My thoughts on CTE?
1) There are differing degrees of susceptibility...that has been shown theoretically and empirically. There's a gradient, or curve, or however you want to describe it. There is a reason John Randle is sharp as a tack when you listen to him after all those Pro Bowl level years of hits, and a guy like Tyler Sash succumbs after a much shorter and less violent career. I mention that because the level of risk isn't the same for everyone.
2) There are (in my feeble-minded opinion) three different potential "demographics" when it comes to CTE occurrence. One is the group that seems to be very resistant to it. There are guys who have taken tons of collisions over long careers and show very little problems. The second are those who seem to be very susceptible like Sash, Belcher, Seau, etc. The third one (and the most important I believe), are the catastrophic one-time hits that will have an effect on anyone regardless of how well they absorb shots to the head. Hits like the ones Burfict put on defenseless players, and shots like Ben Askeren took from Masvidal last year. Askeren said in an interview a couple weeks after that fight that he didn't rememebr the 20 minutes leading up to the fight, being in the octogon, the ride to and from the hospital, and for about a week he had short term memory issues that got better. That knee to the head did permanent damage, period. If you aren't familiar with the situation google "Askeren Masvidal" and you'll see the video.
So...
Because I think there are varying levels of risk, the emphasis needs to be on finding the science that lets us identify people at a high risk before they start playing football. We need to identify the genetics that make someone a Bernie Kosar instead of a John Randle all other things equal. Does that eliminate all risk? No. There are always going to be devestating single impacts, and there will always be guys who because of playing style or bad luck rack up 6, 7, 8 concussions.
But like everything, I don't think the answer is, "Football is too dangerous, shut it all down right now," and I also don't think the answer is, "Everyone knows the risks, if you get dementia that's on you." My son had his first 8th grade FB game last night as a matter of fact. I've told him that any concussions and he's done for that year. Additional ones and we're going to start having convo about not playing anymore. I also think that there is much, much more attention being paid to the potential for head injuries. For instance, in junior high in Iowa kids have to take baseline cognitive tests before the season starts, which they have to match after a concussion to be allowed to play. We have had a few kids in my town over the past few years who have taken a couple weeks to pass it. That right there tells me that we're doing a better job of preventing kids from going back too soon. It's a scientific fact that you are more susceptible to additional damage the closer you are to the original injury. When I played football if you could stand up and not puke you were considered okay. Coming out of a game was also mocked and considered a sign of weakness. I think we're doing a better job changing both of those things.
It also helps my decision process to know that my son isn't good enough to play college football. He's got 4 more years left after this and that's it. He doesn't have 4 years of HS, 4 years of college ball, and 6 years of NFL football in front of him, each one increasing in speed, size and strength.
There's risk, and you have to manage it rationally (not emotionally). I mentioned him not being a college level FB player...I do however feel that he has a realistic chance of playing baseball after high school. At what level I don't know...But I do know that there's plenty of chance that he could take a 90 mph pitch to the face or a 120 mph line drive to the temple as a pitcher and that would do potentially as much damage as a career of football hits. But I figure out in my rational mind that statistically the chances are low and I feel comfortable with him playing. I could have someone fall asleep in oncoming traffic tonight and get killed coming home from work, but I still go to work 210 days a year.
Use science and information to intelligently assess risk. Not emotion or peer pressure. That's my take on CTE. There are no zero risk activities of any sort in this world. None.
