JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
The new College Football Playoff poll was released on Tuesday night and the Hawkeyes stayed put at 4th. Michigan State was also in the same position at 5th, with Ohio State 6th.
As recently as Tuesday evening, in my Instant Reaction podcast, I was of a mind that Ohio State was still within shouting distance of the Playoff. At #6, I guess they technically are. However after a lengthy phone discussion, things have taken on more clarity for me.
I’ll not name the source or even hint at it, other than to say I trust them, they are very familiar with the process and I know they know what they are talking about. This is someone who knows how the sausage is made and I heard things from their mouth, not through a friend of a friend. I reached out to this person recently just to get some bird’s eye clarifications and they got around to calling me back on Tuesday night.
Let’s dive in.
PLAYOFF GEOGRAPHIC POSITIONING: We all know that if Iowa wins on Saturday, they are in. As it relates to Iowa’s CFP opponent, I feel comfortable in saying that if Clemson and Alabama win, Iowa would jump Oklahoma in the standings and would be ranked #3. This would happen for two reasons…and there always the right reasons and the REAL reasons.
Iowa jumping to #3 would have plenty of political cover. They would have just beaten #5 Michigan State, they would be 13-0 and moving them ahead of 11-1 Oklahoma would not create any political issues and very little public opinion issues. That’s the ‘right’ reason.
The real reason conveniently dovetails with the right reason; it would be to avoid Oklahoma playing so close to home. Here are the driving distances to the CFP bowls:
Iowa City to Dallas: 12.5 hours
Iowa City to Miami: 22 hours
Tuscaloosa to Dallas: 8.5 hours
Tuscaloosa to Miami: 12 hours
Clemson to Miami: 11.5 hours
Clemson to Dallas: 13.5 hours
Norman to Dallas: 3 hours
All along, I’ve felt that would not be a bad thing, to help ensure good attendance. But after my Tuesday conversation, I am no longer of that opinion and believe the opposite to be true; the committee will try to avoid something like that. So with Clemson #1, Alabama #2, Iowa #3 and Oklahoma #4, the Sooners would face Clemson in Miami, which is more palatable to the committee’s desire to take away any sort of ‘near’ home field advantage. This would pit Iowa against the Crimson Tide, which is a matchup I would prefer to see.
That’s not to say I wouldn’t mind seeing Iowa play Clemson; I think that would be the best matchup for the Hawkeyes to win and perhaps that could happen in Dallas. Bottom line is I believe things will be maneuvered to get Oklahoma to Miami, or rather, to keep Oklahoma out of Dallas.
The Top seed can play closer to home, but it seems highly unlikely that Oklahoma would be the Top Seed, so I do not expect to see them in Dallas.
There is a part of me that would love to see Iowa play Alabama and be the lumberjack to swing the final blow and cut down the SEC Myth.
TIMING OF THE CFP GAMES: As of right now, the game times for The Orange and The Cotton have not been set. Both of this year’s CFP games will be played on New Years Eve. One will be earlier and the other will be in prime time. My source believes ESPN has input as to which game is played early and which game is played in prime time.
IF IOWA WINS & CLEMSON LOSES: That would mean North Carolina would be the ACC Champs, winners of 12 in a row and in position to move up and jump into the Top Four. I am a bit surprised they were not ranked higher in this week’s poll than their #10 spot, as jumping into the four spot with a hypothetical win over Clemson seems like a lot. But if they did beat Clemson, they will have beaten the #1 ranked team in the nation. I don’t think that would seem as outrageous as TCU dropping from three to six after beating Iowa State 55-3, which is what happened in the final week last year.
But what if Stanford beat USC, too? Stanford has a better resume than Ohio Sate in nearly every way except they have two losses to just one for Ohio State. But Stanford has played a much tougher schedule than Ohio State and if they beat USC, they will also have a conference title.
The person I spoke with advised me to not discount that conference championship. I got the feeling that the CFP Committee/System would not want to leave out a conference champion who could make a case, this early in the Playoff era.
This is a big shift in opinion for me, but this stuff is fluid and I had not had the phone conversation prior to tonight.
So I am no longer of the opinion that Ohio State will get into The Playoff with a Clemson loss. I think the only way that happens is if Clemson, Alabama and Stanford ALL lose…a pure chaos scenario.
THE ROSE BOWL: That leads us to The Rose Bowl, which is still the bowl with the most power and autonomy.
The five other New Years Six bowl games do not have much (if any) pull or say in this new system. Sure, there will be conversations, but I get the sense they are more of the ‘placating’ variety.
Even the Rose has likely been neutered, as the Big Ten and Pac 12 athletic directors have given them fairly clear marching orders; take the highest ranked teams available to you from both leagues.
If Iowa beats Michigan State, the Spartans would be 11-2, but would have a win at Columbus. If Michigan State beats Iowa, the Hawkeyes would be 12-1 with a West Division title.
While I do think the Rose will take the highest rated team, as long as the Big Ten title game isn’t a boat race, I ‘could’ see the loser of the Big Ten title game staying AHEAD of Ohio State in the final poll. I am not saying that ‘will’ happen, but I am saying that possibility doesn’t sound crazy to me after my phone conversation.
THE PEACH AND FIESTA: If Iowa loses to Michigan State and if Ohio State is ranked higher than the Hawkeyes and the Rose takes the Buckeyes, the Hawkeyes would go to either the Peach or Fiesta.
I have had a lot of people asking me about the process involved with this scenario, and this was the key reason I reached out to my source, as I felt this person could help me understand the nuances of this new era.
Before the BCS, the bowl committees had a great deal of power and sway and they chose the teams who came to their cities and bowl games. In the BCS era, they still had some power and sway, but more and more bowls began to affiliate with conferences and their ‘field of selection’ was narrowed. The Big Ten had slotting for their bowls based loosely on conference standings, where the SEC would place teams in bowls to give them the best chance to win the games…but the bowls would have some input in that as well.
But now, as it pertains to the New Years Six bowls (sans the Rose), they really don’t have much (if any) input.
Sure, these bowl games still have selection committees, but these positions are now ceremonial.
So while the Fiesta and Peach Bowl committees will have some discussions with The Playoff committee along the way, the discussions will be inconsequential.
Say the Fiesta would really, really want Iowa in their bowl game once the teams available to them become clear? There isn’t anything they can do about it. There isn’t any alternating choice between the Fiesta or the Peach; the CFP committee will put together the match ups.
That said, my source believes ESPN has some influence here. My source feels ESPN will voice their opinions on possible match ups that would create the best TV ratings and, at the least, their opinions are heard and considered.
Perhaps that oftentimes aligns with the CFP committee’s goal of creating the most compelling New Years Six match ups. This is something to consider, but the bottom line is there is no ‘process’ for selection in this year’s Fiesta and Peach bowls. The bowls will not alternative selections. There is no selection process for them at all.
If Iowa does lose on Saturday night, I’d love to be able to tell you which of the Peach, Rose or Fiesta Iowa would take part in, but there is really no methodology for knowing this like there used to be.
We would all be gathered around televisions, likely learning about it at the same time.
Here’s to hoping Iowa beats Michigan State, so that the drama is a lot more positive and predictable, as there would be just two destination options.
THE ULTIMATE CHAOS SCENARIO: I was alerted to another possibility late Tuesday night. There is a chance Iowa (or another team in the Top 11) could be left out of the New Years Six. This has to do with replacement teams in bowl games.
Replacement picks can be outside of the Top 11. What is a replacement pick?
The Rose gets the Big Ten Champion & Pac 12 Champion. The Sugar gets the SEC Champion and Big 12 Champion, and so on…the conference tie ins the bowl have.
This gets complicated, but here is a scenario how Iowa could get left out of a New Years Six Bowl game:
-Michigan State beats Iowa
-North Carolina beats Clemson
-Stanford moves ahead of Ohio State and goes into the Top Four
-Ohio State is ranked ahead of Iowa in the final poll
If those things happened, there would likely be no new teams in the Top 12, just a little reshuffling inside the Top 12. But chaos could ensue.
The Sugar Bowl gets replacement picks from the SEC and Big 12. These would be Ole Miss and Baylor, who are ranked #13 and #12 right now, respectively. The Rose gets replacement selections for its game, and we already have Ohio State as ranking ahead of Iowa for this scenario and they would likely select Oregon as their Pac 12 replacement pick; Oregon is ranked #16.
North Carolina gets the automatic bid from the ACC and the Houston v Temple winner is in from the Group of Five.
This would leave two open New Years Six slots with these three teams vying for them: Iowa, Clemson, Notre Dame.
Someone gets left out.
All this said, I just don’t believe that will happen, but I at least wanted to share the possibility.
(H/T to Brendan Stiles and @DthruF for reminding me of the replacement selection angles)
As recently as Tuesday evening, in my Instant Reaction podcast, I was of a mind that Ohio State was still within shouting distance of the Playoff. At #6, I guess they technically are. However after a lengthy phone discussion, things have taken on more clarity for me.
I’ll not name the source or even hint at it, other than to say I trust them, they are very familiar with the process and I know they know what they are talking about. This is someone who knows how the sausage is made and I heard things from their mouth, not through a friend of a friend. I reached out to this person recently just to get some bird’s eye clarifications and they got around to calling me back on Tuesday night.
Let’s dive in.
PLAYOFF GEOGRAPHIC POSITIONING: We all know that if Iowa wins on Saturday, they are in. As it relates to Iowa’s CFP opponent, I feel comfortable in saying that if Clemson and Alabama win, Iowa would jump Oklahoma in the standings and would be ranked #3. This would happen for two reasons…and there always the right reasons and the REAL reasons.
Iowa jumping to #3 would have plenty of political cover. They would have just beaten #5 Michigan State, they would be 13-0 and moving them ahead of 11-1 Oklahoma would not create any political issues and very little public opinion issues. That’s the ‘right’ reason.
The real reason conveniently dovetails with the right reason; it would be to avoid Oklahoma playing so close to home. Here are the driving distances to the CFP bowls:
Iowa City to Dallas: 12.5 hours
Iowa City to Miami: 22 hours
Tuscaloosa to Dallas: 8.5 hours
Tuscaloosa to Miami: 12 hours
Clemson to Miami: 11.5 hours
Clemson to Dallas: 13.5 hours
Norman to Dallas: 3 hours
All along, I’ve felt that would not be a bad thing, to help ensure good attendance. But after my Tuesday conversation, I am no longer of that opinion and believe the opposite to be true; the committee will try to avoid something like that. So with Clemson #1, Alabama #2, Iowa #3 and Oklahoma #4, the Sooners would face Clemson in Miami, which is more palatable to the committee’s desire to take away any sort of ‘near’ home field advantage. This would pit Iowa against the Crimson Tide, which is a matchup I would prefer to see.
That’s not to say I wouldn’t mind seeing Iowa play Clemson; I think that would be the best matchup for the Hawkeyes to win and perhaps that could happen in Dallas. Bottom line is I believe things will be maneuvered to get Oklahoma to Miami, or rather, to keep Oklahoma out of Dallas.
The Top seed can play closer to home, but it seems highly unlikely that Oklahoma would be the Top Seed, so I do not expect to see them in Dallas.
There is a part of me that would love to see Iowa play Alabama and be the lumberjack to swing the final blow and cut down the SEC Myth.
TIMING OF THE CFP GAMES: As of right now, the game times for The Orange and The Cotton have not been set. Both of this year’s CFP games will be played on New Years Eve. One will be earlier and the other will be in prime time. My source believes ESPN has input as to which game is played early and which game is played in prime time.
IF IOWA WINS & CLEMSON LOSES: That would mean North Carolina would be the ACC Champs, winners of 12 in a row and in position to move up and jump into the Top Four. I am a bit surprised they were not ranked higher in this week’s poll than their #10 spot, as jumping into the four spot with a hypothetical win over Clemson seems like a lot. But if they did beat Clemson, they will have beaten the #1 ranked team in the nation. I don’t think that would seem as outrageous as TCU dropping from three to six after beating Iowa State 55-3, which is what happened in the final week last year.
But what if Stanford beat USC, too? Stanford has a better resume than Ohio Sate in nearly every way except they have two losses to just one for Ohio State. But Stanford has played a much tougher schedule than Ohio State and if they beat USC, they will also have a conference title.
The person I spoke with advised me to not discount that conference championship. I got the feeling that the CFP Committee/System would not want to leave out a conference champion who could make a case, this early in the Playoff era.
This is a big shift in opinion for me, but this stuff is fluid and I had not had the phone conversation prior to tonight.
So I am no longer of the opinion that Ohio State will get into The Playoff with a Clemson loss. I think the only way that happens is if Clemson, Alabama and Stanford ALL lose…a pure chaos scenario.
THE ROSE BOWL: That leads us to The Rose Bowl, which is still the bowl with the most power and autonomy.
The five other New Years Six bowl games do not have much (if any) pull or say in this new system. Sure, there will be conversations, but I get the sense they are more of the ‘placating’ variety.
Even the Rose has likely been neutered, as the Big Ten and Pac 12 athletic directors have given them fairly clear marching orders; take the highest ranked teams available to you from both leagues.
If Iowa beats Michigan State, the Spartans would be 11-2, but would have a win at Columbus. If Michigan State beats Iowa, the Hawkeyes would be 12-1 with a West Division title.
While I do think the Rose will take the highest rated team, as long as the Big Ten title game isn’t a boat race, I ‘could’ see the loser of the Big Ten title game staying AHEAD of Ohio State in the final poll. I am not saying that ‘will’ happen, but I am saying that possibility doesn’t sound crazy to me after my phone conversation.
THE PEACH AND FIESTA: If Iowa loses to Michigan State and if Ohio State is ranked higher than the Hawkeyes and the Rose takes the Buckeyes, the Hawkeyes would go to either the Peach or Fiesta.
I have had a lot of people asking me about the process involved with this scenario, and this was the key reason I reached out to my source, as I felt this person could help me understand the nuances of this new era.
Before the BCS, the bowl committees had a great deal of power and sway and they chose the teams who came to their cities and bowl games. In the BCS era, they still had some power and sway, but more and more bowls began to affiliate with conferences and their ‘field of selection’ was narrowed. The Big Ten had slotting for their bowls based loosely on conference standings, where the SEC would place teams in bowls to give them the best chance to win the games…but the bowls would have some input in that as well.
But now, as it pertains to the New Years Six bowls (sans the Rose), they really don’t have much (if any) input.
Sure, these bowl games still have selection committees, but these positions are now ceremonial.
So while the Fiesta and Peach Bowl committees will have some discussions with The Playoff committee along the way, the discussions will be inconsequential.
Say the Fiesta would really, really want Iowa in their bowl game once the teams available to them become clear? There isn’t anything they can do about it. There isn’t any alternating choice between the Fiesta or the Peach; the CFP committee will put together the match ups.
That said, my source believes ESPN has some influence here. My source feels ESPN will voice their opinions on possible match ups that would create the best TV ratings and, at the least, their opinions are heard and considered.
Perhaps that oftentimes aligns with the CFP committee’s goal of creating the most compelling New Years Six match ups. This is something to consider, but the bottom line is there is no ‘process’ for selection in this year’s Fiesta and Peach bowls. The bowls will not alternative selections. There is no selection process for them at all.
If Iowa does lose on Saturday night, I’d love to be able to tell you which of the Peach, Rose or Fiesta Iowa would take part in, but there is really no methodology for knowing this like there used to be.
We would all be gathered around televisions, likely learning about it at the same time.
Here’s to hoping Iowa beats Michigan State, so that the drama is a lot more positive and predictable, as there would be just two destination options.
THE ULTIMATE CHAOS SCENARIO: I was alerted to another possibility late Tuesday night. There is a chance Iowa (or another team in the Top 11) could be left out of the New Years Six. This has to do with replacement teams in bowl games.
Replacement picks can be outside of the Top 11. What is a replacement pick?
The Rose gets the Big Ten Champion & Pac 12 Champion. The Sugar gets the SEC Champion and Big 12 Champion, and so on…the conference tie ins the bowl have.
This gets complicated, but here is a scenario how Iowa could get left out of a New Years Six Bowl game:
-Michigan State beats Iowa
-North Carolina beats Clemson
-Stanford moves ahead of Ohio State and goes into the Top Four
-Ohio State is ranked ahead of Iowa in the final poll
If those things happened, there would likely be no new teams in the Top 12, just a little reshuffling inside the Top 12. But chaos could ensue.
The Sugar Bowl gets replacement picks from the SEC and Big 12. These would be Ole Miss and Baylor, who are ranked #13 and #12 right now, respectively. The Rose gets replacement selections for its game, and we already have Ohio State as ranking ahead of Iowa for this scenario and they would likely select Oregon as their Pac 12 replacement pick; Oregon is ranked #16.
North Carolina gets the automatic bid from the ACC and the Houston v Temple winner is in from the Group of Five.
This would leave two open New Years Six slots with these three teams vying for them: Iowa, Clemson, Notre Dame.
Someone gets left out.
All this said, I just don’t believe that will happen, but I at least wanted to share the possibility.
(H/T to Brendan Stiles and @DthruF for reminding me of the replacement selection angles)
