trj
Well-Known Member
By losing the last 6 of 7? Regressing to the mean to me would be splitting those last 10 games.
Time for some perspective
- Thread starter deanvogs
- Start date
By losing the last 6 of 7? Regressing to the mean to me would be splitting those last 10 games.
trj
Well-Known Member
7 years into this and this are where we are at? I am not advocating FM be fired, but I do not exactly have the pom poms out either. Maybe i need to take a step back and get perspective once the season is over.
This is what bothers me the most. It makes those wins look like lucky flukes, when they weren't.
With Mr. Davis's trans, I always knew that they were an O.K. team and they played at the same level throughout the season. With Fran and Alford, the performances are/were so disparate that you just don't ever know what team is going to show up.
I'm always waiting for the collapse to happen, now. I can't trust that Iowa is good even when they are winning 5 Ganges andin a row against top 25 teams, because it all looks like luck, rather than skill, due Rio the inexplicable collapses.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
You do realize that I posted this before the B1G championship was set right? Post fail on your part Tweets.
deanvogs
Well-Known Member
We are 6 years in, lets take a look where we are at:
Year 1, Fran was hired and took over a team that was 38-57 over the last 3 years and 15-39 in B1G play. Fran went 11-20 (4-14 in B1G) that first year.
Year 2, The team finished above .500 and got into the NIT where they won a NIT game. They also got to 8-10 in BIG play, and would be the last year they finished under .500 in league play.
Year 3, The team finished with over 20 wins and .500 in B1G play and in the top 1/2 of the B1G. They made the NIT championship game
Year 4, The team finished with over 20 wins, and .500 in B1G play and in the top 1/2 of the B1G. They made the NCAA's for the first time in 8 years.
Year 5, The team finished with over 20 wins (first time winning 20 games 3 years in a row since '96-'99) Won 12 B1G games and finished tied 3rd in the B1G. They made and won a NCAA game for the first time in 14 years.
Year 6, The team finished with over 20 wins (first time winning 20 games 4 years in a row since '95-'99). Won 12 B1G games and finished tied 3rd in the B1G. Most B1G wins over a 3 year span since '86-'89. First time finishing 3rd or better two consecutive years in B1G play since '86-'88. Best consecutive NCAA seeds since the '86-'87 (2 seed), and '87-'88 (5 seed)
If you look at the body of work there is no denying that this is the best 3 year stretch of BB since the '94-'97 teams. Some fans are hellbent to make the same mistakes over and over again. The idiots who wanted Mr. Davis gone, are probably the same idiots who are wanting Fran gone now. And Trj, I am not saying you are one of them, just pointing this out is all.
hawkeyebob62
Well-Known Member
Comparisons to Mr. Davis aren't really germane, as Fran has only been here half the amount of time. But it is easy to see similarities in the way their teams play. It's also easy to see that both had/have had inconsistent results, though in different patters (Mr. Davis's teams rarely went on long losing streaks except in years they flat-out sucked).
trj
Well-Known Member
Exactly. Mr. Davis could have gotten this group of guys to the tournament the last couple of years. The question is: Would he be able to recruit these guys to begin with? Would AW have developed better under Mr. Davis? We don't know because the game is played different now. Big men no longer play with their back against the basket, they are now are forced to play in space away from the basket. Would TD been able to adapt?
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
Yeah, from what I recall, Mr. Davis's teams never really had big melt downs. I seem to remember a pretty bad patch in the 1997-98 season, but they did rebound and start playing much better again by the end of the year. They just weren't a real good team that year - a marshmallow soft OOC schedule masked some deficiencies and helped maintain a high rating, but they were exposed once conference play began. Then there were a couple rebuilding years that were bad, but they always seemed to bounce back pretty strong the following year.
Seemed like Davis's teams usually won the games they should... Rarely won the games they shouldn't. 50/50 on 50/50 games.
Jury's still out on Fran.. He's yet to really do anything that the doctor couldn't, but unlike Davis, Fran had a huge rebuild on his hands. I think the next few years will tell us a lot. If Fran is still here and going on 10 years, I think we'll know whether Alford, Davis, or Lute is the appropriate comparison. We all know Fran > Lick.
I wanted Davis gone at the time. He was clearly trending down at the time and wasn't even trying to recruit at the time. Fran is still trending up and his recruiting is getting better as his teams get better. I was also in my early 20s back then too so I woukd probably see things a little different now.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I was in college at the time, and was in the school of thought that Iowa should be able to become one of those elite schools. We can dream for that, but if that was the case, I think a bigger name would come along soon and hire away said coach. We'd be a stepping stone. My mind set is different now, too.
Davis's NCAA seeds (not counting the first few years with Raveling/Lute recruits):
1990-91: 7
1991-92: 9
1992-93: 4
1993-94: No post-season
1994-95: NIT
1995-96: 6
1996-97: 8
1997-98: NIT
1998-99: 5
I don't know, were the last 4 really any worse than previous years? Average NCAA seed those first few years: 6.67. Average the last few appearances: 6.33
Seemed pretty steady to me. But I know attendance was supposed slipping a bit, and it was clear that Davis had done all he could.
People always hang on the LaFrentz, Collison, Heinrich issues, but Davis also landed Ricky Davis, Dean Oliver, Joey Range, etc. in later years.
trj
Well-Known Member
It is all good. I will never be the sharpest tool in the shed.
That being said, just a couple of years ago you were one the saying if you can't rebuild a program in 3 years, you need to go. You weren't advocating FM needed to go, but you were leaning heavily that way. You were that dude. So what exactly changed? The 3 tournament appearances are enough for you to back off? Are you getting invited to FM for dinner and now you are getting perspective on things?Look at your list again but don't look at the last year since the decision was made before that year. The 5 years before his last year made it look like his career was winding down.
Knight78
Well-Known Member
I agree with you, I don't think there's anyone who's not disappointed with how the regular season ended. I know I am. What's driving me nuts are the posters on here who immediately jump to the "Fire Fran" end of the train. As I mentioned in another thread, most people, including me, had Iowa finishing approximately where they did in the regular season. It's HOW we got here that's disappointing. But the idea that Fran is somehow anywhere near the so-called "hot seat" is ludicrous.
Does Fran have things he needs to work on? Absolutely. I think and expect he will be mroe aggressive with his use of timeouts next year for example, due to the youth movement coming in.
Since the Iowa State game, Fran has been 1) on the hot seat; 2) Coach of the Year; 3) hot seat again; 4) good coach; 5) back to hot seat again. Methinks we have people around here who overreact just a wee bit.
Yeah. Maybe we can hire the coach who wins NCAA coach of the year. That worked out quite well the last time we did it...... uhhhhh, maybe not?
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
True, but the results of that last year were from a team that was primarily made of players that were recruited before "the decision", so I think I will still count it.
Who knows what would have happened if Davis had been retained beyond 1999, though. I'm sure he recruited nothing during that last year due to his lame duck status.
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trj
Well-Known Member
That was a biggie I was at the '98 NIT game they said the attendance was 4,000, but it was less than that. And 90% of them boo'd throughout the game. I will admit it was hard to watch and entertaining all at the same time. Davis would put that press on and Georgia would go up and down the court and it would be dunk, dunk, dunk, Jurmaine Jones another dunk. Bowen,Oliver and Davis could keep up, but the other six guys Davis used look like they were running in mud.
True, but the results of that last year were from a team that was primarily made of players that were recruited before "the decision", so I think I will still count it.
Who knows what would have happened if Davis had been retained beyond 1999, though. I'm sure he recruited nothing during that last year due to his lame duck status.
His last season counts for his legacy. But it doesn't count to defend that he wasn't trending down leading up to the decision. After that season, I'm sure a lot of people were second guessing the decision that they were wanting a year earlier.
I'm not sure I get your point. Clearly Lickliter was a bad hire, probably the worst of any sport in Iowa history. Not sure how that relates to our current situation.
1977Hawkeye
Well-Known Member
I'm not following the logic of how he was trending down when his teams were still making the dance with the same regularity, and with comparable seed, as in the earlier 90's. At least on the surface, the team records/seed, etc. were just as good, overall, from 96-99. Those two years from 94-95 were a little rough with no NCAA tournament, but you wonder what would've happened in 94 if we still had Chris Street, and James Winters hadn't gotten injured mid-season. I also thought Kevin Smith was supposed to be back for his senior year, too, but not sure what happened with him.
I know people were getting tired of not getting past the NCAA 2nd round and all that, and things had gotten stale, if you want to call it that. I just don't think that things had slipped so much as people were getting sick of the "same ole, same ole".
Again, I don't know what would have happened past 1999 - maybe things would have slipped. Davis was getting older, and results do tend to dwindle.
