TCU in Sugar Bowl

If they finish in the top 16 they are an automatic bid for a BCS Bowl....scenario B will put them ahead of the Big East Champion so if they jump 2 spots to get into top 16 they are in. They may jump MSU/WI loser and KSU, Baylor, OU and UGA possibly if any of them lose. Just need to jump 2 of those.

The champion of Conference USA, the Mid-American Conference, the Mountain West Conference, the Sun Belt Conference, or the Western Athletic Conference will earn an automatic berth in a BCS bowl game if either:

  • A. Such team is ranked in the top 12 of the final BCS Standings, or,
  • B. Such team is ranked in the top 16 of the final BCS Standings and its ranking in the final BCS Standings is higher than that of a champion of a conference that has an annual automatic berth in one of the BCS bowls.
 
It's top 14 are eligible. Just so you know

True. The top-14 are eligible for at-large berths, but if the highest ranked non-AQ conference champion is ranked in the top-16 and is ahead of an AQ conference champion, they are receive an automatic berth, not an at-large berth.

There are rules, and then there are the nuanced elements of rules that are in the fine print. Here's a link to the complete BCS selection rules.

BCS selection procedures
 
TCU beating UNLV is not going to get them in the top 16 of the BCS. They could get ranked in the top 16 of the USA Today poll but the computers have them ranked low and the SOS beating UNLV will not help.
 

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