This is not a great NW team

[AEGHawkeye]

They have not beaten a team with a winning record this year. Four of their six wins have come by a combined 11 points, and those four came against a 2-7 Vandy team, 2-7 Rice team, 4-5 Indiana team and a 1-9 Minnesota team.

Their other two wins were vs D1A Illinois State and a 3-7 Central Michigan team.

Their pass defense is simply not good. QB Dan Persa is dangerous; 12th in nation in total offense, their leading rusher. Jeremy Ebert is a WR to watch, too.

But Iowa has been its own worst enemy the last two years against the Cats, committing five turnovers in a 22-17 loss in 2008 when they still had first and goal at the 8 with under a minute left but could not score a TD, and last year, they committed 4 turnovers in a 17-10 game where one of NW's TD's was on the fumble recovered in the EZ when Stanzi got hurt...and Wegher had a long TD called back on a poor holding call.

Iowa has only to be Iowa this week...and the weather forecast is grim.

Also, this will be the largest crowd for an Iowa game at Evanston since the 1980's...its one of their rare sellouts.

Still Northwestern though...and last I checked Ferentz was 4-5 against them.

Ferentz vs. NW = 4-5(44%)
Iowa has scored 258 pts.(avg. 29 pts. a game)
Northwestern has scored 154 pts.(avg. 17 pts. a game)
Iowa overall is 45-22-3 against NW
At home under Ferentz Iowa is 2-3 and 2-2 away against NW.

Bottom line is...These stats don't lie though, and there is reason for concern here. Ferentz only has a losing record against OSU and NW. I won't overlook NW and I hope that Iowa doesn't either.

 

[cabse5]

Some guys on the nation have predicted a score like 42-7 Iowa. I have one word for them: delusional.

NW uses a ball control pass offense. Iowa won't be able to sack their QB. It will be raining (and probably windy).
Notice all the previous scores for NW against Iowa's defense? At least 20 points. Last year was a fluke because their starting QB was injured in the game.

Iowa's pass defense will need to prevent the pass catch as they did for good portions of the Indiana game to beat NW's offense.

Every year, I have more confidence in Iowa's defense defeating Penn State or Michigan State than I do NW.

I'm going to chew half an asprin before the game just in case.

I want Iowa to win badly. Go Hawks.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

Some guys on the nation have predicted a score like 42-7 Iowa. I have one word for them: delusional.

NW uses a ball control pass offense. Iowa won't be able to sack their QB. It will be raining (and probably windy). Iowa's defense can't stop NW's offense. Notice all the previous scores for NW in this game? At least 20 points. Last year was a fluke because their starting QB was injured in the game.

I want Iowa to win badly. Every year, I have more confidence in Iowa defeating Penn State or Michigan State than I do NW.

I'm going to chew a half an asprin before the game just in case.

Go Hawks.

It's a pretty even game based on the match-ups ... that is, given the weather. The weather will likely not impact Northwestern's short pass game or their (QB) running game ... nor will it hurt Iowa's short pass game or RB running game.

Northwestern will move the ball and move the chains ... however, they likely WILL not put points on the board in a hurry.

Thus, the big question will be how well Northwestern's D tackles AND whether Iowa's balanced attack (on O) can gash the Northwestern D for any big plays.

Lastly, as is always the case ... momentum in the series often hinges on special teams and/or turnovers.

 

[1977Hawkeye]

Jon, when he's "on" Persa is a big threat and we haven't had great success stopping precision QBs this year.

That's precisely what I'm worried about. Persa is dangerous, and while we should be able to score points on NW's defense, I suspect we might give up some as well. If our defense can be "bend but don't break" this Saturday, we'll be fine. I still think we win the game, but Persa's passing (and feet) could make it an interesting game.

 

[bradk6]

Anybody else think the play that took Stanzi out of last years game was dirty? I've watched that tackle a thousand times and am quite certain getting Stanzi out was their game plan. The tackler essentially secured the leg, then shifted his momentum the opposite way trying to separate Stanzis upper and lower half. I would think that would be a sticking point in the Hawks heads as we head into Saturdays game. I'm thinking it's going to get ugly one way or the other.

 

[tweeterhawk]

Anybody else think the play that took Stanzi out of last years game was dirty? I've watched that tackle a thousand times and am quite certain getting Stanzi out was their game plan. The tackler essentially secured the leg, then shifted his momentum the opposite way trying to separate Stanzis upper and lower half. I would think that would be a sticking point in the Hawks heads as we head into Saturdays game. I'm thinking it's going to get ugly one way or the other.

I thought at the very least it was questionable. There certainly appeared to be a facemask that bent Ricky back in an awkward manner, contributing to the break. Whether or not that foul is called Ricky gets hurt and misses the rest of the season. I guess that can happen in FB. I would like for Iowa to come out on fire and I would not be displeased to see us commit a flagrant foul or two, although I don't think the staff condones that.

 

[racerhawk]

Barring a key injury or late-game garbage time touchdown by Northwestern, I think we win this one by 20. Their offense has scored 32 points on us in the last two years combined, despite being +7 in turnovers.

Take care of the ball and this one shouldn't be close.

My friend, I hope you're right. I'm going to be there sitting in the (likely) rain, and I sure hope your prognostication is true.

I dislike Northwestern as much as Fitz hates the hawks.

Hey Fitz. Break a leg out there!

 

[H8IAST8]

I just puked in my mouth.

Persa, Basanez and Bacher have combined to orchestrate four victories over Iowa since 2005 — more than any other Big Ten Conference opponent.
Wildcat QBs spread wealth against Hawkeyes | Hawk Central

 

[olivecourt]

It's a pretty even game based on the match-ups ... that is, given the weather. The weather will likely not impact Northwestern's short pass game or their (QB) running game ... nor will it hurt Iowa's short pass game or RB running game.

I don't care what the weather is, there's absolutely no way this is true.

I understand that we as fans feel snakebitten by Northwestern. It's not just football, it's basketball too, plus the weirdness of losing to Northwestern State, of all teams, in the NCAA tourney.

But let's look at this logically. We lost last year with a freshman quarterback and two freshman running backs. The year before that was Stanzi's first-ever start, one of the best running backs in school history got knocked out of the game, and we lost four fumbles. Despite that, both of those games came down to the final possession. From 2005-07, we struggled against everybody, and we dropped a couple to Northwestern but we also won at their place in that span. In '03 and '04, when we had great teams, we didn't play NU.

Sure, we haven't played very well in a few recent games against Northwestern. But there's been some fluky stuff, too, and to pretend that they match up evenly with us is some seriously misplaced pessimism. There is a reason we're favored by 10+ on the road-- it's because we're much, much better than them at pretty much every position. That's not me being a homer... ask anyone who follows Big Ten football: we are significantly better than Northwestern, and if we play well, we should handle them easily.

 

[bcl20]

Northwestern is the most goddamn lucky team in the world when they play us. You aren't going to get the luck they get for a 4th game in a few years. We are winning this one and it will be fairly comfortable.

Penn State moved the ball all over them in the second half with a young QB. We have the best QB in the conference. They aren't stopping us very often.

 

[hawkod]

It's time for us to again give Northwestern a reason to hate us---after that lackluster effort against IU hopefully the defense will be out for blood and the offense will come through in the red zone. I'm always petrified about the NW game, but there's no reason for this not to be a 31-10 final.

 

[WindsorHawk]

I'm taking them lightly...and will be there in any weather.

 

[jocohawk]

This was not a great Indiana team. I did not see James Hardy, Antwaan Randal El, etc. I'll wait and see what happens.

 

[HaydenHawk56]

and twisting on Stanzi's facemask. Pretty damn dirty if you ask me.

 

[homerHAWKeye777]

But let's look at this logically. We lost last year with a freshman quarterback and two freshman running backs. The year before that was Stanzi's first-ever start, one of the best running backs in school history got knocked out of the game, and we lost four fumbles. Despite that, both of those games came down to the final possession. From 2005-07, we struggled against everybody, and we dropped a couple to Northwestern but we also won at their place in that span. In '03 and '04, when we had great teams, we didn't play NU.

Looking at it logically, Northwestern still beat us even though they were starting first-year starters at WR ... and they were forced to start a Persa and it was only his 2nd career start.

Lastly, as memory serves, Northwestern hadn't enjoyed very good personnel continuity in the secondary last year either ... with the guys being pretty dinged up by the time they entered the Iowa game.

All the same, Northwestern still won. They still got the early pick against Ricky that eventually got us caught in crappy field position ... and which eventually led to the play that Ricky got injured on.

And, lastly, Northwestern also did it with effectively no legit threat in the running game ... that is, apart for Persa.

 

[JHHawk]

and twisting on Stanzi's facemask. Pretty damn dirty if you ask me.

It was a mugging. Wooten knocked the ball outta Rickys hand,and the proceeded to lay on his legs while twisting his torso back at an unnatural angle,while his buddy came by and grabbed Rickys face mask and twisted in another direction...

I do not think that KF or Ricky or our defense has forgotten...they have filed it. KF had an edge this week that I have not seen before,talking about NW giggling all the way back to chicago...Hawks should come out for blood. Head on a swivel,Mr Persa.