Tariffs

[Westernhawk]

A large amount of my knowledge in this area is infantile. I'm going to preface this with a couple general principles.
1. I believe in free trade.
2. What we currently have... Isn't really free trade. And I mean, before the tariff stupidity. When we live in a world where China, a "Communist Utopia:tm:" is exploiting the labor of its people to enrich its ruling class, while redistributing wealth from its own tax (and tariff) policies to keep those anticompetitive enterprises afloat, that looks to me like a long-term national security risk.
3. I don't trust Trump or his administration to lead us through anything resembling whatever the F they think they're doing. And I was a Trump voter, to be clear.

Now a question that comes to mind. It took a while to get to where we are, but ultimately, what did the landscape look like before NAFTA? I can't say with any meaningful granularity, beyond the fact that a lot more manufacturing happened here. I'm certain it would take a very long time to unwind some of our foreign manufacturing and bring some of it back. I also think we need a lot more level-headed leadership than we currently have to even begin to form a coherent strategy leading us back in that direction.

Certainly, China didn't used to be the global export powerhouse it is today. Some goods will have to be more expensive in the short term under any sort of attempt to resolve whatever issues might exist, and even medium to long term if that trade relationship is a thing that's worth rolling back. I'm not against suggesting there may be merits to exploring that option. I just wish we had strong enough leadership to try to formulate, I don't know, any sort of plan.

Great post. To me, it's true that Trump's blunt instrument of "tariffs for all, for a long time" is a fool's errand. BTW why did you vote for Trump? He consistently does stupid shit.

At any rate, it would be a great discussion here to see what other kinds of options are available to deal with China, specifically.

Iowa used to be a vibrant state, but that was many decades ago. My town had Lenox and Fisher Controls, as well as a canning factory many years ago, and other small manufacturing firms. Now, I think it just slaughters animals for a huge company.

What brings manufacturing back over the long haul in reality? That's a GREAT discussion topic.

Towns and states must also have the right kinds of workers, able to do the manufacturing, unless we just want to sew underwear or something.

 

[Fryowa]

What brings manufacturing back over the long haul in reality? That's a GREAT discussion topic.

Nothing.

I'm totally serious.

The cheap labor available in China is the sole reason we have any of the modern comforts we have. I've been there and seen it first hand many times as a part of my job. Name 99.999% of any of the products you use on a daily basis and they invariably come from China where there are no wage protections, unions, safety laws, worker's comp, wage competition, or labor shortages.

The keyboard I'm typing on is a perfect example. The only reason it doesn't cost $350 instead of $29.99 is because there are literal hordes of people in a Chinese factory churning millions of them out every week for wages that cover their cost of living and that's it. These people don't have retirement accounts, houses, cars, jet skis, kids' tuition, man caves, Hawkeye tickets, personal investments, new washer/dryer/fridges, additions to their houses, whirlpool tubs, new decks, riding lawn mowers, mortgages, HELOCs, car loans...you get the idea...to pay for like all of us here do. In order to get things cheap enough to make manufacturing viable here, everyone in the US is going to have to give those dreams up.

Because to have those things you need to be six-figures combined in a household to afford them. And to have those six-figures, you need a job that will pay you handsomely and still maintain something to put in your IRA/401k. In order to pay you handsomely enough to afford all those comforts, your employer needs to charge 15 times what China charges for the same thing functionally.

We are in an economic war now with a communist country whose populace doesn't have any of those comforts that we do, are comfortable without them, and they have LITERAL billions of people to fill those jobs. They cannot complain or revolt because they'll be thrown in jail or a labor camp. They have the figurative weapons to outlast us...it's not even close.

To think there's a way out of this thing bringing manufacturing back here is stupidity when you look at the situation objectively. Let me ask you this...

Are you willing to work for just enough money to buy your food for the month, with no OSHA, no Constitution, no retirement accounts, no home ownership, no car, no fishing boat/golf membership/Hawkeye tickets, no hobbies (at least what Americans call hobbies...)? The answer is no, so there's your answer to the original question. Take up woodworking and buy a few grand worth of tools and materials for a hobby in your 3 car garage? Nope. Buy a boat to take your family out on Sunday afternoon? Nope. Buy a Camaro you've always wanted and can finally afford because you worked hard your whole life? Nope. Take a week vacation once a year to go see MLB games at different ballparks because you love baseball and always dreamt of it? Nope.

There's your answer.

Because the country and people we are fighting with don't need or want any of those things. They are fine without because that's what they've known for generations upon generations. They're just hamsters on a wheel and they're fine with it because it's all they know. Are you good with that?

 

[CP87]

Aside from the labor and higher cost piece, the biggest barrier is infrastructure. Even if you could find people to work, and even if you could find those people cheap enough, there’s no factories in the US able to do it. China exported over 330,000,000 vehicle tires last year. The US tire factories if operating at full capacity (which isn’t going to happen regardless) can only produce 11 million vehicle tires per year. There simply aren’t even a fraction of a percent of the factories in the US that there are in China. Shoes? No shoe factories in the US. Trailer couplers? No factories in the US. TVs? Clothes? Microprocessors? The list goes on and on and on.

Trump and his people know full well that the US can’t just miracle tens of thousands of factories (not exaggerating) into existence in a year or two and there aren’t enough people to work in them anyway. Trump took a stubborn gamble that China would back down and they ain’t gonna. It’s as simple as an ill-advised pissing match that Trump cannot win. One of two things is going to happen…either Trump admits he’s beat by rescinding the tariffs or he sticks it out until our economy is destroyed. Even if your retired with your investments in what until now was a safe space, look at the bond market. There hasn’t been this kind of instability in the T-bond market in modern history in the US. If you’re in your 60s or 70s and this thing g keeps on for a while, you’re better off with your cash buried in fruit jars under your front porch. I truly don’t think US citizens understand how insane this thing is going to be.

You're just stealing your shit straight from Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-thomas-friedman.html

Oh wait, your post came first, I guess he is stealing his shit straight from you. Apparently, going to China and seeing the infrastructure they have built is pretty mind-blowing.

 

[Fryowa]

You're just stealing your shit straight from Ezra Klein: https://www.nytimes.com/2025/04/15/opinion/ezra-klein-podcast-thomas-friedman.html

Oh wait, your post came first, I guess he is stealing his shit straight from you. Apparently, going to China and seeing the infrastructure they have built is pretty mind-blowing.

It is. China has 2.8 MILLION factories. Try and wrap your brain around 2.8 million of anything, let alone huge buildings employing hundreds of workers each.

You would shit yourself the first time you step off a plane in Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen, any of them. It's square mile after square mile after square mile of factory buildings and warehouses. It's absolutely unbelievable and there are probably 100 cities like those.

 

[Fryowa]

Oh wait, your post came first, I guess he is stealing his shit straight from you.

I just wish the people saying this is a good thing would educate themselves a little bit on macro-economics. I'm a total idiot; if I can understand it anyone can.

 

[CP87]

It is. China has 2.8 MILLION factories. Try and wrap your brain around 2.8 million of anything, let alone huge buildings employing hundreds of workers each.

You would shit yourself the first time you step off a plane in Hangzhou, Ningbo, Shenzhen, any of them. It's square mile after square mile after square mile of factory buildings and warehouses. It's absolutely unbelievable and there are probably 100 cities like those.

It is pretty clear I am not on board with most of what the Trump admin is doing. However, I think there are some interesting ideas being thrown around. They have mentioned creating "special economic zones" where a bunch of red tape can be cut and construction fast-tracked to try to catch up in some of these areas. Obviously, we are not going to be able to catch up on tires, or EVs, or solar panels...but we could try to get ahead on emerging tech/industries like AI and robotics (apparently China's robotics innovations are also pretty mind-blowing).

 

[CP87]

I just wish the people saying this is a good thing would educate themselves a little bit on macro-economics. I'm a total idiot; if I can understand it anyone can.

I will say, there are some intelligent people (e.g. Oren Cass) making a case for more protectionism that makes sense to me. I also think while our trade imbalance with any country is not an issue, our net trade deficit with the rest of the world could be problematic. I don't know what the answer is, but I am pretty confident it is not severe tariffs across the board.