This year started with Rhabdo.
- Thread starter CAARHawk
- Start date
JugadorHawk
Well-Known Member
Preceded by DJK and Adam Robinson in December 2010.
Not as bad as 2007.
Hawkfromnorwalk
Well-Known Member
2011...started with Rhabdo...ended with gas.
BSpringsteen
Well-Known Member
If the following four things happen, you will see a collective meltdown worse than 2007.
Iowa loses to Oklahoma
Phil Parker is hired as DC
Coker leaves
Garmon chooses Miami
And KF will enter next year on the hot seat in a majority of the fans minds.
In 2008, he had a great defense and Shonn Greene, in 2012 he'll have neither. 7-5 or worse will crescendo to a roar.
I don't think Barta will fire him unless there is a huge uptick in off the field issues of serious nature. But, I do think that would be a distinct possibility that 2013 is KF's last year.
If all of the above four actions don't happen (Iowa beats Oklahoma etc...) it doesn't mean he's off the hot seat with a poor year, but it means that he doesn't enter 2012 on it.
homes
Well-Known Member
More importantly, another 7-5 season could start to hurt ticket sales. That's when people that matter start to notice.
KF is under contract for a long time. Unless ticket sales take a dramatic hit, he will be around until he says he's done. It's too expensive to fire him now. For the record, I'm not saying he should be fired, and for some reason, I still have hope he will get things turned around in the next couple of years.
So in your learned opinion,if Iowa goes 7-5 the next two years, the Iowa athletic dept will write KF a 17 million dollar buyout check just to get rid of him? If Barta makes that gamble, he is a goner. He gave KF the extension,and so he will have cost the University 17 million...so he is fired as well,I presume?
Sorry, but KF is on the hot seat in about 1% of the Iowa fan base. That is still 10,000 loud complainers,so they do make some noise. But the other 9,990,000 Iowa fans still will support the Iowa coach with a winning record,high grad rate,no NCAA scandals,and does not embarrass the school. Those things still count to the 99%,who are rational.
BSpringsteen
Well-Known Member
While I can't say for certain, I seriously seriously seriously doubt that his buyout is the full contract.
It is funny how quickly people forget. We are in the sixth Ferentz three year cycle. People were firing him in his first three years, calling for a lifetime contract in his next three years, once again firing him during the following three and once again anointing him Lord of all coaches in the three after that.
Now that we are starting another down cycle the axe men are starting to come out. Over the next two years, those voices will multiply.
Then when the uptick starts again, the naysayers will slip into the shadows. Then in a couple of years, they'll be back out.
Now that we are starting another down cycle the axe men are starting to come out. Over the next two years, those voices will multiply.
Then when the uptick starts again, the naysayers will slip into the shadows. Then in a couple of years, they'll be back out.
BSpringsteen
Well-Known Member
CAAR -
I like you and think that you are one of the smartest guys in the room, but that has to be the most overly simplistic, hackneyed theory Ive heard and you keep spouting it off.
First of all, no program in any collegiate sport goes through 3 year cycles like that. It doesn't even make sense as it relates to recruiting and needing upper classmen to be successful.
Secondly, your history is revisionist. No one was clamoring for him to get fired in his first three years. In year three, he took us to a bowl game, in year four won the conference.
The first two years were the rebuilding.
Year 3 was the tide turning.
Years 4-6 were the identity of his team. The bullies of the Big 10.
Year 7-13 is what this team is and will be. A 7-5/8-4 team. 2009 was an outlier filled with incredible dumb luck.
What reasoning do you have for this three year cycle, cycles just don't exist like clockwork without some reason?
The answer is, it is a faulty premise, and one that you ought to stop perpetuating.
The flow is easy. You build it up, go to the top for a bit, and then once people figure you out, you fall back down to earth. Since 2005 we are: 7-5,6-6,6-6,8-4,10-2,7-5,7-5. To me at looks an awful like, we are simply a 7-5 to 8-4 team under Kirk.
I like you and think that you are one of the smartest guys in the room, but that has to be the most overly simplistic, hackneyed theory Ive heard and you keep spouting it off.
First of all, no program in any collegiate sport goes through 3 year cycles like that. It doesn't even make sense as it relates to recruiting and needing upper classmen to be successful.
Secondly, your history is revisionist. No one was clamoring for him to get fired in his first three years. In year three, he took us to a bowl game, in year four won the conference.
The first two years were the rebuilding.
Year 3 was the tide turning.
Years 4-6 were the identity of his team. The bullies of the Big 10.
Year 7-13 is what this team is and will be. A 7-5/8-4 team. 2009 was an outlier filled with incredible dumb luck.
What reasoning do you have for this three year cycle, cycles just don't exist like clockwork without some reason?
The answer is, it is a faulty premise, and one that you ought to stop perpetuating.
The flow is easy. You build it up, go to the top for a bit, and then once people figure you out, you fall back down to earth. Since 2005 we are: 7-5,6-6,6-6,8-4,10-2,7-5,7-5. To me at looks an awful like, we are simply a 7-5 to 8-4 team under Kirk.
I am not privy to the details of the contract.
Standard is usually between 50-80% of the base salary.
If KF's base is 3.1,then the range would be 2014-2020(7yrs) x 1.55 million= 10.6 ....to 7 x 2.45 = 17 million...
Not gonna happen. Maybe KF walks away,but he will not be fired in 2013.
Boss: Dude, people were furious about KF's first two years. The fan base had abandoned the program. You could get 4 seats, 4 sodas, and 4 hot dogs for $40. Even in 2001. The stadium wasn't close to selling out. People were fuming over the supposed Stoops fiasco and no one was happy with the horrible records or drubbings by Nebby, etc. That IS NOT revisionist history.
You can say that other schools don't follow this cycle, but that IS THE ACTUAL pattern of KF's career at Iowa. From what I see, it can be tied to two things, recruiting and retention. There are clear down years with respect to recruiting that coincide with the start of each down cycle where the upperclassman are just not that strong. On top of this, there are also key attrition issues.
With the up years, there is the opposite. For instance, the 2007 class stuck around and was really productive. But when those guys got on the field, they didn't leave room for other guys after them that ended up bolting the program.
This might be part of the problem. It might be that the way Iowa rides starters so much reserves get restless and lose focus. I really don't know.
But to discredit the pattern because other team's have not followed a similar pattern doesn't excuse the fact that it is Iowa's pattern.
You can say that other schools don't follow this cycle, but that IS THE ACTUAL pattern of KF's career at Iowa. From what I see, it can be tied to two things, recruiting and retention. There are clear down years with respect to recruiting that coincide with the start of each down cycle where the upperclassman are just not that strong. On top of this, there are also key attrition issues.
With the up years, there is the opposite. For instance, the 2007 class stuck around and was really productive. But when those guys got on the field, they didn't leave room for other guys after them that ended up bolting the program.
This might be part of the problem. It might be that the way Iowa rides starters so much reserves get restless and lose focus. I really don't know.
But to discredit the pattern because other team's have not followed a similar pattern doesn't excuse the fact that it is Iowa's pattern.
BSpringsteen
Well-Known Member
And I am telling you that it isn't.
The pattern for KF started in 2005. He is a 7-5 coach. Once in a while, we have a generational player (Greene) and do better. Once in a while, we have really dumb luck (2009). Once in a while, we end up at 6-6.
Fact of the matter is this. Since 2005 (7 years), we have only varied from 7-5 by more than 1 game once and that was in 2009. We've also finished 7-5 three times.
Actually CAAR to a degree it is. Up until last season's 8 win mark, you would have said the program was in a 9+ wins 3 year cycle when we were up. The previous "up 3 year cycle" was 10+ wins. So the up years are gradually decreasing to the down years, but the down years are now 6-6/7-5 vs what was experienced the first 2 seasons under KF.
Just rewatching the 2005 Capital One Bowl yesterday, an interesting stat was put up during the game...comparing Nick Saban and KF. In the last three seasons (coming into that game) they had each won 30 games and each had won 2 conference titles.
Iowa can be better than what we have been since then and we can be under KF. Something just feels off right now and that is what is frustrating.
silvanthalas
Well-Known Member
Why should anybody assume that there will be another uptick?
Round 2 wasn't as successful as Round 1, so based on that 'cycle', Round 3 may not be as successful as Round 2 anyways.
