Updated Bracketology

Yep, last night's game didn't really change anything other than the fact that Iowa now is much more likely to remain in the bubble picture going into the BTT, provided it doesn't lay an egg on Senior Day. We knew we had to have last night's game, and we got it. Step #1 complete, now on to step #2.

Get to 20-11 (9-9) going into the BTT, and it should be a highly anticipated tournament for us Hawk fans. First time in quite a while that we've realistically had something to cheer for in that tournament.
 
eveningnewsteam said:
Just win baby
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Iowa's tournament has already started... two more wins gets us to our play-in game in the BTT..

Maybe my blinders are on, but even at 21-11 going into a second BTT game, we could be getting close to a coin-flip bubble team depending on what happens to other bubble teams and how high ISU's (and even UNI) RPI rises. If Iowa can have their RPI in the high 60's after the next two games, what metric would suggest we should be out of the tourney?
We'd be potentially tied for 6th in B10, solid Pomeroy, Sagarin, BPI and an RPI that doesn't totally kill us, and we'd be 7-3 in our last 10.
 
SuperNovaHawk said:
Iowa's tournament has already started... two more wins gets us to our play-in game in the BTT..

Maybe my blinders are on, but even at 21-11 going into a second BTT game, we could be getting close to a coin-flip bubble team depending on what happens to other bubble teams and how high ISU's (and even UNI) RPI rises. If Iowa can have their RPI in the high 60's after the next two games, what metric would suggest we should be out of the tourney?
We'd be potentially tied for 6th in B10, solid Pomeroy, Sagarin, BPI and an RPI that doesn't totally kill us, and we'd be 7-3 in our last 10.
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Your assessment is correct. The other bubble teams have very similar resumes to Iowa, in some cases much worse. Iowa has now played 11 games against Top 50 RPI teams (with 3 wins) and another win over a team (ISU) just outside the Top 50.

Iowa has a very unique profile. Basically only 1.5 games this year where Iowa wasn't competitive, both on the road (at Michigan and at Va. Tech). And the Va.Tech game was within 3 points with 12 minutes to go. Gotta win the next 2 for any of that to matter, however.
 
Here are the 2 that had Iowa in yesterday before the games:

The Amateur Bracketologist

I feel good knowing a bracketologist named amateur thinks Iowa is in. :D

The other one is a blogger (named Jeff), confusing if he has Iowa in or out. It appears he just lumps a bunch of teams together as "bubble teams" and gives 9 bids to 15 teams.

Basketball Predictions

He does have a nice write up on the game last night and thinks Iowa has a chance winning the next 2.
 
DodgerHawki said:
Your assessment is correct. The other bubble teams have very similar resumes to Iowa, in some cases much worse. Iowa has now played 11 games against Top 50 RPI teams (with 3 wins) and another win over a team (ISU) just outside the Top 50.

Iowa has a very unique profile. Basically only 1.5 games this year where Iowa wasn't competitive, both on the road (at Michigan and at Va. Tech). And the Va.Tech game was within 3 points with 12 minutes to go. Gotta win the next 2 for any of that to matter, however.
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I think getting ISU into the top 50 would be key... playing 12 games against top 50 and going 4-8 looks better than playing 11 and going 3-8.
 
SuperNovaHawk said:
I think getting ISU into the top 50 would be key... playing 12 games against top 50 and going 4-8 looks better than playing 11 and going 3-8.
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IF ISU wins tonight, then cheer them on the rest of the way, and vice versa. Personally, I want them to lose tonight, as I think that drops them down to Iowa's bubble level and we own the head to head win.
 
jozzer said:
IF ISU wins tonight, then cheer them on the rest of the way, and vice versa. Personally, I want them to lose tonight, as I think that drops them down to Iowa's bubble level and we own the head to head win.
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I want them to lose, but if they win:
their RPI would solidly be above 50, then losing the first B12 tourny game but their RPI stays above 50. That would be the perfect scenario IMO. Keeps them on the bubble and gives us a RPI top 50 win
 
Iowa needs the RPI boost more than anything, we need to root for ISU to win tonight. If Iowa State wins tonight Iowa will probably get a 2/3 spot bump in RPI. Also cheer for a Nebraska upset over Minnesota tonight, this game is at Nebraska and Minnesota is horrible on the road. A Nebraska win puts them into the top 100 of the RPI and then beating them (potentially twice) would carry more weight. Not only that but it puts Iowa into a 3 way tie for 6th place in the B1G along with Illinois. Not sure exactly how the tie breakers work but based on Iowa 1-0 vs Illinois and 1-1 vs Minnesota I would think Iowa owns the tie breaker.

I know I sound like a broken record but if Iowa can get their RPI below 70 I think they got a chance.
 
ssckelley said:
Iowa needs the RPI boost more than anything, we need to root for ISU to win tonight. If Iowa State wins tonight Iowa will probably get a 2/3 spot bump in RPI. Also cheer for a Nebraska upset over Minnesota tonight, this game is at Nebraska and Minnesota is horrible on the road. A Nebraska win puts them into the top 100 of the RPI and then beating them (potentially twice) would carry more weight. Not only that but it puts Iowa into a 3 way tie for 6th place in the B1G along with Illinois. Not sure exactly how the tie breakers work but based on Iowa 1-0 vs Illinois and 1-1 vs Minnesota I would think Iowa owns the tie breaker.

I know I sound like a broken record but if Iowa can get their RPI below 70 I think they got a chance.
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Here is the problem with this. Ultimately there will be 12 teams on the board that we call the bubble. These 12 teams will be fighting for roughly 6-8 spots. If ISU wins out, those 6-8 spots suddenly become 5-7 spots. Throw in 1 or 2 conference Tournament upset, and suddenly its down to 3-5 spots.
 
If Iowa cannot win a second round match-up in the BTT, then who thinks they can win a neutral site game in the NCAA? Seriously.

This is what makes all this bubble talk moot. Even if all the planets aligned perfectly and Iowa only had to win one game in the BTT to get to the dance, they would have to have a complete psychic change in a few days not to be returning home immediately.

Basically, if they have grown enough during the season to get over the hump at a neutral site in the BTT, then on to the dance. If not, home games in the NIT are a far better option.
 
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