Updated ESPN FPI

These models and computer rankings tend to be a little better later in the year when more stats are in there.

Iowa didn’t play their best game last night. If the pass rush comes on and clean up some other stuff we should be in good shape.
 
So 'lil bro didn't look good in week 1. We've seen that before. When will Iowa fans learn that doesn't matter AT ALL. They will be ready to play vs big brother. They have an extra week of prep and likely spent almost no time prepping for UNI instead focusing on their second opponent. That may be why they looked so bad.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
51.7% That's basically 50/50. Wow...talk about going out on a limb.
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Well the reason that's interesting to me is before this weekend Iowa State was like a 60% or higher chance to win the game. They were also -4.5 favorites. That all has changed
 
mopkins said:
Well the reason that's interesting to me is before this weekend Iowa State was like a 60% or higher chance to win the game. They were also -4.5 favorites. That all has changed
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You're my guy, Mop. But really...it doesn't mean shit. They pulled it out of their azz against an FCS team at home, we won by 20+ against a MAC team. The line moves a little.

Let's just take care of biz against New Jersey St next week. Then take care of biz in Ames and then have a long hot shower to rinse the stink off after spending most of a day there.
 
I actually thought we looked pretty good for a first game. We played vanilla first half, I might of missed it, but with all of those third and long situations Miami had, I don't recall us using the Raider package at all. The WR crew gives me hope that this might be one of the better Ferentz teams.offensively, and I think the defense will come around.
 
hawkdrummer1 said:
You're my guy, Mop. But really...it doesn't mean shit. They pulled it out of their azz against an FCS team at home, we won by 20+ against a MAC team. The line moves a little.

Let's just take care of biz against New Jersey St next week. Then take care of biz in Ames and then have a long hot shower to rinse the stink off after spending most of a day there.
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But ESPN has us winning 9 games!!!
 
FirstDownHawkeyes said:
So 'lil bro didn't look good in week 1. We've seen that before. When will Iowa fans learn that doesn't matter AT ALL. They will be ready to play vs big brother. They have an extra week of prep and likely spent almost no time prepping for UNI instead focusing on their second opponent. That may be why they looked so bad.
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Yeah and on top of that, we need to remember.....UNI is Iowa States......Iowa State
 
FirstDownHawkeyes said:
So 'lil bro didn't look good in week 1. We've seen that before. When will Iowa fans learn that doesn't matter AT ALL. They will be ready to play vs big brother. They have an extra week of prep and likely spent almost no time prepping for UNI instead focusing on their second opponent. That may be why they looked so bad.
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Eh, maybe. It hurts them that their only game experience is that monstrosity. I'd be a bit scared if I were a State fan. Going into Iowa with only that game to learn from is not great.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
Eh, maybe. It hurts them that their only game experience is that monstrosity. I'd be a bit scared if I were a State fan. Going into Iowa with only that game to learn from is not great.
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I disagree. I think some of these early season testers are WAYYYYYY blown out of proportion. I think it gives the coaches a great opportunity to re focus a team, get them grounded again (got to wonder if ISU bought into the pre season hype) and give them an opportunity to tell the team if they don't play hard, and listen to coaching at all times, anyone (including a FCS team) can beat you. I put ZERO stock into a close game vs UNI meaning anything about Iowa St. overall ability to get to 7-8 wins this year.
 
deanvogs said:
I disagree. I think some of these early season testers are WAYYYYYY blown out of proportion. I think it gives the coaches a great opportunity to re focus a team, get them grounded again (got to wonder if ISU bought into the pre season hype) and give them an opportunity to tell the team if they don't play hard, and listen to coaching at all times, anyone (including a FCS team) can beat you. I put ZERO stock into a close game vs UNI meaning anything about Iowa St. overall ability to get to 7-8 wins this year.
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I don't necessarily disagree with your take on the season as a whole, but I do hold that no game to try to iron out the kinks before the Hawks storm into Lames is a net negative for them. They may still get 6-7 wins in the Big 12 conference, just look at Oklahoma's struggles against Houston last night. That conference is weak as hell. But there's no experience like playing live football against a real team.

Which do you think better prepares a team coming off a very ugly win with no other meaningful play this season, before playing what is at least the third best team you will play all season? Two weeks of practices, or a week of a half of practice with an actual contest in the middle? I'll take the latter. Had ISU come out, rolled past the Panthers, playing as a team and seeing what needs to be refined, as the Hawks did, the bye might be a benefit. That is not the case here. They played as individuals. How you bring a team together more effective in practice than on the field when you couldn't in the entirety of summer practices is beyond me.
 
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ISU is, and has been all along, vastly overrated.

1. No one is going to be surprised by Brock Purdy this year. Lots of film.

2. They have no one who even comes close to replacing Butler and Montgomery.

Hawks win in Ames by 15+
 
Brock Purdy recovering that fumble kept everything in order for ISU. As @deanvogs stated it allows ISU to re-focus. You can’t read too much into that game.
 
Alright folks, after rewatching a condensed game of ISU, I'm doubling down on what I've said in this thread. They played like shit. If Iowa's defensive line gets half as much pressure on Purdy as UNI's did, he won't survive the first half. Iowa State's dink and dunk is an absolute dream for Iowa to defend. Some are saying the Purdy didn't play that bad, and that Iowa State as a whole didn't perform poorly, but they do not match up well against Iowa's strengths at all. Some say they didn't attack downfield because they were hiding the playbook, but I find that highly suspect. Without Montgomery and Butler, Purdy is incredibly pedestrian. His performance looks good on paper, but those are inflated by wide open receivers 5-15 yards downfield all game. Look for Iowa to get pressure, and possibly a couple of picks in two weeks. In week one, Stanley was the better quarterback, by a lot.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
Alright folks, after rewatching a condensed game of ISU, I'm doubling down on what I've said in this thread. They played like shit. If Iowa's defensive line gets half as much pressure on Purdy as UNI's did, he won't survive the first half. Iowa State's dink and dunk is an absolute dream for Iowa to defend. Some are saying the Purdy didn't play that bad, and that Iowa State as a whole didn't perform poorly, but they do not match up well against Iowa's strengths at all. Some say they didn't attack downfield because they were hiding the playbook, but I find that highly suspect. Without Montgomery and Butler, Purdy is incredibly pedestrian. His performance looks good on paper, but those are inflated by wide open receivers 5-15 yards downfield all game. Look for Iowa to get pressure, and possibly a couple of picks in two weeks. In week one, Stanley was the better quarterback, by a lot.
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After watching ISU as well I agree with some of the defenciences that you mentioned. Without Butler and with Purdy's lack of arm strength they are most definitely a dink and dunk team. I think this plays into Iowa's D's strategy for sure. I just meant that a close call against UNI in week 1 means little. They still ended up winning and that is all that matters.
 
BrianFerentzForPresident said:
Eh, maybe. It hurts them that their only game experience is that monstrosity. I'd be a bit scared if I were a State fan. Going into Iowa with only that game to learn from is not great.
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I have NOT been on any Cyclone boards. But, I can say, with reasonable certainty, that the phrase, "UNI would KILL Miami/OH!" shows up as a theme.
 
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