Trump supporters, how do you square this?


High cost of living prices perhaps are a bit bothersome and responsible

Wages do not reflect the rising prices

Owning a home these days is beyond the reach of the average person

Of course, the billionaires are laughing all the way to the bank and beyond

Scrooge Donald Duck GIF - Scrooge Donald Duck Swimming In Money ...
 

We Are Entering the $40 for a Six-Pack of Corona Era of American History​


The threatened tariffs would affect large swaths of U.S. trade. Goods valued at more than $1.5 trillion move among the three North American nations, while the United States and China exchange about $600 billion worth. U.S. imports from Mexico include cars, machinery, electrical equipment, food and beer. Canada supplies oil and gas, machinery and parts and much else. The United States relies on China for electronics, particularly phones, along with toys, furniture and plastics. Economists warn that tariffs could affect grocery prices, which were a key election issue. Mexico supplied more than half of U.S. fresh fruit imports in 2022, according to the Agriculture Department.

The above is from my favorite political writer: Charles P Pierce

Drug Cartels will Not be affected by proposed Taffifs, but the cost of living will rise for certain

There will still be plenty of Fentanyl go around
 
Regarding the estate tax, I would say that the issue is a bit more nuanced than a simple tax or no tax.

IMHO, the "Estate" should include the deceased and any nuclear family components, therefore (unless otherwise laid out in the will), moneys that go to spouse and/or children should be treated as if they were going to the deceased before he/she died. Much like liquidating an LLC, any "gains" should be taxed at the applicable capital gains rate, but money that already has been taxed should be left alone.

Same with giving your spouse a gift. IIRC, the IRS stipulates that a one-time gift up to a certain amount is not considered "income," but outside of that, any money or gifts above a certain value are considered taxable income. This is classic government overreach and over-taxation, and flies directly in the face of the "community property" definitions as applied to divorce settlements ("What's mine is yours...").

Regarding tariffs, as with the IRS and taxes, I'm certainly no expert, but I find the whole debate interesting.

Economists have a tendency to crunch numbers without taking into account variables - for example, cutting taxes results in "X" amount of lost revenue compared to "Y" amount of spending, resulting in a net financial impact.

Historically, however, administrations that cut taxes often triggered increased government revenue due to an expanding tax base (diminished tax burdens resulting in increased job growth and increased individual spending - ergo, increased number of people paying taxes and increased gains from sales taxes). Calculating lost revenue strictly by Xs and Os can be misleading. The Kennedy and Reagan administrations both cut income taxes, and tax revenues went up, not down. The problem is that our elected officials can't resist the temptation to concomitantly increase spending as well...

Yes, certainly in the short term, it would appear that tariffs would have a significant negative impact on consumer prices, essentially acting as a "tax." However, what if a short-term pain turns into a long-term gain? Both China and Mexico have a lot to lose if they play hardball and don't acquiesce. If tariffs force countries to stop currency manipulation, techo theft, undercutting prices by utilizing slave labor, etc., the end result of leveraging those tariffs could very well pay off big in the future, especially for an American labor force that isn't given a level playing field.

Also, we need to keep in mind that many of the goods (not all certainly) can be obtained at least temporarily from other countries with fairer trade practices, i.e., Taiwan, Korea, The Netherlands, Singapore and the Norwegian countries. Ramping up trade agreements with other countries, while working on regaining energy independence would put tremendous pressure on our current trade partners, China in particular.
 
Regarding the estate tax, I would say that the issue is a bit more nuanced than a simple tax or no tax.

IMHO, the "Estate" should include the deceased and any nuclear family components, therefore (unless otherwise laid out in the will), moneys that go to spouse and/or children should be treated as if they were going to the deceased before he/she died. Much like liquidating an LLC, any "gains" should be taxed at the applicable capital gains rate, but money that already has been taxed should be left alone.

Same with giving your spouse a gift. IIRC, the IRS stipulates that a one-time gift up to a certain amount is not considered "income," but outside of that, any money or gifts above a certain value are considered taxable income. This is classic government overreach and over-taxation, and flies directly in the face of the "community property" definitions as applied to divorce settlements ("What's mine is yours...").

Regarding tariffs, as with the IRS and taxes, I'm certainly no expert, but I find the whole debate interesting.

Economists have a tendency to crunch numbers without taking into account variables - for example, cutting taxes results in "X" amount of lost revenue compared to "Y" amount of spending, resulting in a net financial impact.

Historically, however, administrations that cut taxes often triggered increased government revenue due to an expanding tax base (diminished tax burdens resulting in increased job growth and increased individual spending - ergo, increased number of people paying taxes and increased gains from sales taxes). Calculating lost revenue strictly by Xs and Os can be misleading. The Kennedy and Reagan administrations both cut income taxes, and tax revenues went up, not down. The problem is that our elected officials can't resist the temptation to concomitantly increase spending as well...

Yes, certainly in the short term, it would appear that tariffs would have a significant negative impact on consumer prices, essentially acting as a "tax." However, what if a short-term pain turns into a long-term gain? Both China and Mexico have a lot to lose if they play hardball and don't acquiesce. If tariffs force countries to stop currency manipulation, techo theft, undercutting prices by utilizing slave labor, etc., the end result of leveraging those tariffs could very well pay off big in the future, especially for an American labor force that isn't given a level playing field.

Also, we need to keep in mind that many of the goods (not all certainly) can be obtained at least temporarily from other countries with fairer trade practices, i.e., Taiwan, Korea, The Netherlands, Singapore and the Norwegian countries. Ramping up trade agreements with other countries, while working on regaining energy independence would put tremendous pressure on our current trade partners, China in particular.
Thanks for the great, thought-provoking post.
With regard to tariffs, I have not read that they were a "net positive" in any case, short-term or long-term. I appreciate that they could theoretically put pressure on trading partners in the long term, and I hope that is the case, given the fact that in the short term, consumer goods will definitely increase in cost.

The issue with tariffs is that they may affect the middle and lower classes more significantly, as they purchase many of the same consumer goods that the rich folks purchase. This seems to be counter to what people believed they were voting for this time around (cheaper groceries and commonly purchased items).
I chose a very right-leaning website to illustrate, here:
https://www.heritage.org/trade/commentary/how-tariffs-and-regressive-trade-policies-hurt-the-poor

Also, your comments about administrations that reduce taxes need context. Decreases in taxes across the board may stimulate growth and increase the overall tax base, but that isn't what the Trump administration plans to do, from what I read.

The new tax plan will be a big advantage for those making over $400,000 per year (the top 5%). It will benefit the top 1% even more. If you make a modest income, tax decreases will be very small or zero.

https://itep.org/a-distributional-analysis-of-donald-trumps-tax-plan-2024/

So, as I put the tax plan and the tariff plan together, it means that the very wealthy will continue to separate themselves from the common folk, and the middle class will continue to struggle with costs outpacing their net earnings. The very wealthy (like the guy running DOGE), know that this plan will work very well for that small group of people.

Lastly, I predict (not really that hard to predict with the tax breaks for the upper incomes), that the deficit will absolutely skyrocket in the coming four years. Both wings of big government probably have it wrong.

Read: Harris bad, Trump worse (for federal deficit). Here's a non-partisan link about this:

https://www.pbs.org/newshour/politi...d-increase-under-harris-but-surge-under-trump
 

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