JonDMiller
Publisher/Founder
I stayed off the message boards for most all of Sunday following Iowa's loss at Minnesota. I peeked a few times, just to make sure the site was running and the two or three post headlines I took a look at was enough to get me to shut the lid to the laptop and get back to...well, anything but the message boards.
Iowa fans are frustrated, even if some of the conversations taking place on the boards border on some sort of manic disorder with a triple shot of delusions.
Don't think for an instant that the message board vibe or the caller segments on talk shows speak for the majority of the fan base or are any scientific sample. I can speak to our message board and say that we have over 100,000 visitors per month from around the world and maybe, MAYBE 2000 people that post each month, and of those 2000, there are a few hundred that make most of the posts.
Having presided over numerous communities during the past 11 years that have flown the HawkeyeNation.com banner, the biggest mistake people make is assuming that they can tell the 'temperature' of a sports program based solely long the tenor of the message boards.
None of this is to say Iowa fans are not sour following the loss at Minnesota. Things were chippy after the loss at Iowa State and things turned ugly after the loss at Penn State.
I do understand and appreciate some of the sentiments being expressed, while ignoring the witch hunt aspects found in other posts.
I personally don't think this is the time for people to fly off the handle and call for a coaching change. For one, there are still four regular season games remaining in this season. I'll leave it at that.
I realize there are some of you that don't want to read my thought above that I don't think there should be a coaching change and are beginning to froth at the mouth even now. You feel like Iowa should demand more than it has gotten these past two seasons, and that if you don't expect more you'll never get more.
If only college football operated in that sort of a vacuum. It doesn't and the fact is that it's going to be harder to win at Iowa than Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska whenever the Hawkeye football program is in a position to hire a new head coach.
I am not saying Iowa is the seventh 'best job' in the Big Ten, but I am saying that it's easier to win at those six schools on an annual basis than it is at Iowa. They have inherent recruiting advantages Iowa just does not have. All but Nebraska produce more talent in their states than Iowa. Wisconsin has 5.6 million people to Iowa's 3 million. Iowa has more people living in its borders than Nebraska, but the Huskers have five national titles to draw on (three within the last 17 years) and no other BCS school in the state; they are a one team show.
"Jon, we are sick of the 'little old Iowa' BS!" There, I saved you the time to type it.
You might be sick of being reminded of Iowa's recruiting disadvantages, but it doesn't change the reality of what I just wrote. It's harder to win at Iowa than it is at those six schools. If Illinois ever hires a good football coach, Iowa may drop down another rung on that ladder because the state of Illinois produces enough talent to do a heck of a lot better than the Illini have done historically.
Iowa does have some very good things going for it, mainly the rabid support of the Hawkeye fans. That support, both at home and abroad, has allowed for the makeover of Kinnick Stadium and the soon to begin construction of state of the art indoor practice facilities. Due to the generosity of donors, Iowa has some great support programs in place for the student part of the student-athlete, in the Gerdin Academic Center.
Iowa also pays its head football coach on par with the elites in the game and for the past decade, I believe the return on investment has been fair. Some may have a different opinion on that.
Let's return to my comments from before on where I 'slot' the Iowa job in regards of how difficult it is to succeed here vs conference programs.
Rivals.com has added Nebraska into the Big Ten's historic recruiting rankings tables they keep. Here is where Iowa's recruiting classes have rated each season since 2002:
2002: 9th
2003: 8th
2004: 7th
2005: 3rd
2006: 7th
2007: 6th
2008: 9th
2009: 11th
2010: 6th
2011: 4th
Guess what the average recruiting class ranking is?
7th.
Guess what Iowa's ranking is during that time in winning percentage amongst Big Ten teams? 3rd. Guess where Iowa's winning percentage in all of college football is during that time span? 15th, ahead of programs like Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami of Florida, Nebraska, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida State and others.
Guess what that means? It means this coaching staff has done more with less than just about anyone else in this league, with Wisconsin being right there with them.
It means they have done a very good job of identifying talent and then developing that talent into more than just a competitive program.
When people call into Soundoff and say things like 'this coaching staff hasn't done anything the past three or four years' or I read things on this board akin to 'this staff doesn't know how to win'....even if I allow myself to give in to being ticked off like I was after the Minnesota game, it's the lunatic fringe statements like this that pull me right back.
It's the 'black or white' world of message boards and talk radio shows that forces me back to the middle ground, because I cannot identify or comprehend people who refuse to see things in totality, rather, they just want to focus on 'what have you done for me lately' and 'this isn't cutting it' and 'we should demand more from our coaching staff'.
Really, this is what it's all about; Had Iowa gone 10-2 last year, I don't think we'd be witnessing this level of outrage on the message boards. There would still be some grease fires from the Jihadic Wing, but it wouldn't be as widespread as it is right now.
Last year's team stubbed their toe. The coaches blew it at times last season, and they admitted as much, and people are still ****** off about it.
I won't sit here and say I was immune to some of those feelings, as last year was truly one of the bigger missed opportunities this program has had in my lifetime, or any Iowa athletic team for that matter. I'd put it up there with the 1997 Iowa football season as being one of the most disappointing.
Do I think it's fair to question things right now? Yes. Am I concerned with where things are headed? To some degree, yes.
By my count, Iowa has been involved in 53 games decided by one possession or less since 2001 (I count that as eight points, as you can score eight points on a single possession). Iowa is 25-28 in those games (including the 1-2 record this year). Iowa has played 134 games in that 2001-2011 span, so that means roughly 40% of Iowa's games played since the start of the 2001 season have been one possession games.
That is a lot of living on the edge...but being that Iowa is close to .500 in those games, you can't say they have been lucky or unlucky..the averages have evened out for them.
I will admit the above timeline sampling creates a stronger case for giving the staff the benefit of the doubt, so let's take a look at another popular data sample that people have been using on the boards; Iowa's performance since 2005.
Since the start of the 2005 season, Iowa is 5th among all Big Ten teams in overall winning percentage, but has a losing record against just two Big Ten teams; Ohio State and Northwestern.
However, Iowa is just 28-24 in Big Ten games since the start of the 2005 season. That's not a great record, but it's good for the fourth best mark amongst Big Ten teams in the same time span trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. Again, it's not all world and you will not print up posters with that data, but is it the sort of stuff you want to fire your coach over?
Not in the world I live in. During that span, Iowa has three bowl wins which is tied for the second best mark amongst present Big Ten teams. Two of those wins have been in traditional January bowl games. PS: Kirk Ferentz has more bowl wins than all but two coaches in Big Ten history.
OK, let's bring the data sample even closer to home. How about the last three years before the 2011 season began? Iowa had the third best winning percentage of any team presently in the Big Ten and 14th best in all of college football.
So let's reiterate something from above; the current state of angst is mostly about last season's unmet expectations. You might try to argue that it's not, that things have been going like this for a long time, but I believe if you have taken the time to read this post to this point, you'll see that you are wrong...or some of you will and the others will just argue for argument's sake.
We are also talking about the last 12 regular season games, as Iowa was 6-2 heading into last November, having just crushed Top Ten Michigan State by 30 or so points in Kinnick before the wheels fell off. Then again, Iowa did get to 7-2 last season after the 18-13 win at Indiana before losing its last three regular season games.
Are we really, REALLY going to act this way over one average regular season span? Iowa is 6-6 in their last 12 regular season games. That's a winning percentage of .500, or average.
Has the Iowa fan base REALLY gotten to the point where it is willing to toss away one of the most prosperous decades in school history from a winning standpoint because the last 12 regular season games have been average?
REALLY?
Losing to Minnesota sucked, plain and simple. Iowa has no excuse losing to that football team, and none of what I have written is meant to change that or meant to say the coaching staff cannot be questioned.
But my gosh man, don't lose sight of the big picture (2002-2010), or the medium picture (2005-2010) or the small picture (2008-2010).
The last 12 regular season games have been a tough ride, there is no debating that.
However, is that all of the sudden going to be the final verdict for this coaching staff in the eyes of some, and before the last four regular season games of this season have been played out?
I've been to this party before. In fact, I threw this party before, back when I was in my mid to late 20's and felt that Iowa had some birthright of excellence and making it to the post season 75% of the time over a 21 year span was no longer good enough. 'The Next Level' was where we belonged and damn it, that's what needed to happen because it was clear the program should be there and the coaching staff at the time was not getting it done.
Then Iowa replaced Tom Davis with Steve Alford...and the next level was attained, only we didn't realize that elevator was going down.
Some people are making similar assumptions right now...that this Iowa coaching staff has taken the ball as far as they can carry it, and that it's time for new blood...and damn it, we're Iowa so we're guaranteed a better lot in life than a 6-6 record over the span of our last 12 regular seasons games and it doesn't matter who we bring in, they can do the same things Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz have done, because we're Iowa.
Just watch out what you wish for.
Iowa fans are frustrated, even if some of the conversations taking place on the boards border on some sort of manic disorder with a triple shot of delusions.
Don't think for an instant that the message board vibe or the caller segments on talk shows speak for the majority of the fan base or are any scientific sample. I can speak to our message board and say that we have over 100,000 visitors per month from around the world and maybe, MAYBE 2000 people that post each month, and of those 2000, there are a few hundred that make most of the posts.
Having presided over numerous communities during the past 11 years that have flown the HawkeyeNation.com banner, the biggest mistake people make is assuming that they can tell the 'temperature' of a sports program based solely long the tenor of the message boards.
None of this is to say Iowa fans are not sour following the loss at Minnesota. Things were chippy after the loss at Iowa State and things turned ugly after the loss at Penn State.
I do understand and appreciate some of the sentiments being expressed, while ignoring the witch hunt aspects found in other posts.
I personally don't think this is the time for people to fly off the handle and call for a coaching change. For one, there are still four regular season games remaining in this season. I'll leave it at that.
I realize there are some of you that don't want to read my thought above that I don't think there should be a coaching change and are beginning to froth at the mouth even now. You feel like Iowa should demand more than it has gotten these past two seasons, and that if you don't expect more you'll never get more.
If only college football operated in that sort of a vacuum. It doesn't and the fact is that it's going to be harder to win at Iowa than Michigan, Ohio State, Michigan State, Wisconsin, Penn State and Nebraska whenever the Hawkeye football program is in a position to hire a new head coach.
I am not saying Iowa is the seventh 'best job' in the Big Ten, but I am saying that it's easier to win at those six schools on an annual basis than it is at Iowa. They have inherent recruiting advantages Iowa just does not have. All but Nebraska produce more talent in their states than Iowa. Wisconsin has 5.6 million people to Iowa's 3 million. Iowa has more people living in its borders than Nebraska, but the Huskers have five national titles to draw on (three within the last 17 years) and no other BCS school in the state; they are a one team show.
"Jon, we are sick of the 'little old Iowa' BS!" There, I saved you the time to type it.
You might be sick of being reminded of Iowa's recruiting disadvantages, but it doesn't change the reality of what I just wrote. It's harder to win at Iowa than it is at those six schools. If Illinois ever hires a good football coach, Iowa may drop down another rung on that ladder because the state of Illinois produces enough talent to do a heck of a lot better than the Illini have done historically.
Iowa does have some very good things going for it, mainly the rabid support of the Hawkeye fans. That support, both at home and abroad, has allowed for the makeover of Kinnick Stadium and the soon to begin construction of state of the art indoor practice facilities. Due to the generosity of donors, Iowa has some great support programs in place for the student part of the student-athlete, in the Gerdin Academic Center.
Iowa also pays its head football coach on par with the elites in the game and for the past decade, I believe the return on investment has been fair. Some may have a different opinion on that.
Let's return to my comments from before on where I 'slot' the Iowa job in regards of how difficult it is to succeed here vs conference programs.
Rivals.com has added Nebraska into the Big Ten's historic recruiting rankings tables they keep. Here is where Iowa's recruiting classes have rated each season since 2002:
2002: 9th
2003: 8th
2004: 7th
2005: 3rd
2006: 7th
2007: 6th
2008: 9th
2009: 11th
2010: 6th
2011: 4th
Guess what the average recruiting class ranking is?
7th.
Guess what Iowa's ranking is during that time in winning percentage amongst Big Ten teams? 3rd. Guess where Iowa's winning percentage in all of college football is during that time span? 15th, ahead of programs like Michigan, Notre Dame, Penn State, Miami of Florida, Nebraska, Tennessee, Alabama, Florida State and others.
Guess what that means? It means this coaching staff has done more with less than just about anyone else in this league, with Wisconsin being right there with them.
It means they have done a very good job of identifying talent and then developing that talent into more than just a competitive program.
When people call into Soundoff and say things like 'this coaching staff hasn't done anything the past three or four years' or I read things on this board akin to 'this staff doesn't know how to win'....even if I allow myself to give in to being ticked off like I was after the Minnesota game, it's the lunatic fringe statements like this that pull me right back.
It's the 'black or white' world of message boards and talk radio shows that forces me back to the middle ground, because I cannot identify or comprehend people who refuse to see things in totality, rather, they just want to focus on 'what have you done for me lately' and 'this isn't cutting it' and 'we should demand more from our coaching staff'.
Really, this is what it's all about; Had Iowa gone 10-2 last year, I don't think we'd be witnessing this level of outrage on the message boards. There would still be some grease fires from the Jihadic Wing, but it wouldn't be as widespread as it is right now.
Last year's team stubbed their toe. The coaches blew it at times last season, and they admitted as much, and people are still ****** off about it.
I won't sit here and say I was immune to some of those feelings, as last year was truly one of the bigger missed opportunities this program has had in my lifetime, or any Iowa athletic team for that matter. I'd put it up there with the 1997 Iowa football season as being one of the most disappointing.
Do I think it's fair to question things right now? Yes. Am I concerned with where things are headed? To some degree, yes.
By my count, Iowa has been involved in 53 games decided by one possession or less since 2001 (I count that as eight points, as you can score eight points on a single possession). Iowa is 25-28 in those games (including the 1-2 record this year). Iowa has played 134 games in that 2001-2011 span, so that means roughly 40% of Iowa's games played since the start of the 2001 season have been one possession games.
That is a lot of living on the edge...but being that Iowa is close to .500 in those games, you can't say they have been lucky or unlucky..the averages have evened out for them.
I will admit the above timeline sampling creates a stronger case for giving the staff the benefit of the doubt, so let's take a look at another popular data sample that people have been using on the boards; Iowa's performance since 2005.
Since the start of the 2005 season, Iowa is 5th among all Big Ten teams in overall winning percentage, but has a losing record against just two Big Ten teams; Ohio State and Northwestern.
However, Iowa is just 28-24 in Big Ten games since the start of the 2005 season. That's not a great record, but it's good for the fourth best mark amongst Big Ten teams in the same time span trailing Ohio State, Penn State and Wisconsin. Again, it's not all world and you will not print up posters with that data, but is it the sort of stuff you want to fire your coach over?
Not in the world I live in. During that span, Iowa has three bowl wins which is tied for the second best mark amongst present Big Ten teams. Two of those wins have been in traditional January bowl games. PS: Kirk Ferentz has more bowl wins than all but two coaches in Big Ten history.
OK, let's bring the data sample even closer to home. How about the last three years before the 2011 season began? Iowa had the third best winning percentage of any team presently in the Big Ten and 14th best in all of college football.
So let's reiterate something from above; the current state of angst is mostly about last season's unmet expectations. You might try to argue that it's not, that things have been going like this for a long time, but I believe if you have taken the time to read this post to this point, you'll see that you are wrong...or some of you will and the others will just argue for argument's sake.
We are also talking about the last 12 regular season games, as Iowa was 6-2 heading into last November, having just crushed Top Ten Michigan State by 30 or so points in Kinnick before the wheels fell off. Then again, Iowa did get to 7-2 last season after the 18-13 win at Indiana before losing its last three regular season games.
Are we really, REALLY going to act this way over one average regular season span? Iowa is 6-6 in their last 12 regular season games. That's a winning percentage of .500, or average.
Has the Iowa fan base REALLY gotten to the point where it is willing to toss away one of the most prosperous decades in school history from a winning standpoint because the last 12 regular season games have been average?
REALLY?
Losing to Minnesota sucked, plain and simple. Iowa has no excuse losing to that football team, and none of what I have written is meant to change that or meant to say the coaching staff cannot be questioned.
But my gosh man, don't lose sight of the big picture (2002-2010), or the medium picture (2005-2010) or the small picture (2008-2010).
The last 12 regular season games have been a tough ride, there is no debating that.
However, is that all of the sudden going to be the final verdict for this coaching staff in the eyes of some, and before the last four regular season games of this season have been played out?
I've been to this party before. In fact, I threw this party before, back when I was in my mid to late 20's and felt that Iowa had some birthright of excellence and making it to the post season 75% of the time over a 21 year span was no longer good enough. 'The Next Level' was where we belonged and damn it, that's what needed to happen because it was clear the program should be there and the coaching staff at the time was not getting it done.
Then Iowa replaced Tom Davis with Steve Alford...and the next level was attained, only we didn't realize that elevator was going down.
Some people are making similar assumptions right now...that this Iowa coaching staff has taken the ball as far as they can carry it, and that it's time for new blood...and damn it, we're Iowa so we're guaranteed a better lot in life than a 6-6 record over the span of our last 12 regular seasons games and it doesn't matter who we bring in, they can do the same things Hayden Fry and Kirk Ferentz have done, because we're Iowa.
Just watch out what you wish for.
