99topdawg
Well-Known Member
Depauw University did a study that took nearly every situation into consideration at the end of the game up 3. They found that not fouling would result in a 19% chance they would tie the game on a 3 (part of that low number was that they don't get a shot off, etc.).
By fouling before the shot, a team has 95% chance to win.
There are 2 ways a team could lose. 1) A team has a 0.1% chance of fouling on a made 3 and losing. 2) A team has a 0.008% chance of losing by fouling before the shot, having a team make the first FT, miss the 2nd FT, rebound, kick it out for 3 and make it.
There are a lot of scenarios that weren't figured, such as kicking out the missed FT and getting fouled on a 3 or fouling on a made 3 while boxing out under the basket, etc.
I've always said foul early, what say you?
By fouling before the shot, a team has 95% chance to win.
There are 2 ways a team could lose. 1) A team has a 0.1% chance of fouling on a made 3 and losing. 2) A team has a 0.008% chance of losing by fouling before the shot, having a team make the first FT, miss the 2nd FT, rebound, kick it out for 3 and make it.
There are a lot of scenarios that weren't figured, such as kicking out the missed FT and getting fouled on a 3 or fouling on a made 3 while boxing out under the basket, etc.
I've always said foul early, what say you?
