Tracking Iowa's RPI, KenPom, & Sagarin

[PCHawk]

And sometimes we get lucky and teams miss open shots like Michigan did. It all evens out. Do you dislike AdjO as well?

It has the potential to even out but it won't necessarily. I feel like Iowa is cursed because every last second shot seems to go in, including at the end of shot clocks. When a player makes a prayer to beat the shot clock, you can say to yourself that it will even out in the long run. Then they make the next 5 prayers too. There needs to be a lot of evening out over the next few decades to make up for all the last second shots against Iowa.

Oh yea, all those last second prayers that always seem to fall are affecting our defensive stats.

 

[PCHawk]

Offensive stats are probably more accurate. Mostly because good offense beats good defense.

 

[Hawk5656]

It has the potential to even out but it won't necessarily. I feel like Iowa is cursed because every last second shot seems to go in, including at the end of shot clocks. When a player makes a prayer to beat the shot clock, you can say to yourself that it will even out in the long run. Then they make the next 5 prayers too. There needs to be a lot of evening out over the next few decades to make up for all the last second shots against Iowa.

Oh yea, all those last second prayers that always seem to fall are affecting our defensive stats.

So last year we were #33 in the country in defense and the year before we were #30 and you still thought it was a bogus stat. I didn't

 

[PCHawk]

So last year we were #33 in the country in defense and the year before we were #30 and you still thought it was a bogus stat. I didn't

What does where we were have to do with anything? I don't think team stats are horrible. They are just flawed.Again I got confused as to which way you were ripping the team and was defending Bohannon. Individual defensive stats are horrible.

 

[Hawk5656]

What does where we were have to do with anything? I don't think team stats are horrible. They are just flawed.Again I got confused as to which way you were ripping the team and was defending Bohannon. Individual defensive stats are horrible.

I doubt you thought that the last two years were flawed when it showed us as a good defensive team

 

[PCHawk]

I doubt you thought that the last two years were flawed when it showed us as a good defensive team

I never gave them any thought until you came along. All you have to do is give them some thought and you will find the flaws.

 

[Hawk5656]

I never gave them any thought until you came along. All you have to do is give them some thought and you will find the flaws.

So you never touted KenPom last year when it had us ranked high?

 

[PCHawk]

So you never touted KenPom last year when it had us ranked high?

All I know is how the RPI works and it obviously sucks. I don't have an opinion on who is better of all the rest. Where Iowa is ranked in each is irrelevant.

 

[Hawk5656]

All I know is how the RPI works and it obviously sucks. I don't have an opinion on who is better of all the rest. Where Iowa is ranked in each is irrelevant.

I highly doubt you've never referenced our KenPom ranking when it was good before

 

[SteveGarvey1]

Let's track them all then. As of the morning 01/04/17:

KenPom: 75
Sagarin: 76
RPI: 145

Almost proves the RPI system is about twice as bad as the other two.

 

[PCHawk]

I highly doubt you've never referenced our KenPom ranking when it was good before

I would reference it now. How are you not wrapping your head around the difference between thinking defensive stats in general are flawed and hating KenPom? I guarantee you have no idea how his calculations even work so I'm not sure what your angle is. He's accurate because he had Iowa high in past years?

 

[Hawk5656]

I would reference it now. How are you not wrapping your head around the difference between thinking defensive stats in general are flawed and hating KenPom? I guarantee you have no idea how his calculations even work so I'm not sure what your angle is. He's accurate because he had Iowa high in past years?

I think his AdjO and AjdD are very accurate and not flawed

 

[PCHawk]

Almost proves the RPI system is about twice as bad as the other two.

The RPI could factor in less of a difference between playing a 250 team and a 350 team (both are all but guaranteed wins) and it would instantly become way more accurate.

 

[PCHawk]

I think his AdjO and AjdD are very accurate and not flawed

But you have absolutely no idea how it works so you just found something you like and stuck to it for no reason. I'll say it again. You have no idea how it works. Pretty much no one does. I saw a tweet from Seth Davis that said how much he loves KenPom and how much time he spends on his website even tho he doesn't know what most of it means.

 

[PCHawk]

I think his AdjO and AjdD are very accurate and not flawed

Please explain the math to me to show how it's not flawed.

 

[Hawk5656]

But you have absolutely no idea how it works so you just found something you like and stuck to it for no reason. I'll say it again. You have no idea how it works. Pretty much no one does. I saw a tweet from Seth Davis that said how much he loves KenPom and how much time he spends on his website even tho he doesn't know what most of it means.

I understand the basics of it. He explains it on his site so you can easily look it up instead of just saying it's flawed because it shows us as a poor defensive team

 

[Robowe]

It has the potential to even out but it won't necessarily. I feel like Iowa is cursed because every last second shot seems to go in, including at the end of shot clocks. When a player makes a prayer to beat the shot clock, you can say to yourself that it will even out in the long run. Then they make the next 5 prayers too. There needs to be a lot of evening out over the next few decades to make up for all the last second shots against Iowa.

Oh yea, all those last second prayers that always seem to fall are affecting our defensive stats.

Michigan just two game tying three pointers late in OT (one hit just the backboard, the other didn't really even look like a missed shot). I think it's just easier to remember the made last shots (by the opponent) and the missed shots (by your own team). I count these two in the good column for the Hawks.

 

[PCHawk]

Michigan just two game tying three pointers late in OT (one hit just the backboard, the other didn't really even look like a missed shot). I think it's just easier to remember the made last shots (by the opponent) and the missed shots (by your own team). I count these two in the good column for the Hawks.

I remembered those too.

 

[Robowe]

Please explain the math to me to show how it's not flawed.

http://kenpom.com/blog/ratings-glossary/

 

[PCHawk]

I understand the basics of it. He explains it on his site so you can easily look it up instead of just saying it's flawed because it shows us as a poor defensive team

Let's clear this up. It's not that his formula is flawed. It's that it's impossible to come up with a formula that accurately factors in all the random luck. If a shooter as good as Jok misses a wide open shot, it helps the opponents stat. If a terrible shooter throws up a contested buzzer beater from 30 feet that banks in, it hurts the opponents stat. Those are extreme examples, but there are a lot of less extreme examples that you can only see by watching every game and every shot. Then make an educated decision on how good the defense was in that particular possession. Since that is impossible to do, he developed a formula that ranks teams as accurately as it can without physically watching every game.