Vegas - Iowa at 8.5

[DexterMorgan]

Could you or somebody post these? My stupid work computer gives me the "access denied".

Alabama
701 Over 10 reg season wins -110
702 Under 10 reg season wins -110
Arizona
703 Over 7 reg season wins -300
704 Under 7 reg season wins +240
Arkansas
705 Over 8½ reg season wins +105
706 Under 8½ reg season wins -125
Auburn
707 Over 8½ reg season wins +100
708 Under 8½ reg season wins -120
Boise State
709 Over 11 reg season wins +140
710 Under 11 reg season wins -160
BYU
711 Over 8 reg season wins -140
712 Under 8 reg season wins +120
California
713 Over 7 reg season wins -170
714 Under 7 reg season wins +150
Clemson
715 Over 7 reg season wins -160
716 Under 7 reg season wins +140
Connecticut
717 Over 8 reg season wins +105
718 Under 8 reg season wins -125
Florida
719 Over 10 reg season wins -130
720 Under 10 reg season wins +110
Florida State
721 Over 8 reg season wins +115
722 Under 8 reg season wins -135
Georgia
723 Over 8½ reg season wins -130
724 Under 8½ reg season wins +110
Georgia Tech
725 Over 7½ reg season wins -170
726 Under 7½ reg season wins +150
Iowa
727 Over 8½ reg season wins -150
728 Under 8½ reg season wins +130
LSU
729 Over 8 reg season wins +100
730 Under 8 reg season wins -120
Miami Florida
731 Over 8½ reg season wins +100
732 Under 8½ reg season wins -120
Michigan
733 Over 7 reg season wins +110
734 Under 7 reg season wins -130
Missouri
735 Over 7½ reg season wins -170
736 Under 7½ reg season wins +150
Nebraska
737 Over 10 reg season wins +125
738 Under 10 reg season wins -145
North Carolina
739 Over reg season wins
740 Under reg season wins
Notre Dame
741 Over 8 reg season wins +100
742 Under 8 reg season wins -130
Ohio State
743 Over 10 reg season wins -240
744 Under 10 reg season wins +200
Oklahoma
745 Over 10 reg season wins -170
746 Under 10 reg season wins +150
Oklahoma State
747 Over 7 reg season wins +240
748 Under 7 reg season wins -300
Oregon
749 Over 9 reg season wins -150
750 Under 9 reg season wins +130
Oregon State
751 Over 7 reg season wins -130
752 Under 7 reg season wins +110
Penn State
753 Over 8½ reg season wins -110
754 Under 8½ reg season wins -110
Pittsburgh
755 Over 8 reg season wins +110
756 Under 8 reg season wins -130
Rutgers
757 Over 7 reg season wins -160
758 Under 7 reg season wins +140
South Carolina
759 Over 7 reg season wins -110
760 Under 7 reg season wins -110
South Florida
761 Over 6½ reg season wins -130
762 Under 6½ reg season wins +110
Tennessee
763 Over 7 reg season wins
764 Under 7 reg season wins
Texas
765 Over 10 reg season wins +100
766 Under 10 reg season wins -120
Texas A&M
767 Over 7 reg season wins +100
768 Under 7 reg season wins -120
TCU
769 Over 10½ reg season wins -220
770 Under 10½ reg season wins +180
Texas Tech
771 Over 8 reg season wins +110
772 Under 8 reg season wins -130
UCLA
773 Over 6 reg season wins +165
774 Under 6 reg season wins -185
Southern Cal
775 Over 9½ reg season wins -160
776 Under 9½ reg season wins +130
Virginia Tech
777 Over 9 reg season wins -170
778 Under 9 reg season wins +150
Washington
779 Over 6½ reg season wins +110
780 Under 6½ reg season wins -130
West Virginia
781 Over 8½ reg season wins -180
782 Under 8½ reg season wins +150
Wisconsin
783 Over 9 reg season wins -120
784 Under 9 reg season wins +100

 

[RocketHawk]

My understanding is that Vegas sets the spread at a point where they think they can get equal money on each side of the wager. When the line moves up or down it means a larger percentage of people are taking one side of the spread. Nebraska has usually been good to bet against because the Nebraska fans would generally always take Nebraska to cover the spread, so if you wait close to game time you would usually gets some extra points to bet against Nebraska compared to betting on them on a Thursday or Friday.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this, which now that I think about it would explain why I suck at gambling.

 

[ThunderHawk]

My understanding is that Vegas sets the spread at a point where they think they can get equal money on each side of the wager. When the line moves up or down it means a larger percentage of people are taking one side of the spread. Nebraska has usually been good to bet against because the Nebraska fans would generally always take Nebraska to cover the spread, so if you wait close to game time you would usually gets some extra points to bet against Nebraska compared to betting on them on a Thursday or Friday.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this, which now that I think about it would explain why I suck at gambling.

No, you are correct.

And that's why the spread isn't static.

 

[LutherHawk]

My understanding is that Vegas sets the spread at a point where they think they can get equal money on each side of the wager. When the line moves up or down it means a larger percentage of people are taking one side of the spread. Nebraska has usually been good to bet against because the Nebraska fans would generally always take Nebraska to cover the spread, so if you wait close to game time you would usually gets some extra points to bet against Nebraska compared to betting on them on a Thursday or Friday.

Of course I could be wrong about all of this, which now that I think about it would explain why I suck at gambling.

This analysis is spot on. However, I would predict that the line moves up a bit for Iowa, as there tends to be some unusually high expectations on the part of Hawk fans (I may be one of them, but I'm not placing any money on it)!

 

[bhawk326]

Also, everyone should realize that a line doesn't necessarily have to move for unequal betting to be going on. Look at the payout disparity already building for Iowa (-150 for the over and +130 for the under). Normal lines start at -110 & -110. This would mean the early money (wise guy money) is on Iowa to win more than 8.5 games. Vegas may move the line to 9 in the near future if a disproportionally large amount of money continues to come in on the over.

Also, take a look at the where the other early money is going to:

Arizona over 7 wins (-300)
Ohio State over 10 wins (-240)
Oklahoma State under 7 wins (-300)
TCU over 10.5 wins (-220)
UCLA under 6 wins (-185)

If you trust Deace's savant like ability to pick college football, I would suggest putting some serious cash on South Carolina Over 7 wins at -110.

 

[KnightHawk9]

This analysis is spot on. However, I would predict that the line moves up a bit for Iowa, as there tends to be some unusually high expectations on the part of Hawk fans (I may be one of them, but I'm not placing any money on it)!

But every fan base would do that. I would guess that the national perception of Iowa would balance it out (probably even more so the other way).

Sorry, I just had to quibble with you since you're from Luther.

 

[troy]

trip to 'zona will be tough
road games in the big ten are tough

 

[djwoody98]

I'd be tempted to bet the under to insure a 9+ win season for the Hawks!

 

[DodgerHawki]

Lions play their share of easy OOC games every year..

Sept. 4: Youngstown State
Sept. 11: at Alabama
Sept. 18: Kent State
Sept. 25: Temple
Oct. 2: at Iowa
Oct. 9: Illinois
Oct. 16: OPEN
Oct. 23: at Minnesota
Oct. 30: Michigan
Nov. 6: Northwestern
Nov. 13: at Ohio State
Nov. 20: at Indiana
Nov. 27: Michigan State

9-3 seems pretty realistic for Penn St. They finally play a tough OOC game

But they are pretty consistent about playing a good opponent every year. Just since 2000, they have played:
Nebraska (twice)
Notre Dame (twice)
BC (twice)
Cincy
Oregon State
Pitt
Miami (FL)
USC
UVA

Not bad overall.