STILLBUSTER
Well-Known Member
Throw out all the other "concerns" as non-factors:
-- Time zone / night game: been there, done that, better prepared than last time.
-- Heat -- puhleez! Doesn't even compare to this August's thick and gooey training camp in the Iowa humidity.
(Not to mention, if you really trust the coaches and conditioning staff, they've been all over the psycological and physical prep for the last 2 weeks -- even addressing it during the ISU prep week.)
-- "can't win out west": with the exception of ASU, the overwhelming majority of historical reference goes back long before KF was even coach, and ASU was 6 f-ing years ago -- that's 1-1/2 recruiting classes ago, for cripes sake! Completely irrelevant, except to generate some additional storylines for the media to babble about.
Here's the deal.
AZ's overwhelming strength is on offense. However, consider this ...
-- Over the last 2 years, Iowa's defense has allowed the fewest touchdowns from scrimmage of any team in the country and has been a fixture in the top 10 scoring defenses.
-- This is a cumulation against multiple "high-powered offenses" (Penn State - twice, GA Tech, this same AZ team last year), in virtually every setting (white out, the Shoe) at every time of day, under some very challenging circumstances (most notably, Ricky spotting the 2009 opponents a total of 31 points -- (4) Rick-6's and a fumble leading to one of UNI's field goals.)
I expect AZ to score some points, the question is, how many? They avg 30.9 ppg over their last 10 games, including a goose-egg against Nebraska in the bowl game.
(By the way, Nebraska is the only defense on par with Iowa's that AZ has faced and this was after having several weeks to prepare for the matchup.) They've scored a high of 52, just last week against Citadel.
Meanwhile, Iowa's opponents have averaged only 14.7 ppg over the last 10 games. However, this includes (2) Rick-6's (against Michigan and GaTech), which means Iowa's defense has allowed an avg of just 13.3 ppg.
So, let's avg the two (30.9 + 13.3) and say it is reasonable to expect AZ's offense to score 22 points.
Next question, can Iowa score 23 points against AZ? Well, for starters, Iowa scored 27 against them last year in Kinnick. Even adjusting for home field, they scored 24. Ironically (actually, more a testament to their consistency) Iowa has averaged 24.9 ppg over their last 10 games, with a high of 42 against Indy. Meanwhile, Arizona has allowed 20.1 ppg.
Again, let's average the two (24.9 + 20.1) and say it is reasonalbe to expect Iowa to score 22.5.
Based on simplistic averages, Iowa wins 22.5 to 22.1. Wow, that's close! It's right on par with a 1.5 spread and the over/under being set at 46 points.
This comes down to the intent of the thread.
It is without question that last year's AZ defense was more talented and experienced than this year's. It is without question that Iowa has maintained it's consistency against far superior defenses (Penn State, Ohio State) while AZ collapsed when facing its toughest defense. Finally, it is without question that Iowa's offense is light year's ahead of last year's at this time (among other indicators, they are averaging 36.5 ppg vs 26 ppg).
On paper and on the field, Iowa is the more experienced, battle tested, talented and disciplined team in every phase of the game. (Read Patrick Webb's position breakdown.)
If AZ has to play Iowa straight-up, by that I mean, earn every point they score, they will not win.
All that said, while there is every reason to expect Iowa to win, in a game that has the potential to be this close, there is ONE and only ONE possible reason that Iowa could lose ... negative turnover margin. You cannot forfeit your offensive opportunities to this AZ offense. One step further, a "Rick-6" simply cannot happen this year. If Ricky spots them 7, it will provide AZ with the winning margin (period!)
Here's the zillion-$ question. Ricky's been stellar so far. Even despite Foles' sick completion % and passing ypg, Ricky is actually a better rated QB -- 9th, nationally, in QB efficiency vs 11th for Foles. Is this the next level that Ricky has taken himself to or is he due for a flash-back?
That answer will determine a win or a loss on Saturday.
-- Time zone / night game: been there, done that, better prepared than last time.
-- Heat -- puhleez! Doesn't even compare to this August's thick and gooey training camp in the Iowa humidity.
(Not to mention, if you really trust the coaches and conditioning staff, they've been all over the psycological and physical prep for the last 2 weeks -- even addressing it during the ISU prep week.)
-- "can't win out west": with the exception of ASU, the overwhelming majority of historical reference goes back long before KF was even coach, and ASU was 6 f-ing years ago -- that's 1-1/2 recruiting classes ago, for cripes sake! Completely irrelevant, except to generate some additional storylines for the media to babble about.
Here's the deal.
AZ's overwhelming strength is on offense. However, consider this ...
-- Over the last 2 years, Iowa's defense has allowed the fewest touchdowns from scrimmage of any team in the country and has been a fixture in the top 10 scoring defenses.
-- This is a cumulation against multiple "high-powered offenses" (Penn State - twice, GA Tech, this same AZ team last year), in virtually every setting (white out, the Shoe) at every time of day, under some very challenging circumstances (most notably, Ricky spotting the 2009 opponents a total of 31 points -- (4) Rick-6's and a fumble leading to one of UNI's field goals.)
I expect AZ to score some points, the question is, how many? They avg 30.9 ppg over their last 10 games, including a goose-egg against Nebraska in the bowl game.
(By the way, Nebraska is the only defense on par with Iowa's that AZ has faced and this was after having several weeks to prepare for the matchup.) They've scored a high of 52, just last week against Citadel.
Meanwhile, Iowa's opponents have averaged only 14.7 ppg over the last 10 games. However, this includes (2) Rick-6's (against Michigan and GaTech), which means Iowa's defense has allowed an avg of just 13.3 ppg.
So, let's avg the two (30.9 + 13.3) and say it is reasonable to expect AZ's offense to score 22 points.
Next question, can Iowa score 23 points against AZ? Well, for starters, Iowa scored 27 against them last year in Kinnick. Even adjusting for home field, they scored 24. Ironically (actually, more a testament to their consistency) Iowa has averaged 24.9 ppg over their last 10 games, with a high of 42 against Indy. Meanwhile, Arizona has allowed 20.1 ppg.
Again, let's average the two (24.9 + 20.1) and say it is reasonalbe to expect Iowa to score 22.5.
Based on simplistic averages, Iowa wins 22.5 to 22.1. Wow, that's close! It's right on par with a 1.5 spread and the over/under being set at 46 points.
This comes down to the intent of the thread.
It is without question that last year's AZ defense was more talented and experienced than this year's. It is without question that Iowa has maintained it's consistency against far superior defenses (Penn State, Ohio State) while AZ collapsed when facing its toughest defense. Finally, it is without question that Iowa's offense is light year's ahead of last year's at this time (among other indicators, they are averaging 36.5 ppg vs 26 ppg).
On paper and on the field, Iowa is the more experienced, battle tested, talented and disciplined team in every phase of the game. (Read Patrick Webb's position breakdown.)
If AZ has to play Iowa straight-up, by that I mean, earn every point they score, they will not win.
All that said, while there is every reason to expect Iowa to win, in a game that has the potential to be this close, there is ONE and only ONE possible reason that Iowa could lose ... negative turnover margin. You cannot forfeit your offensive opportunities to this AZ offense. One step further, a "Rick-6" simply cannot happen this year. If Ricky spots them 7, it will provide AZ with the winning margin (period!)
Here's the zillion-$ question. Ricky's been stellar so far. Even despite Foles' sick completion % and passing ypg, Ricky is actually a better rated QB -- 9th, nationally, in QB efficiency vs 11th for Foles. Is this the next level that Ricky has taken himself to or is he due for a flash-back?
That answer will determine a win or a loss on Saturday.
