Week 3 Betting Action

hawkfaninTX

hawkfaninTX

Well-Known Member
I'll try a different format this week. Last week my first post in the thread were all of my leans. This week I will post my game sheet that I start with, from these opening lines (Sunday Night), I then narrow it down to 20 games, or my "leans." From which they go through another filter with the release of the final Injury report and the initial Moneylines on late Thursday/early Friday (Tues/Wed for weeknight games, obviously).

The Bold/Highlighted games are what you would call my (rough) rough draft of this weeks picks. If you do bet recreationally, where i get my original info is from CFB - Team Stats | TheSpread.com or Sports Betting Odds, Picks and Statistics ? Covers.com

Enjoy, and no later than Wednesday will my 20 picks be out.

Iowa and Maryland are early favorites again with some other outlets I read, I already know these games will be in my 20: Washington St, Houston, BYU, Stanford, & Arizona State.

Week 2 Thread= 11-8-1 (57%) or $325 profit on my 20 leans. http://www.hawkeyenation.com/forum/football/32847-week-2-betting-action.html
 
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Thursday, September 15
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
8:00 PM ET -3 LSU at Mississippi State (@ WVU) & (La Tech)

Friday, September 16
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
8:00 PM ET -17 Boise State at Toledo --(Nevada) & (@ Syracuse)
8:00 PM ET +4.5 Iowa State at Connecticut --(Texas) & (@ Buffalo)

Saturday, September 17
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
12:00 PM ET +1 West Virginia at Maryland --(LSU) & (Temple)
12:00 PM ET -9.5 Penn State at Temple --(E.Michigan) & (Maryland)
12:00 PM ET +28.5 Eastern Michigan at Michigan --(@ PSU) & (San Diego St)
12:00 PM ET +8 Wyoming at Bowling Green -- (@ Nebraska) & (Miami OH)
12:00 PM ET +3.5 Auburn at Clemson --(FAU) & (Florida St)
12:00 PM ET +3.5 Pittsburgh at Iowa -- (Notre Dame) & (La Monroe)
12:00 PM ET +6.5 Central Michigan at Western Michigan --(@ Mich St) & (@ Illinois)
12:21 PM ET -1 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt -- (Georgia) & (@ South Carolina)
12:30 PM ET +14.5 Kansas at Georgia Tech --(BYE / Wk5 Texas Tech) & (North Carolina)
12:30 PM ET +7.5 Duke at Boston College --(Tulane) & (UMass)
1:30 PM ET +8.5 Colorado State vs. Colorado(*1) --(@ Utah St) & (@ Ohio St)
2:00 PM ET +27 Louisiana-Monroe at TCU --(@ Iowa) & (Portland St)
3:30 PM ET -16.5 Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois(*2) -(South Dakota) & (Cal Poly)
3:30 PM ET +17.5 Washington at Nebraska --(Cal) & (@ Wyoming)
3:30 PM ET +6 Michigan State at Notre Dame --(Cent Mich) & (Pitt)
3:30 PM ET +9 Tennessee at Florida -- (Buffalo) & (@ Kentucky)
3:30 PM ET -3 Texas at UCLA --(Bye / Wk 5 @ ISU) & (@ Oregon St)
3:30 PM ET +3 Miami (OH) at Minnesota --(Miami OH) & (North Dakota St)
3:30 PM ET +10.5 Virginia at North Carolina --(So Miss) & (@ Ga Tech)
3:30 PM ET -19 Texas Tech at New Mexico --(Nevada) & (New Mexico)
3:30 PM ET off Northwestern at Army --(BYE / Wk5 @ Illinois) & (@ Ball St)
3:30 PM ET +30.5 Akron at Cincinnati --(VMI) & (Thursday: NC St)
4:00 PM ET +26.5 Arkansas State at Virginia Tech --(Cent Ark) & (@ Marshall)
4:00 PM ET +11.5 Tulane at UAB --(@ Duke) & (@ E Carolina)
4:00 PM ET -6 Nevada at San Jose State --(@ Texas Tech) & (NM St)
6:00 PM ET +18.5 Navy at South Carolina --(BYE / Wk5 Air Force) & (Vanderbilt)
6:00 PM ET -4 UCF at Florida International --(Friday: @ BYU) & (La Lafayette)
6:30 PM ET +7 Washington State at San Diego State --(BYE / Wk5 @ Colorado) & (@ Michigan)
7:00 PM ET +36.5 Idaho at Texas A&M --(Fresno St) & (Oklahoma St)
7:00 PM ET +7 Louisville at Kentucky --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Florida)
7:00 PM ET +3 Marshall at Ohio --(Va Tech) & (@ Rutgers)
7:00 PM ET -2 Arizona State at Illinois --(USC) & (Western MIch)
7:00 PM ET +4 Buffalo at Ball State --(UConn) & (Army)
7:00 PM ET +15 Kent State at Kansas State --(S. Alabama) & (@ Miami)
7:00 PM ET -8 Houston at Louisiana Tech --(Ga St) & (@ Miss St)
7:30 PM ET +45 North Texas at Alabama --(Indiana) & (Arkansas)
7:30 PM ET +24.5 Troy at Arkansas --(Mid Tenn St) & (@ Alabama)
7:30 PM ET -1 Ohio State at Miami (FL) --(Colorado) & (Kansas State)
8:00 PM ET -3 Oklahoma at Florida State --(Missouri) & (@ Clemson)
8:00 PM ET +14.5 Syracuse at USC --(Toledo) & (@ Arizona St)
8:00 PM ET -1 UTEP at New Mexico State --(@ S. Florida) & (SJ St)
9:15 PM ET +6 Utah at Brigham Young --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Friday: UCF)
10:00 PM ET -14 Oklahoma State at Tulsa --(@ A&M) & (@ Boise St)
10:00 PM ET -20 Hawaii at UNLV --(Cal Davis) & (S Utah)
10:45 PM ET -10 Stanford at Arizona --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Oregon)

Teams of Choice: (30 Favorites vs 17 Underdogs) & (28 Road Teams vs 19 Home Teams)
* - game played at a neutral location (1-Game played at Mile High Stadium) & (2-Game played at Soldier Field)
 
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20 games? Betting that many games is a sure way to lose money.....why not pick 5 or so and really research them?
 




fufred said:
20 games? Betting that many games is a sure way to lose money.....why not pick 5 or so and really research them?
Click to expand...

fufred, if you read the first paragraph you'll see the 20 picks are LEANS. these are games I am favoring, after my final cut down I may bet a combination of 6-9 games, it depends on how I favor with my early action.
 










Trimmed it to these 15 for now. I will also be on LSU for Thursday and Connecticut for Friday. I'd like to play Boise because all of Toledo's starting LB's may be injured and unable to play, and that line jumped from -17 to -20 for Boise.

I'd like to get:
Temple at +10 or higher
Bowiling Green at -7 or lower
Georgia Tech -14 or lower

Still deciding on adding these games to the list:
Utah @ BYU -6
Syracuse @ USC -14.5
Texas Tech @ New Mexico +20
Oklahoma @ Florida State +3
Hawaii @ UNLV +20


I am not betting all of these games, but I will choose about 6-9 games to bet. These are all updated lines as of Wednesday morning too. I also flipped my pick from WVU to Maryland and Auburn to Clemson.

Saturday, September 17
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
12:00 PM ET +1 West Virginia at Maryland --(LSU) & (Temple)
12:00 PM ET +3 Auburn at Clemson --(FAU) & (Florida St)
12:00 PM ET +3 Pittsburgh at Iowa -- (Notre Dame) & (La Monroe)
2:00 PM ET +29 Louisiana-Monroe at TCU --(@ Iowa) & (Portland St)
3:30 PM ET -16.5 Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois(*2) -(South Dakota) & (Cal Poly)
3:30 PM ET +6 Michigan State at Notre Dame --(Cent Mich) & (Pitt)
3:30 PM ET +9 Tennessee at Florida -- (Buffalo) & (@ Kentucky)
6:00 PM ET +17 Navy at South Carolina --(BYE / Wk5 Air Force) & (Vanderbilt)
6:00 PM ET -5.5 UCF at Florida International --(Friday: @ BYU) & (La Lafayette)
6:30 PM ET +7 Wash State at San Diego State --(BYE / Wk5 @ Colorado) & (@ Michigan)
7:00 PM ET -1.5 Arizona State at Illinois --(USC) & (Western MIch)
7:00 PM ET -7 Houston at Louisiana Tech --(Ga St) & (@ Miss St)
8:00 PM ET +3 UTEP at New Mexico State --(@ S. Florida) & (SJ St)
10:00 PM ET -13.5 Oklahoma State at Tulsa --(@ A&M) & (@ Boise St)
10:45 PM ET -9.5 Stanford at Arizona --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Oregon)

GOOD LUCK TO ALL!
 


The Syracuse one I would stay away from.

Hawaii vs UNLV is a strange one for me. Hawaii can score, but can they stop anyone? UNLV might be a team they can stop...considering they had about 150 yds against Wash St. I just never like Hawaii away from home. That is my only thing with that game, otherwise it's a layup. If the game was in Hawaii and the line was 35 I'd bet Hawaii all day.
 


I just put mine in.

Wisconsin -16.5
Nebraska -16.5
BYU -5
UTEP +3
Texas -3.5
Tx Tech -21
Michigan St +4.5
GA Tech -14
Ball State -5
Auburn +3.5
 


Iowa -3 looks like one of the best bets on the board. Good spot, at home, coming off a bad loss, should be motivated. Pitt has not looked impressive enought to beat a "decent" team on the road.

Scared of that NIU vs. Wisky line. Lot of points and NIU can score some points. Neutral field. Who knows.
 


Hawkeye11en1 said:
The Syracuse one I would stay away from.

Hawaii vs UNLV is a strange one for me. Hawaii can score, but can they stop anyone? UNLV might be a team they can stop...considering they had about 150 yds against Wash St. I just never like Hawaii away from home. That is my only thing with that game, otherwise it's a layup. If the game was in Hawaii and the line was 35 I'd bet Hawaii all day.
Click to expand...

I agree with your Syracuse feeling, but USC should be 0-2 ATS and both games at Home. Plus, I like the Syracuse QB. I should just stay away, but I think they could hang in there.

I also agree with your Hawaii assessment, but that is why i stayed away from last weeks game against Washington. They did keep battling and fighting to stay in the game. Hawaii does not have another legitimate option for another QB and Moniz is the real deal he'll also be forced to play the entire game.
 




I was 4-3 last week on juicy Moneylines netting +515 for bettors.
->the three losses were: Colorado L in OT vs UCLA, Uconn L by 3 @ Vanderbilt, & Indiana L by 3 vs Virginia.

Heres some ML plays to consider, that have plenty of Value:
Tennessee: +290 - This is just for value, I say 3-4 times out of ten Tennessee could win, but will not personally play this

Home Dogs that could win out right:
Florida Int'l: +200
UCLA: +155
Army: +250

Road Teams that are better than their hosts:
Ohio State: +115
Washington State: +165
UTEP: +130
 
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hawkfaninTX said:
Thursday, September 15
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
8:00 PM ET -3 LSU at Mississippi State (@ WVU) & (La Tech)

Friday, September 16
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
8:00 PM ET -17 Boise State at Toledo --(Nevada) & (@ Syracuse)
8:00 PM ET +4.5 Iowa State at Connecticut --(Texas) & (@ Buffalo)

Saturday, September 17
TIME (ET) Away Line / Next Opponents: (AWAY) & (HOME)
12:00 PM ET +1 West Virginia at Maryland --(LSU) & (Temple)
12:00 PM ET -9.5 Penn State at Temple --(E.Michigan) & (Maryland)
12:00 PM ET +28.5 Eastern Michigan at Michigan --(@ PSU) & (San Diego St)
12:00 PM ET +8 Wyoming at Bowling Green -- (@ Nebraska) & (Miami OH)
12:00 PM ET +3.5 Auburn at Clemson --(FAU) & (Florida St)
12:00 PM ET +3.5 Pittsburgh at Iowa -- (Notre Dame) & (La Monroe)
12:00 PM ET +6.5 Central Michigan at Western Michigan --(@ Mich St) & (@ Illinois)
12:21 PM ET -1 Ole Miss at Vanderbilt -- (Georgia) & (@ South Carolina)
12:30 PM ET +14.5 Kansas at Georgia Tech --(BYE / Wk5 Texas Tech) & (North Carolina)
12:30 PM ET +7.5 Duke at Boston College --(Tulane) & (UMass)
1:30 PM ET +8.5 Colorado State vs. Colorado(*1) --(@ Utah St) & (@ Ohio St)
2:00 PM ET +27 Louisiana-Monroe at TCU --(@ Iowa) & (Portland St)
3:30 PM ET -16.5 Wisconsin vs. Northern Illinois(*2) -(South Dakota) & (Cal Poly)
3:30 PM ET +17.5 Washington at Nebraska --(Cal) & (@ Wyoming)
3:30 PM ET +6 Michigan State at Notre Dame --(Cent Mich) & (Pitt)
3:30 PM ET +9 Tennessee at Florida -- (Buffalo) & (@ Kentucky)
3:30 PM ET -3 Texas at UCLA --(Bye / Wk 5 @ ISU) & (@ Oregon St)
3:30 PM ET +3 Miami (OH) at Minnesota --(Miami OH) & (North Dakota St)
3:30 PM ET +10.5 Virginia at North Carolina --(So Miss) & (@ Ga Tech)
3:30 PM ET -19 Texas Tech at New Mexico --(Nevada) & (New Mexico)
3:30 PM ET off Northwestern at Army --(BYE / Wk5 @ Illinois) & (@ Ball St)
3:30 PM ET +30.5 Akron at Cincinnati --(VMI) & (Thursday: NC St)
4:00 PM ET +26.5 Arkansas State at Virginia Tech --(Cent Ark) & (@ Marshall)
4:00 PM ET +11.5 Tulane at UAB --(@ Duke) & (@ E Carolina)
4:00 PM ET -6 Nevada at San Jose State --(@ Texas Tech) & (NM St)
6:00 PM ET +18.5 Navy at South Carolina --(BYE / Wk5 Air Force) & (Vanderbilt)
6:00 PM ET -4 UCF at Florida International --(Friday: @ BYU) & (La Lafayette)
6:30 PM ET +7 Washington State at San Diego State --(BYE / Wk5 @ Colorado) & (@ Michigan)
7:00 PM ET +36.5 Idaho at Texas A&M --(Fresno St) & (Oklahoma St)
7:00 PM ET +7 Louisville at Kentucky --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Florida)
7:00 PM ET +3 Marshall at Ohio --(Va Tech) & (@ Rutgers)
7:00 PM ET -2 Arizona State at Illinois --(USC) & (Western MIch)
7:00 PM ET +4 Buffalo at Ball State --(UConn) & (Army)
7:00 PM ET +15 Kent State at Kansas State --(S. Alabama) & (@ Miami)
7:00 PM ET -8 Houston at Louisiana Tech --(Ga St) & (@ Miss St)
7:30 PM ET +45 North Texas at Alabama --(Indiana) & (Arkansas)
7:30 PM ET +24.5 Troy at Arkansas --(Mid Tenn St) & (@ Alabama)
7:30 PM ET -1 Ohio State at Miami (FL) --(Colorado) & (Kansas State)
8:00 PM ET -3 Oklahoma at Florida State --(Missouri) & (@ Clemson)
8:00 PM ET +14.5 Syracuse at USC --(Toledo) & (@ Arizona St)
8:00 PM ET -1 UTEP at New Mexico State --(@ S. Florida) & (SJ St)
9:15 PM ET +6 Utah at Brigham Young --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Friday: UCF)
10:00 PM ET -14 Oklahoma State at Tulsa --(@ A&M) & (@ Boise St)
10:00 PM ET -20 Hawaii at UNLV --(Cal Davis) & (S Utah)
10:45 PM ET -10 Stanford at Arizona --(BYE / Wk5 ) & (Oregon)

Teams of Choice: (30 Favorites vs 17 Underdogs) & (28 Road Teams vs 19 Home Teams)
* - game played at a neutral location (1-Game played at Mile High Stadium) & (2-Game played at Soldier Field)
Click to expand...

There really arent that many games I feel very comfortable with this weekend.
 








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