We have to stabilize before we can move forward.
 
50/50...hard to tell. One thing that is for sure is that with Lick the odds were 0%. At least we have hope now
 
If every player stays and the entire class comes in, and he hires a rock star recruiting coordinator, I would say 95%
 
There are too many variables to consider right now. I still think it will be a few years before we are in the tournament but we'll see.
 
if he keeps everyone and the recruiting class coming in then i will say we will be there next year. That is more of my hope but i think it is a realistic chance.
 
clicheusername3 said:
What is everyone's odds for next years freshman class to see the NCAA tournament?

I put it at a 25% chance and I think that is generous.
Click to expand...

NCAA before they graduate? No redshirts? I'd say 50-50. Next year teaching new system the record will still be better than Licks. Lick taught dfense so that will carry over and help. The guys are all a year older and will have some more bodies capable of playing (probably no 1st, 2nd or 3rd team all BT but maybe a couple more honorable mentions). 12 to14 wins.

Following year I'd say 4 more wins so they are at 16 to 18.
Senior year 4 more wins, 20 to 22 wins. Not a lock for NCAA but definitely on the bubble.
 
If you think that Iowa will make the NCAA tourney next year... I think your setting the bar far too high.

I would say 10% and that may be generous.
 
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