There is still hope...

H8IAST8

H8IAST8

Well-Known Member
Teams we want to win today:
Pitt over 'Nova
Texas Pan American over New Orleans
Boston College over Virginia
FSU over UNC
GT over NCST

Also, Illinois could creep into the top 25 on Monday. It will be close, they will probably be #26. They were 32nd in the AP but a lot of teams ahead of them lost:
#19 Memphis
#20 Butler (a team Illinois beat)
#21 Notre Dame
#26 Colorado State
#28 Akron
#29 Wichita St
 
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Our RPI is 91. At this point we need a BTT title or a collective aneurysm by the selection committee.
 










wundergrape said:
Again, BTT or bust. Wins at home over Illinois and Nebby is not raising our RPI 20 points.
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True, but things can still play out well. If Iowa wins the last two, they will most likely be the 7 seed in the tournament and play either Neb or NW. I think Wisky gets the #2 so that would potentially be Iowa's 2nd round game. Definitely winable, and the team I would prefer to play on day two since they don't run at all (and we should have beaten them twice). If Iowa were to win 4 straight including a win over ranked Wisconsin, things would look much better. Still need a lot of help, but by no means helpless.
 


There are conference tournaments starting next week that we will need to keep an eye on. Gardner Webb (184), W Kentucky (176), and UNI (74) can still help Iowa's RPI. Iowa State is still a big one for Iowa, we need Iowa State to get back in the top 50 (currently 53). They play Oklahoma State (26 RPI) at home on Wednesday, winning that game would almost make them a lock for the top 50 even if they lose at West Virginia.

But again, slim chance of Iowa getting in without a good run in the BTT (winning at least 2 games) and I think Iowa is a lock at that point (assuming they win the last 2 regular season). If they only win the last 2 and 1 in the BTT then all this RPI/Bubble watch will become important.
 


theboat said:
True, but things can still play out well. If Iowa wins the last two, they will most likely be the 7 seed in the tournament and play either Neb or NW. I think Wisky gets the #2 so that would potentially be Iowa's 2nd round game. Definitely winable, and the team I would prefer to play on day two since they don't run at all (and we should have beaten them twice). If Iowa were to win 4 straight including a win over ranked Wisconsin, things would look much better. Still need a lot of help, but by no means helpless.
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And if Wisconsin doesn't finish 2nd, MSU will and their RPI is at 7. I like either matchup for being a game against the 2 seed.
 


While i think ISU being in the top 50 is helpfully, its not like the Committee will see they are 54 and say "well too bad, that win wasnt good because it wasnt in the top 50". It helps when comparing blind resumes, but the committee wont see a blind resume, they will be able to distinguish a win vs. ISU (#54) and a win vs. #24 Middle Tennessee St. who has 1 RPI top 100 win.
 


H8IAST8 said:
While i think ISU being in the top 50 is helpfully, its not like the Committee will see they are 54 and say "well too bad, that win wasnt good because it wasnt in the top 50". It helps when comparing blind resumes, but the committee wont see a blind resume, they will be able to distinguish a win vs. ISU (#54) and a win vs. #24 Middle Tennessee St. who has 1 RPI top 100 win.
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But it is all data they are looking at, ISU being in the top 50 improves Iowa's record against the top 50. This is what's needed to get Iowa into an RPI position to where they might be looked at by the committee. Once Iowa gets into a "bubble position" then the committee will look deeper into what Iowa has done compared to the other schools they are considering for those final spots.

A team like Middle Tennessee St they will not even have to look at unless they lose their conference tournament.
 




If Iowa wins 4 in a row our RIP will be in the 60's and a record of 22-12 (9-9) (2 BTT wins.) The bubble is unimpressive right now so it's still possible we get in.
 




Resume Iowa vs. Nova D1 Only
Villanova 17-12, 4-7 vs RPI 50, 2-3 vs. RPI 51-100
Iowa 18-11, 2-8 vs RPI 50, 2-0 vs RPI 51-100

Last 2 Games:
Iowa lost @ #103 RPI and @ #7
Nova lost @ #116 and @ #44

Villanova has 1 more game vs. #7 Ranked Georgetown
Iowa has Illinois and Nebby left.

Villanova is in 8th in the Big East and could drop as far as 11th (Cincy and Providence won head to head).
Iowa will probably get the 7th or 8th seed

More than likely Villanova will have to play Cincy in the 1st round
Iowa will more than likely play Purdue or Nebraska.
 






BigD said:
^^^^^THIS^^^^^
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But 4 wins over Illinois, Nebraska, Northwestern/Nebraska, and MSU/Wisconsin will get us into the 60's. We will be favored in 3 out of those 4 games too. Win the last 3 that you should and pull of one upset in the BTT and we sitting well for an at-larger birth. We would be 22-12 (9-9). The bubble is very weak this year.
 


If you're saying we need wins (more than 1) in the BTT you are right. If you're saying we have to win the BTT you are most definitely wrong. This is assuming we are 9-9 heading into the tournament. We have to win 4 in a row to get a look. We are in if we win 5 in a row IMO.

wundergrape said:
Again, BTT or bust. Wins at home over Illinois and Nebby is not raising our RPI 20 points.
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