Vegas Bracketology still likes Iowa (2 Seed!)

H

Herky92

Member
Todd Fuhrman just released his latest Vegas Bracketology using the Vegas Oddmakers' power rankings. Surprisingly, Iowa is a 2 seed and the #7 ranked team overall.

Since this is so much higher than any other 'bracketologist' has Iowa, he devoted a paragraph to explain:


Vegas Bracketology 4.0.14 : Outkick The Coverage


“Iowa stinks!†Yes, I’ve heard this discourse from everyone over the last 3 weeks since unveiling the first edition of the bracket. How surprised were people when Iowa was listed as a 1 seed when we published Vegas Bracketology 1.0? Clay Travis, yes that guy, picked up the phone from his hotel room on vacation to make sure I hadn’t compromised the integrity of my article (or lost my mind) with a major slip-up. Clearly this team doesn’t pass the eye test right now and quite frankly they’ve shown the inability to close tight games but the metrics still say they’re very much a top ten caliber team. Why do I trust these numbers so much? They were the exact same statistics predicting Syracuse’s downfall long before the media realized scoring 55 points a night doesn’t make you elite. They’re the same numbers that told us St Louis, ranked #10 in the AP at the time, was being over valued given their power profile and back to back losses later (including one as 14 pt favorites against Duquesne) the process is validated. Oddsmakers don’t have the luxury of over reacting to one result; knee jerk decisions cost sportsbooks heaps of cash. You hear all the time in sports teams are what their record says they are but if you truly believe that, you’ve never tried to make a buck by beating the pointspread.


Remember when reviewing our Vegas seeds it's not going to resemble Joe Lunardi or Jerry Palm’s bracket, IT’S NOT SUPPOSED TO! We’re providing a different way to evaluate teams. When you’re filling out pesky brackets on selection Sunday, you’ll be thankful this article is here for a free consultation.
 
I get that Vegas' is rating teams from a money-making perspective. However, when they look at teams to set a line, they don't care who's better or worse / who wins or loses. They only care to get money from both sides.

Now, obviously, winning and losing sort of go hand in hand with which team might be a "better bet", but I just don't understand what these rankings mean or if they have relevance when, come tourney time, the only thing that matters is winning or losing.
 
It's nice to see that someone has faith in our margin of defeat stats mattering. It's that statistic there that tells me we can make a run in March, especially because our close losses are to good teams. I have more faith in a team like ours who hasn't lost to anyone bad (Minnesota and Indiana road losses aren't really bad too me) and has played anyone close than a team with a slightly better record than ours who has lost to some **** teams. Even from a neutral stand point I'd probably be willing to take Iowa over a lot of traditional power such as Syracuse or Michigan State to make a run because this year's version of those teams aren't trustworthy too me.

You lose to teams like Illinois or Boston College at home, you can lose to anyone. All we've shown is that if we play another good team on our level we are slightly more likely to lose to that team in the final minutes. The thing that frightens me about Iowa right now though is the fact that they can't stop anyone. The last four games teams have shot around 50% against us or better (sometimes much, much better)
 
STILLBUSTER said:
I get that Vegas' is rating teams from a money-making perspective. However, when they look at teams to set a line, they don't care who's better or worse / who wins or loses. They only care to get money from both sides.

Now, obviously, winning and losing sort of go hand in hand with which team might be a "better bet", but I just don't understand what these rankings mean or if they have relevance when, come tourney time, the only thing that matters is winning or losing.
Click to expand...

This is based on who Vegas would favor on a NEUTRAL court. I'm not sure you can really make the case that a non name brand like Iowa is gonna get more action (and therefore a more favorable pt spread) on a neutral court over a Kentucky, Syracuse, UCLA, Michigan, or other "name brand" teams they are ranked in front of.
 
HawkeyeMHA said:
I likey, but no way
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I pretty much read it as we are as dangerous as a 2 seed, not that we will be a 2 seed. I can see that. The thing is though, the talent level of so many teams is so close in college hoops that most teams in the tourney are probably going to be as dangerous as a seed that is higher than what they will receive.
 
Finally a bracket that puts Iowa up where they belong. I was growing tired of all those brackets that had them in way too low of a seed.
 
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