This year's tournament

JonDMiller

JonDMiller

Publisher/Founder
I really hope Iowa can make their way into it, though I just don't think they will

That said, I think this year's tournament has a chance to be one of the most wide open and best, ever. From a drama/unexpected standpoint.

Watch it all turn chalk, but an Illinois has beaten Indiana, Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State...and is not ranked.

Can't wait for selection Sunday and hope the Hawkeyes can pull something off tomorrow none of us expects.
 


The first round may not be all that interesting and, honestly, I hope it is not. The potential second round matches look solid up and down the brackets. It could be the best BTT ever.
 


ssckelley said:
The first round may not be all that interesting and, honestly, I hope it is not. The potential second round matches look solid up and down the brackets. It could be the best BTT ever.
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Are you guys talking about the same tournament? I don't think the BTT has a Selection Sunday. Both tournaments promise to be phenomenal, I can't wait for them to start.
 


JonDMiller said:
I really hope Iowa can make their way into it, though I just don't think they will

That said, I think this year's tournament has a chance to be one of the most wide open and best, ever. From a drama/unexpected standpoint.

Watch it all turn chalk, but an Illinois has beaten Indiana, Butler, Gonzaga, Ohio State...and is not ranked.

Can't wait for selection Sunday and hope the Hawkeyes can pull something off tomorrow none of us expects.
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Haven't you heard Jon? Iowa has 0% chance lol. I hope Iowa shocks college basketball tomorrow. (Is shock the right word when 19 times a top 5 team has been beaten by an unranked team this year?) It would make selection Sunday more interesting. Should be a great NCAA Tournament!
 


That is why the Indiana-Michigan State-Minnesota and Wisconsin games STING so me so much. Not afraid to say it Fran made some bone head choices in those games that IMO killed us..


Iowa had its chances be securely in. Iowa doesn't have a chance tomorrow, sad but true..
 


DunderMifflinHk said:
Haven't you heard Jon? Iowa has 0% chance lol. I hope Iowa shocks college basketball tomorrow. (Is shock the right word when 19 times a top 5 team has been beaten by an unranked team this year?) It would make selection Sunday more interesting. Should be a great NCAA Tournament!
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So now tell me of those 19 times how many times was the Top 5 team the home team..
 


DunderMifflinHk said:
Haven't you heard Jon? Iowa has 0% chance lol. I hope Iowa shocks college basketball tomorrow. (Is shock the right word when 19 times a top 5 team has been beaten by an unranked team this year?) It would make selection Sunday more interesting. Should be a great NCAA Tournament!
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That's funny because all I've seen on this site for the past 4 weeks is "we can make it!" "we can do it!" so stop being a doosh and acting like there is some overwhelming amount of pessimism on this board and trying to be hipster about something that is mainstream.

Because the truth is there is now an inordinate amount of unsubstantiated positivity on this board. It's like a Mormon family reunion.
 


HawkPrdatr40 said:
That is why the Indiana-Michigan State-Minnesota and Wisconsin games STING so me so much. Not afraid to say it Fran made some bone head choices in those games that IMO killed us..


Iowa had its chances be securely in. Iowa doesn't have a chance tomorrow, sad but true..
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I don't think it can all be squarely put on Fran and his decisions. If you go back to the games you mention, in every single one where we held a lead late we failed to execute from the free throw line which imo cost us far worse than any coaching decisions that were or were not made. The bottom line is the players play the game. Our inexperience is what hurt us the most. The take away is that these guys got some very tough lessons this season in those close games and all it does is confirm to them that they can play with ANY team when they give their best effort.
 


As far as this year's tourney goes it will be a total crapshoot imo. Should make for some interesting brackets for sure. It looks like Gonzaga may get a #1 seed, who would have ever guessed that?
 


Breakdown of the 19 losses by the Top 5.

17 of the losses on opponents court
1 Neutral Court Butler over Indiana
1 Home Court Wisconsin over Ohio State
 


DunderMifflinHk said:
Haven't you heard Jon? Iowa has 0% chance lol. I hope Iowa shocks college basketball tomorrow. (Is shock the right word when 19 times a top 5 team has been beaten by an unranked team this year?) It would make selection Sunday more interesting. Should be a great NCAA Tournament!
Click to expand...

Love the hope but :rolleyes: at the discounted reality.

I saw the graphic last night, too. I believe VA over Dukies made it 19. What I didn't see was how many of those 19 were on the road; guessing the majority of those were not.

Still, just ball-parking here, let's say there has been somewhere between 5-8 different teams ranked in top 5 this year. Let's also split the difference on those 19 upsets and say 9 were on the road (probably too high but it really doesn't matter). Finally, for easy math's sake, lets say those 5-8 top 5 ranked teams have played 30 games so far.

So, out of somewhere between 150 and 240 games, there have been 9 upsets on the road.

Yea, while the # of big upsets is a huge jump over previous years, it still works out to be somewhere between a 4%-6% chance of it happening, on the road (9/240 to 9/150). That's exactly what I've been reading most to say -- Iowa has about a 5% chance of beating Indy, tomorrow.

Not exactly something you're going to run to the book with.;)

*Edit: Thanks for the breakdown, Predator. My ballpark was way to generous.

That's a whopping ONE out of 150 to 240 games where the upset occurred on the top 5 ranked team's floor. We're now down to a 0.4 to 0.6% chance of Iowa beating Indiana.
 
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BJHawkstrong said:
I don't think it can all be squarely put on Fran and his decisions. If you go back to the games you mention, in every single one where we held a lead late we failed to execute from the free throw line which imo cost us far worse than any coaching decisions that were or were not made. The bottom line is the players play the game. Our inexperience is what hurt us the most. The take away is that these guys got some very tough lessons this season in those close games and all it does is confirm to them that they can play with ANY team when they give their best effort.
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I will disagree.
 


STILLBUSTER said:
Love the hope but :rolleyes: at the discounted reality.

I saw the graphic last night, too. I believe VA over Dukies made it 19. What I didn't see was how many of those 19 were on the road; guessing the majority of those were not.

Still, just ball-parking here, let's say there has been somewhere between 5-8 different teams ranked in top 5 this year. Let's also split the difference on those 19 upsets and say 9 were on the road (probably too high but it really doesn't matter). Finally, for easy math's sake, lets say those 5-8 top 5 ranked teams have played 30 games so far.

So, out of somewhere between 150 and 240 games, there have been 9 upsets on the road.

Yea, while the # of big upsets is a huge jump over previous years, it still works out to be somewhere between a 4%-6% chance of it happening, on the road (9/240 to 9/150). That's exactly what I've been reading most to say -- Iowa has about a 5% chance of beating Indy, tomorrow.

Not exactly something you're going to run to the book with.;)
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Breakdown of the 19 losses by the Top 5.

17 of the losses on opponents court
1 Neutral Court Butler over Indiana
1 Home Court Wisconsin over Ohio State
 


HawkPrdatr40 said:
That is why the Indiana-Michigan State-Minnesota and Wisconsin games STING so me so much. Not afraid to say it Fran made some bone head choices in those games that IMO killed us..


Iowa had its chances be securely in. Iowa doesn't have a chance tomorrow, sad but true..
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Agree. Fran has cost the team some games by making bonehead substitutions and not setting up plays. It's frustrating.
 




HawkeyeRyno said:
Agree. Fran has cost the team some games by making bonehead substitutions and not setting up plays. It's frustrating.
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Talent issues make coaching decisions stick out more. Coaches are over and under rated on bench ability. Mostly about recruiting and chemistry.
 


HawkPrdatr40 said:
That is why the Indiana-Michigan State-Minnesota and Wisconsin games STING so me so much. Not afraid to say it Fran made some bone head choices in those games that IMO killed us..


Iowa had its chances be securely in. Iowa doesn't have a chance tomorrow, sad but true..
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Maybe, maybe not, but you have to like that Iowa has been in almost every game with a chance to win with such a young team. While it hasn't worked out this year, it may next year. If the trend continues then you can gripe, but I wouldn't gripe too much this year with the current circumstances. Yes, it's disappointing that they didn't win some or all of those games, but hey we're at least in all those games and it's exciting to watch instead of the snooze-fest that was Lickliter (Wisky-Style).
 


I don't think Crean manages a game well. I also am not a fan of Matta's in game coaching. The interesting thing is they win a lot of games and things seem to work out most of the time thanks to the talent on the floor. As we improve our talent level (which we are definitely doing) the in game decisions will look much better...because most of the decisions will work out because multiple decisions will all work.

This isn't to say I agree with your comment. I totally disagree. I do think many that feel Fran can't coach will be singing a different tune when he makes the exact same moves and they work...because the talent level, current players and experience have all improved.

HawkPrdatr40 said:
That is why the Indiana-Michigan State-Minnesota and Wisconsin games STING so me so much. Not afraid to say it Fran made some bone head choices in those games that IMO killed us..


Iowa had its chances be securely in. Iowa doesn't have a chance tomorrow, sad but true..
Click to expand...
 






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