The truth about our D, a statistical analysis.

DuffMan

DuffMan

Well-Known Member
We are 6th in the nation allowing 15.45 points per game.

In league play we are second in the conference at 16.9 ppg allowed (Ohio State is 1st at 13.6).

In 7 league games we have held EVERY opponent under thier scoring average. Collectively we have held B10 opponents to 12.6 ppg under thier scoring average.

In 7 league games we have held 2 teams to thier lowest scoring total of the year (Penn State 3pts, Michigan state 6 pts) and we have held 4 teams to thier 2nd lowest scoring total of the year (Indiana 13pts, Michigan 28pts, Ohio State 20pts, Wisk 31pts).

I too have been frustrated watching teams score go ahead points in the 4th quarter but you have to have some perspective as well. The defenses job is to hold the other team to as few points as is possible (regardless of when they occur) and overall they have done a remarkable job.
 
DuffMan said:
We are 6th in the nation allowing 15.45 points per game.

In league play we are second in the conference at 16.9 ppg allowed (Ohio State is 1st at 13.6).

In 7 league games we have held EVERY opponent under thier scoring average. Collectively we have held B10 opponents to 12.6 ppg under thier scoring average.

In 7 league games we have held 2 teams to thier lowest scoring total of the year (Penn State 3pts, Michigan state 6 pts) and we have held 4 teams to thier 2nd lowest scoring total of the year (Indiana 13pts, Michigan 28pts, Ohio State 20pts, Wisk 31pts).

I too have been frustrated watching teams score go ahead points in the 4th quarter but you have to have some perspective as well. The defenses job is to hold the other team to as few points as is possible (regardless of when they occur) and overall they have done a remarkable job.
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+1000000:D:D:D
 
Again, I don't think the problem is the defense as much as the offense. And considering the offense has the playmakers to be successful, that makes it even more easy to condemn the coaching.

My hope is that KF sits down with Soup this off-season and really discusses what he has seen from the offensive coordinator position. He would have insight that the other coaches would not have.

After that discussion KOK should really do the honorable thing and spare his friend from having to fire him. KF has given him a great opportunity to make a name for himself as a rising up and coming coach. He should have options to step up in the world. If he doesn't, that speaks volumes.
 
The D did not make critical stops in any of the 4 losses (+ Indiana). They cannot stop anybody within the Red Zone.
 
NedStokes said:
The D did not make critical stops in any of the 4 losses (+ Indiana). They cannot stop anybody within the Red Zone.
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Iowa is 13th in the nation in defenzive red zone conversion, and number 1 in the B10.

FAIL.png
 
Yeah, statistics are great, but how well has this D played under pressure? NW and OSU game winning drives on their last possessions. and I believe vs NW a 90 yard TD drive and an 85 yrd TD drive in that game.. brutal. This is not the type of year Clayborn came back for.

However one positive I can comment on, I am excited for James Morris' future here at Iowa.. he has impressed me this season.
 
Once again, it's the micro that matters here, not the macro.

Here's the bottom line for me......If we are going to run an offense that seemingly plays both up and down to an opponent, meaning most games are going to be close, then we HAVE to rely on our D to get the stop when it matters most.....in the last 5 minutes of a game.

Up until this year, we were 73-6 under KF in games in which we led going into the 4th quarter. This year, we lost 4 games in which we either led or were tied in the 4th quarter. That can't happen with a team that leans as heavily on it's defense as our team does over the past 10+ years.
 
This D looks just like the 2004 D. They play a great game, but are being asked to be on the field waaaaaaayyyyyy toooo much. That means they will wear down at the end of games.

The reason they are on the field so much is that the offense is bogging down in the second half and the corners are playing a little too large of cushions. That is the same thing that happened in 2004.

Johnson and Allen consistently gave up the seven yard slant and the offense couldn't keep the ball.

Remember, that year Iowa had a QB that was having a big year as well. He also had a good possession receiver and a deep threat.

The difference is that Iowa had no running game that year. This is not the case this year, but the OC hasn't seemed to figure out how to use the talent in the backfield well enough.

Also, STOP THE POSSESSION BY POSSESSION ROTATION AT BACK! That is just plain silly. Put in your best option to be successful on any given play. Don't have Coker in there on obvious passing downs. But use Coker more during good sustained drives. He is your homerun threat at RB. Keeping him off of the field when you have the other team reeling is just plain dumb.
 
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I agree with CAAR that the offense is significantly more worrisome than the defense.

The defenses is just not clutch. But they are #2 in the Big Ten in scoring defense and yards per game.

The problem is our coaching staff is continually playing like they don't have the talent to match up, when that is simply no longer the case.

Stop playing not to lose, start playing to win.
 
The defense played well enough this season for this team to be undefeated, unfortunately it did not bail out the offense in the 4th qtr of 3 big ten games. Look at the offensive scoring average of the top ten teams.

Our offense is designed by Coach Ferentz to be NFL well-balanced (run-play action) physical smash mouth low scoring offense. Someone else mentikoned this previous and it makes sense, We can blame O'keefe for poor play calling but make no mistake this is the offense that coach ferentz has designed. There is little margin of error and when the offense does not execute or the line does not dominate we struggle on offense

we could not score 20 points on a terrible Indiana defense, then whisky running the same offense scores 81? Illinois ran up and down on a mediocre northwestern defense

Our offense performed miracles last year and raised our expectations this year.

Next year we need to find a Reggie Bush talent to go with Coker, plus a big time wide receiver who can stretch out the safties and keep teams from stacking the line!!!
 
Rawkhawk73 said:
Once again, it's the micro that matters here, not the macro.

Here's the bottom line for me......If we are going to run an offense that seemingly plays both up and down to an opponent, meaning most games are going to be close, then we HAVE to rely on our D to get the stop when it matters most.....in the last 5 minutes of a game.

Up until this year, we were 73-6 under KF in games in which we led going into the 4th quarter. This year, we lost 4 games in which we either led or were tied in the 4th quarter. That can't happen with a team that leans as heavily on it's defense as our team does over the past 10+ years.
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I'm not saying the micro in unimportant. I'm saying looking at it alone cannot give you an accurate picture of what's going on, it's like wearing blinders.

It's the equivilent of saying the economy is doing great because the stock market is is up 40% over the last 18 mos.
 
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Yes, the illini ran for 519 yds vs NW,and that would seem to indicate that Iowa should have run more,and better vs NW,but
1. the illini had better backs than Iowa, with Leshoure an NFL prospect.
2. NW did not control the ball due to having a frosh at qb vs Persa. Persa was the difference-maker for NW the whole year.

Still, with bad weather conditions,I think Iowa should have ran more vs NW.
But without Gettis and McMillan,our o-line suffered vs IU,NW,and OSU.

It is like Ricky's numbers,which are stellar,but fans come away thinking he was not as good this year,when he really was much better. It all comes down to clutchness,for both Ricky,our offense and also for our defense and special teams....we had a serious lack of clutch this year,for unexplainable reasons.
 
The staff really hurt the offense by leaving Robinson in the game
against MSU. He has not been the same. Up and down every single series. He'll have a series where he has a 5 yard run, a 10 yard run, followed by another series where he barely gets back to the line.

The staff not trusting Coker just baffles me. Maybe he fumbles a lot in practice, but then why did he start against IN?

I think a healthy Robinson does just fine against IN, specifically in the redzone.
 
The D would not be on the field so much if they could stop a team on 3rd down!!!! Granted the offense has not helped out by sustaining drives, etc., but when our D cannot get off the field consistently on 3rd and long, at some point they need to point the finger at themselves just as much as our O does!
 
76Hawkeye said:
The D would not be on the field so much if they could stop a team on 3rd down!!!! Granted the offense has not helped out by sustaining drives, etc., but when our D cannot get off the field consistently on 3rd and long, at some point they need to point the finger at themselves just as much as our O does!
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This. Our offense has been terrible in the fourth but they also only have one or two possesions in between six minute drives by whoever we're playing. I think it's easy for them to lose some of their rythym when they are on the sideline for such a long time. I've never had less faith in a defense to get a big third or fourth down stop, it doesn't matter the distance. I would have bet everything I had on Ohio St getting that 4th and 10. Once a team gets to a point where they have to go for it on fourth down against us, it's over. Our defense just can not stop teams from getting 10 yards in four downs.
 
Here's another stat Duffman: national championship winner Alabama won 4 games when the offense scored 24 or less points.
22-3 Mississippi
20-6 S. Carolina
12-10 Tennessee
24-15 LSU

How would Iowa's D fare against those offenses?

Is your premise that Iowa's D averaged about 15 points in Big Ten play and consequently it's all good? Really? When the D was asked to "cowboy up"
at the end of games and they couldn't?

You're living in a dream world or at least a defense homie world.
 
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cabse5 said:
Here's another stat Duffman: national championship winner Alabama won 4 games when the offense scored 24 or less points.
22-3 Mississippi
20-6 S. Carolina
12-10 Tennessee
24-15 LSU

How would Iowa's D fare against those offenses?

Is your premise that Iowa's D averaged about 15 points in Big Ten play and consequently it's all good? Really? When the D was asked to "cowboy up"
at the end of games and they couldn't?

You're living in a dream world or at least a defense homie world.
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Yes I use our defenses actual complete games performance to judge thier effectiveness rather than their hypothetical performance against SEC teams or single possessions.
 
Our defense is good statistically but doesn't get the job done when the chips are down.

Kinda like a baseball player who bats .330 during the season with 40 hrs., then goes 1-23 in the world series.

When the spotlight's on, this D just hasn't gotten in done.
 
Although our offense has not produced long sustained drives and many points in the games we have lost, fact of matter is our offense put our defense in position to close it out for us, with a 4th qtr lead in 3 of the 4 losses! I still for the life of me cannot figure out why so many of you think our defense has done no wrong? Give me a break! Most teams and fans would want their best aspect of the their team on the field when it counts, and going into this year it was our defense! Well, they have not delivered all year in the clutch. Don't get me wrong, neither has our offense, but again we were ahead in 3 of 4 losses in 4th qtr!!!
 
Statistics are for losers.

Wins are for winners.

This D has failed or almost flirted with failure at every single critical juncture. And you can and should blame the offense for scoring about half as many points as it should with that talent, but the bottom line is that that Statistic Champion defense was on the field with an opportunity to win the game by defending a lead or at worst preserve a tie (AZ) in EVERY SINGLE LOSS. Now THAT is a stat that matters.

And that stat is a ballpunch.
 
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