Three Reasons Beathard must be named starter for 2015

[SoliDeoGloria]

Obviously this has been a hot topic all of 2014. But rather than throw out nebulous arguments, here are 3 logical reasons on why CJ must be the starter in 2015 and beyond.

1. Returning offensive line depth.

Let's face it, we expected the 2014 Hawkeyes to be a team that dominated at the line of scrimmage. This year's offensive line consistently struggled to establish the line of scrimmage and lead the way to a strong rushing attack. We lose our top two o-lineman in Scherff and Donnal. The only consistent returning starter is Blythe. We could see some young talent like Croston or Boettger emerge; however, our expectations of the 2015 rushing attack should be tempered for the reasons I have laid out.

It is for these reasons that we will be unable to play a ball control offensive strategy. A game manager at QB will not be ideal when paired with an OL that can't consistently establish the run. We need a playmaker at QB that has a chance to move the ball downfield with a huge arm.​

2. The 2015 defense.

I will admit, I am actually encouraged when I look at what we have coming back in 2015. We lose some great talent at DT, but we have actually played more than 2 people at DT this year and we should expect Jaleel Johnson and Darian Cooper to be at least serviceable - if not much more than that. The LB and Secondary ranks should improve with 5 of 7 starters returning.

That being said, the 2015 defense will not be world beaters. The defense will be good, not great and it will struggle at times as it did this year. For this reason, 17-21 points a game on offense won't cut it. Iowa will need to score 28 points per game to get to 9-3 or better. This type of offensive production will not be possible using a ball control style with the personnel we have coming back on OL. Chalk this up to another reason why Beathard must start next year​

3. The future of the program at QB.

Beathard would return with 2 full years of starting work ahead. If Rudock returns as the starter, we should expect to lose Beathard to a transfer. Rudock would have 1 year of starting work ahead and our QB depth behind him would be scary, to say the least. Remember that we brought in Cody Sokol to add to our QB depth, and we already lost him to a transfer. We would be down 2 at QB depth if we lose Beathard.

Now, if Rudock was clearly better than Beathard, this argument wouldn't hold water. You would always start the returning senior and risk losing the junior if the play of the senior was clearly better. Let me be clear on this point: there is absolutely no logical argument to be made that Rudock is definitively better than Beathard. For the only time in the Ferentz era, Kirk has talked all year about both QBs playing. Now, that didn't always play out that way but the fact that Kirk talked about it was unique.

With Greg Davis' recent comments about re-opening the QB competition after the Nebraska game, we know that Rudock is not clearly better. If you have not established yourself as the starter after 2 full seasons then it is not going to happen.​

There are other good reasons to be made (main playmakers returning are at TE/WR, fan expectations, etc.) but these are the most important in my opinion. It is for these reasons that CJ must be named the starter going forward.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Yeah, ball control offense seems to work fine when you have a dominant defense. If you don't, then you'd better be ready to score some points if you want to do better than 7-5, whether the Big Ten is down or not.

 

[83Hawk]

I can name one reason why he won't:

1. Kirk Ferentz

 

[DBAHawkFan]

Even if CJ stays and starts, 2015 is nothing more than a rebuilding year for 2016. as you mentioned the OL has new starters and we don't typically have guys come in and dominate

what do we have for playmakers? smith, who some say isn't happy. And duzey. We don't have a big10 running back

om defense we have to break in new tackles, and a brand new mlb. Another year of growing pains for lb crew.secondary is tough guess. King got beat deep a lot this year

 

[CJSHawk]

Obviously this has been a hot topic all of 2014. But rather than throw out nebulous arguments, here are 3 logical reasons on why CJ must be the starter in 2015 and beyond.

1. Returning offensive line depth.

Let's face it, we expected the 2014 Hawkeyes to be a team that dominated at the line of scrimmage. This year's offensive line consistently struggled to establish the line of scrimmage and lead the way to a strong rushing attack. We lose our top two o-lineman in Scherff and Donnal. The only consistent returning starter is Blythe. We could see some young talent like Croston or Boettger emerge; however, our expectations of the 2015 rushing attack should be tempered for the reasons I have laid out.

It is for these reasons that we will be unable to play a ball control offensive strategy. A game manager at QB will not be ideal when paired with an OL that can't consistently establish the run. We need a playmaker at QB that has a chance to move the ball downfield with a huge arm.​

2. The 2015 defense.

I will admit, I am actually encouraged when I look at what we have coming back in 2015. We lose some great talent at DT, but we have actually played more than 2 people at DT this year and we should expect Jaleel Johnson and Darian Cooper to be at least serviceable - if not much more than that. The LB and Secondary ranks should improve with 5 of 7 starters returning.

That being said, the 2015 defense will not be world beaters. The defense will be good, not great and it will struggle at times as it did this year. For this reason, 17-21 points a game on offense won't cut it. Iowa will need to score 28 points per game to get to 9-3 or better. This type of offensive production will not be possible using a ball control style with the personnel we have coming back on OL. Chalk this up to another reason why Beathard must start next year​

3. The future of the program at QB.

Beathard would return with 2 full years of starting work ahead. If Rudock returns as the starter, we should expect to lose Beathard to a transfer. Rudock would have 1 year of starting work ahead and our QB depth behind him would be scary, to say the least. Remember that we brought in Cody Sokol to add to our QB depth, and we already lost him to a transfer. We would be down 2 at QB depth if we lose Beathard.

Now, if Rudock was clearly better than Beathard, this argument wouldn't hold water. You would always start the returning senior and risk losing the junior if the play of the senior was clearly better. Let me be clear on this point: there is absolutely no logical argument to be made that Rudock is definitively better than Beathard. For the only time in the Ferentz era, Kirk has talked all year about both QBs playing. Now, that didn't always play out that way but the fact that Kirk talked about it was unique.

With Greg Davis' recent comments about re-opening the QB competition after the Nebraska game, we know that Rudock is not clearly better. If you have not established yourself as the starter after 2 full seasons then it is not going to happen.​

There are other good reasons to be made (main playmakers returning are at TE/WR, fan expectations, etc.) but these are the most important in my opinion. It is for these reasons that CJ must be named the starter going forward.

Excellent post and I agree with everything you wrote.

The only established player returning on our o-line next year is Blythe. Jordan Walsh and Sean Welsh struggled mightily this year, and our depth at both tackle positions is alarming because of how undersized they are. Boettger is listed at 267 lbs. and Croston is listed at 270 lbs. Yikes!! Even with a best case scenario of off-season strength and conditioning they're still going to be undersized tackles of the B1G. Also, the time is now for Eric Simmons, Mitch Keppy, Ryan Ward, and Reid Sealby. All four of these guys have to emerge next year if we're to have any depth on our o-line. What are the chances of that happening?? We're in real trouble on the o-line next year!!

 

[tm3308]

Even if CJ stays and starts, 2015 is nothing more than a rebuilding year for 2016. as you mentioned the OL has new starters and we don't typically have guys come in and dominate

what do we have for playmakers? smith, who some say isn't happy. And duzey. We don't have a big10 running back

om defense we have to break in new tackles, and a brand new mlb. Another year of growing pains for lb crew.secondary is tough guess. King got beat deep a lot this year

King only ever got beat by receivers that are likely going to be drafted in the first or second round (Diggs and Boyd). I'm not worried about him at all. This is still the same guy who shut down Odell Beckham (LSU's QB play wasn't good, but Beckham wasn't getting open, either).

 

[knighthawk13]

We have a really easy schedule next year. That will help with the o-line, but we will need to play to our strengths....which is where the issues start.

 

[CJSHawk]

We have a really easy schedule next year. That will help with the o-line, but we will need to play to our strengths....which is where the issues start.

We had a really easy schedule this year too and two NFL-caliber tackles and we didn't have a 100 yard rusher until November. I realize having a fullback as your primary running back has a lot to do with that, but that also speaks to poor o-line play. Which begs the question: Are we sure Brian Ferentz is a good coach??

 

[HawkeyeMike23]

You don't bench a QB who passed organic chem, you just don't.

 

[HawkeyeNutz]

I'm extremely confident that CJB will be the starter next fall; it just won't be for Iowa.

 

[seepig]

Excellent post and I agree with everything you wrote.

The only established player returning on our o-line next year is Blythe. Jordan Walsh and Sean Welsh struggled mightily this year, and our depth at both tackle positions is alarming because of how undersized they are. Boettger is listed at 267 lbs. and Croston is listed at 270 lbs. Yikes!! Even with a best case scenario of off-season strength and conditioning they're still going to be undersized tackles of the B1G. Also, the time is now for Eric Simmons, Mitch Keppy, Ryan Ward, and Reid Sealby. All four of these guys have to emerge next year if we're to have any depth on our o-line. What are the chances of that happening?? We're in real trouble on the o-line next year!!

Wait Jordan was a 4 star....you mean after being in KF's hotbed of OL dominance he ISN'T dominating people yet?!

So much for developing talent....chomp chomp snort

 

[CJSHawk]

Wait Jordan was a 4 star....you mean after being in KF's hotbed of OL dominance he ISN'T dominating people yet?!

So much for developing talent....chomp chomp snort

While I hope he has a strong senior season, and he better, it's safe to say he hasn't become the caliber of o-lineman we were hoping for. So again I ask.....Are we sure Brian Ferentz is a good o-line coach??

 

[thetrza]

Starter for whom?

 

[SpecialKHawk]

Excellent post and I agree with everything you wrote.

The only established player returning on our o-line next year is Blythe. Jordan Walsh and Sean Welsh struggled mightily this year, and our depth at both tackle positions is alarming because of how undersized they are. Boettger is listed at 267 lbs. and Croston is listed at 270 lbs. Yikes!! Even with a best case scenario of off-season strength and conditioning they're still going to be undersized tackles of the B1G. Also, the time is now for Eric Simmons, Mitch Keppy, Ryan Ward, and Reid Sealby. All four of these guys have to emerge next year if we're to have any depth on our o-line. What are the chances of that happening?? We're in real trouble on the o-line next year!!

The other interesting thing is Boettger has been playing left guard on the second string since the NW game with Boone Myers at LT. Watching some clips from the bowl practices this was also the case. Yes he was in on the jumbo package against Wisky and Nebby wearing 99 also. That is not his permanent home though.

My guess is this is what our left side is going to be next year. Not sure if this is due to his weight being down, too slow on pass protect or something else but I had penciled him in earlier this year at LT.

 

[CJSHawk]

The other interesting thing is Boettger has been playing left guard on the second string since the NW game with Boone Myers at LT. Watching some clips from the bowl practices this was also the case. Yes he was in on the jumbo package against Wisky and Nebby wearing 99 also. That is not his permanent home though.

My guess is this is what our left side is going to be next year. Not sure if this is due to his weight being down, too slow on pass protect or something else but I had penciled him in earlier this year at LT.

The coaching staff has recently talked about "borrowing" scholarships from the o-line to address our lack of speed/talent at WR. I think we began paying the price for that recruiting decision this year, and next year will be a lot worse!

 

[SpecialKHawk]

The coaching staff has recently talked about "borrowing" scholarships from the o-line to address our lack of speed/talent at WR. I think we began paying the price for that recruiting decision this year, and next year will be a lot worse!

I do agree and that is why to recruit guys like Powell, Willies, Mitchell and Harris and not play them was super stupid as stupid gets.

Then play a game mgr QB and try to run a power game with a weak interior o-line and fullback makes just as much sense. We could have loaded up with 5 more lineman including some guys from JUCO if need be (although they probably also never play anyway) would have made more sense.

I actually agreed with Davis that we needed an upgrade at WR and was excited to get some of these guys. Could not have been more shocked to see them on the bench while guys like Hillyer, Vandeburg, McCarron got reps and T Smith rarely was targeted in some games.

 

[knighthawk13]

We had a really easy schedule this year too and two NFL-caliber tackles and we didn't have a 100 yard rusher until November. I realize having a fullback as your primary running back has a lot to do with that, but that also speaks to poor o-line play. Which begs the question: Are we sure Brian Ferentz is a good coach??

Due to the bolded, the jury is still out on Brian.

 

[CJSHawk]

I do agree and that is why to recruit guys like Powell, Willies, Mitchell and Harris and not play them was super stupid as stupid gets.

Then play a game mgr QB and try to run a power game with a weak interior o-line and fullback makes just as much sense. We could have loaded up with 5 more lineman including some guys from JUCO if need be (although they probably also never play anyway) would have made more sense.

I actually agreed with Davis that we needed an upgrade at WR and was excited to get some of these guys. Could not have been more shocked to see them on the bench while guys like Hillyer, Vandeburg, McCarron got reps and T Smith rarely was targeted in some games.

I hate to pick on the kid because I'm sure he's a good guy and a good teammate, but the fact that Matt Vandeburg sees the playing time he does is a failure of recruiting and player development!!

 

[SpecialKHawk]

I hate to pick on the kid because I'm sure he's a good guy and a good teammate, but the fact that Matt Vandeburg sees the playing time he does is a failure of recruiting and player development!!

Yes, we all know we need some guys like Vandeburg and he is not horrible player but when he moves way up the depth chart over other talented playmakers that means we have serious evaluation issues. When your program is riddled with this you end up underachieving and recruiting becomes impossible because you get a rep for not playing/wanting talented guys. It is a vicious cycle and you can see it with our results on and off the field. The only blessing is we play in a down league and a down division or this would have been another 3-4 win team this year.

 

[Knight78]

I hate to pick on the kid because I'm sure he's a good guy and a good teammate, but the fact that Matt Vandeburg sees the playing time he does is a failure of recruiting and player development!!

While I can agree with you about the failure of recruiting because VandeBerg was a 2-star coming out of high school, how can it be a failure of player development when a 2-star gets playing time over 3-stars? Oh, wait.... we have exactly three 3-star WRs on the roster: Powell, Hillyer and Smith. Scheel was a 4-star athlete, not WR. Harris and Mitchell were a 3-star athletes, not WRs. Every other WR on our roster (all 8 of them) is a 2 star or lower. We also have two 3-star and one 2-star WRs in next year's class.