Vegas over-under for Iowa 8.5 wins

guffus

guffus

Well-Known Member
Las Vegas has posted the over-Under for regular season wins for Iowa at 8.5. My initial reaction was that seemed low, but let's go through what I believe are the odds of Iowa winning each game and a running total

Miami Ohio - 90% 0.9
Iowa St - 80% 1.70
NDSU - 90% 2.60
@Rut - 80% 3.40
NW - 60% 4.00
@Minn - 60% 4.60
@Pur - 80% 5.40
WISC - 60% 6.00
@PSU - 50% 6.50
Mich - 50% 7.00
@ILL - 80% 7.80
Neb - 60% 8.40

So I came up with an over-under of 8.4 wins. Hmmm, maybe Vegas knows what they are doing.
 


I could see us going into the Nebraska game with 8 wins. That game being the difference.

Start out 4-1 (seems like we always drop one early, except last year)
1-1 (Should be 2-0 here but they are both road games)
1-1 (Between Wisc and @ PSU, should at least split)
2-1 (2 home games and a winnable road game)

That would be 8 wins but I think that it conservative. I think there is a chance they could go 5-0 to start. I think they could win both the next road games.
 






Anybody remember what it was last year?

I feel Iowa goes how their quarterback goes. CJ may just be the guy to keep Iowa overacieving.
 


rschneider said:
Anybody remember what it was last year?

I feel Iowa goes how their quarterback goes. CJ may just be the guy to keep Iowa overacieving.
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8-4 last year without him and KF's seat is red hot at this point. That's why I say after CJ is gone we shall see if there really is a new Kirk. Anything less than 10-2 this year only proves it was a weak schedule. I am hoping for another undefeated season which would then help me feel a lot better about the overall program and maybe that there really is a new sheriff (Kirk) in town. Only played one good team and one quality team last year and lost them both. So I feel it's only fair to still have doubts.
 


it's up to the line play. Can't have a good team without a good O and D line. Right now I say 8 wins so I guess under.
 


I think the non-con will tell us more than some may think. ISU is always...well ISU, especially with a new coach who'll pull out all the stops. How bout crushing them Kirk...just one? Please?

NDSU will be tougher than ISU imho. They will not be intimidated by a D1 stadium (even though Kinnick is significantly more intense than they've seen with their other D1 road trips, Kansas, Minn and ISmoo). I maintain that this was foolish scheduling by Barta.

If we come out with double digit victories in all (which we should and then some), I'm in for 9+ wins, 3 toughest games are all at home.
 


hawkdrummer1 said:
I think the non-con will tell us more than some may think. ISU is always...well ISU, especially with a new coach who'll pull out all the stops. How bout crushing them Kirk...just one? Please?

NDSU will be tougher than ISU imho. They will not be intimidated by a D1 stadium (even though Kinnick is significantly more intense than they've seen with their other D1 road trips, Kansas, Minn and ISmoo). I maintain that this was foolish scheduling by Barta.

If we come out with double digit victories in all (which we should and then some), I'm in for 9+ wins, 3 toughest games are all at home.
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Agree on the NDSU note. They are always REALLY good and is probably the toughest FCS school you can schedule. A W there does nothing for Iowa because they are FCS, but a loss is devastating. To me it's a lose lose scheduling blunder. Would have been better off scheduling another MAC, Sun Belt, or Mountain West school.
 


Vegas is pretty good at doing these. If they are right over 80% of the time they are rolling in it... Last yr they were wrong on Iowa like everyone else. Do I expect Iowa to get 9 wins or better? Yeah I think 9 should be the floor. But I'm not sure how much I'd be willing to put on it...
 


BillSPrestonEsq said:
Agree on the NDSU note. They are always REALLY good and is probably the toughest FCS school you can schedule. A W there does nothing for Iowa because they are FCS, but a loss is devastating. To me it's a lose lose scheduling blunder. Would have been better off scheduling another MAC, Sun Belt, or Mountain West school.
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Yep. Not to mention, you could actually harm your own recruiting (in a small way admittedly, but why give em any opening). NDSU takes quite a few kids out of Minnesota that the Goophs would like. They may nab a kid we want with the promise of earlier playing time.

This is UNI, but without the in-state excuse.
 


hawkdrummer1 said:
Yep. Not to mention, you could actually harm your own recruiting (in a small way admittedly, but why give em any opening). NDSU takes quite a few kids out of Minnesota that the Goophs would like. They may nab a kid we want with the promise of earlier playing time.

This is UNI, but without the in-state excuse.
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How long ago was the NDSU game scheduled? 5 or 6 yrs ago? If it was that long ago then they were just starting to become the power that they currently are. When scheduling these games that far in advance it's almost impossible to predict that they'd go on to win 4 strait trophies like that. They are legit but at least they won't have Wentz...
 


SteveGarvey1 said:
Can't wait to hear what Colin Cowherd has to say on this.
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Who cares. The guy said this was the best Stanford team yet, bashed Iowa all year and then picked Iowa to win the Rose Bowl. That's all-time when it comes to hedging your bets. He then had the audacity to have an 'I told you so' moment after the game - which he picked Iowa to win. He's delusional.
 




Hawkfnntn said:
How long ago was the NDSU game scheduled? 5 or 6 yrs ago? If it was that long ago then they were just starting to become the power that they currently are. When scheduling these games that far in advance it's almost impossible to predict that they'd go on to win 4 strait trophies like that. They are legit but at least they won't have Wentz...
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NDSU has won the Missouri Valley the last five years. In 2009 they were in third. That's a pretty consistent track record.

Miami of Ohio has been consistent too. They have won over 4 games in only 3 of the last 10 years. Consistently bad.
 


AreWeThereYet said:
NDSU has won the Missouri Valley the last five years. In 2009 they were in third. That's a pretty consistent track record.

Miami of Ohio has been consistent too. They have won over 4 games in only 3 of the last 10 years. Consistently bad.
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I wonder if Vandeberg was considering NDSU. Did they have an offer out for him? Because he grey shirted originally to Iowa then I think Iowa gave him his full ride right after his first camp that August. He made a heck of a first impression. He could have been a heck of a player for them catching passes from Wentz a couple yrs too Glad he's a Hawk we've needed him.
 


Here's what Massey says:

Miami 35-7 (97%)
Iowa State 31-20 (78%)
North Dakota State 27-17 (75%)
@ Rutgers 34-24 (75%)
Northwestern 21-15 (65%)
@ Minnesota 27-21 (65%)
@ Purdue 35-21 (81%)
Wisconsin 21-19 (53%)
@ Penn State 24-21 (58%)
Michigan 21-24 (41%)
@ Illinois 28-21 (72%)
Nebraska 31-27 (62%)

Favored in every game except Michigan, and close calls for Wisconsin and Penn State. But my favorite part is NDSU > ISU.
 


Hawkfnntn said:
I wonder if Vandeberg was considering NDSU. Did they have an offer out for him? Because he grey shirted originally to Iowa then I think Iowa gave him his full ride right after his first camp that August. He made a heck of a first impression. He could have been a heck of a player for them catching passes from Wentz a couple yrs too Glad he's a Hawk we've needed him.
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His high school coach said that a lot of local (South Dakota) colleges were recruiting him, but Vandeberg decided on Iowa early after visiting Iowa and Wisconsin. Iowa was the only scholarship offer, and that only after accepting the grayshirt offer.
 
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Keep o-line, CJ, LB's & King healthy and Hawks should be undefeated going up against Michigan. That's the over, right there. Even with slightly tougher schedule, Hawks will have to work to lose more than 2 or 3 games.
 




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