SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 9
Last week: 4-8 (caught some tough breaks last week losing three covers late in the 4th quarter, and having the Cowboys lose Romo with a 20-7 lead, but no excuses for suckitude even though I just made a few)
Overall: 46-49 (cue up your snarky comments which I would certainly make if I were you)
Best Bets: 4-4
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today and home team in all CAPS.
TCU-UNLV under 54.5
This is a look-ahead game for the Horned Frogs with fellow unbeaten Utah on deck. Plus, TCU has allowed a grand total of 14 points in its last four games, which is a big reason why six of its last seven games have gone under the total. TCU 38, UNLV 3
IOWA -6.5 over Michigan State
How often is a top five team undefeated this late in the season a touchdown underdog to a team with two losses? The oddsmakers are trying to tell you something with that spread. This is an ambush situation for the Spartans, who are playing in rarified air they haven’t flown in since “kill, Bubba kill†was being chanted on campus. Michigan State has had a great start, but Iowa plays the same style and has more playmakers and is playing at home in a must-win scenario. Hawkeyes have covered four straight and six of the last seven in this series. Kirk Ferentz is undefeated as a home favorite the week after a home loss. Iowa 31, Michigan State 21
Kansas +19 over IOWA STATE
Trends and talent here favor ISU, who hasn’t beaten the Jayhawks straight up since 2004. However, the situation favors Kansas with the Cyclones coming off a big, emotional win at Texas and probably due to letdown a little bit against an undermanned opponent. Iowa State 31, Kansas 17
MISSISSIPPI +7 over Auburn
Another team in a letdown spot. Tigers are #1 in BCS for first time ever and victories in a slew of emotional games over the past month or so. Meanwhile, the Rebels have been getting better with Jeremiah Masoli settling into the quarterback position, and the fact a team that lost at home to Jacksonville State is only a touchdown underdog to a top-ranked squad speaks volumes about how much the situation favors Ole Miss. Houston Nutt has a track record of upsetting top five teams, and the Rebels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog. Auburn 31, Mississippi 28
Louisville +11 over PITTSBURGH
Cardinals are probably playing the best defense in the Big East right now with shutouts in two of their last three games, and they’ve got the steadier hand at quarterback and the healthier team in this matchup as well. Panthers are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Louisville 23, Pittsburgh 21
TEXAS A&M-Texas Tech over 57.5
Both teams have high-scoring offenses and questionable defenses, and six of the last eight in the series have gone over the total. Seven of the last 10 Red Raiders games have gone over the total, and 16 of A&M’s last 22 Big 12 games have gone over the total. Texas A&M 35, Texas Tech 30
TEXAS -7 over Baylor
I love taking unranked teams favored at home against ranked opponents, not to mention since this the first time the Longhorns have lost two straight home games since 1997 it’s not likely they’ll make it three in a row. Bears got their sixth win last week to clinch its first bowl bid since 1994, so the sense of urgency rests squarely with Texas this week, and they still have the better players. Texas 35, Baylor 21
Michigan -1 over PENN STATE
The Wolverines are the more explosive team and they’re coming off a bye. Penn State is the most beat up team in the Big Ten not named Purdue and it’s either starting a walk on or a true freshman coming off a concussion at quarterback. Nittany Lions were in a desperate situation last week at Minnesota and got the win, and that’s the situation Michigan finds itself in this week. I am 6-1 ATS picking Michigan games so far this season. Michigan 30, Penn State 20
CHARGERS -3 over Titans
San Diego is 2-5 and favored over the 5-2 Titans? It doesn’t make sense until you look beyond the records. Chargers are #1 in the NFL in total defense, total offense, and sacks. At some point they’re due to stop shooting themselves in the foot and come up with a big win, and they’re in desperation mode this week. Chargers 27, Titans 17
SAINTS pick em over Steelers
Aaron Smith is out for the Steelers, and LaMarr Woodley is banged up. Saints are also in desperation, must-win mode here and I think the defending champs get up for a big game on national television and pull it off. Saints 24, Steelers 20
Best Bet—USC +6.5 over Oregon
The number one team in the nation has gone down three weeks in a row, so don’t be surprised if this is number four. There are two big emotional edges here for the Trojans. First is revenge after the way they were destroyed in Eugene last season. The other is that is their only chance to matter this season, and I suspect they will treat this like the Rose Bowl itself. Monte Kiffin has two weeks to prepare, as he did last year for Tim Tebow and Florida and he darned near shut them down. I don’t expect he’ll be quite as successful against the far more potent Ducks this week, but given how good Matt Barkley is playing he doesn’t have to be, he just needs to slow Oregon down. Ducks have failed to cover their last four as a road favorite in the Pac-10. Keep this in mind about Oregon’s gaudy offensive numbers: they haven’t played a team yet ranked better than 60th in the nation in scoring defense and in their last road game on grass at Arizona State they were forced to punt 11 times. They’re not as potent on grass away from Autzen Stadium. USC 34, Oregon 31
Last week: 4-8 (caught some tough breaks last week losing three covers late in the 4th quarter, and having the Cowboys lose Romo with a 20-7 lead, but no excuses for suckitude even though I just made a few)
Overall: 46-49 (cue up your snarky comments which I would certainly make if I were you)
Best Bets: 4-4
Odds based on opening lines posted at USA Today and home team in all CAPS.
TCU-UNLV under 54.5
This is a look-ahead game for the Horned Frogs with fellow unbeaten Utah on deck. Plus, TCU has allowed a grand total of 14 points in its last four games, which is a big reason why six of its last seven games have gone under the total. TCU 38, UNLV 3
IOWA -6.5 over Michigan State
How often is a top five team undefeated this late in the season a touchdown underdog to a team with two losses? The oddsmakers are trying to tell you something with that spread. This is an ambush situation for the Spartans, who are playing in rarified air they haven’t flown in since “kill, Bubba kill†was being chanted on campus. Michigan State has had a great start, but Iowa plays the same style and has more playmakers and is playing at home in a must-win scenario. Hawkeyes have covered four straight and six of the last seven in this series. Kirk Ferentz is undefeated as a home favorite the week after a home loss. Iowa 31, Michigan State 21
Kansas +19 over IOWA STATE
Trends and talent here favor ISU, who hasn’t beaten the Jayhawks straight up since 2004. However, the situation favors Kansas with the Cyclones coming off a big, emotional win at Texas and probably due to letdown a little bit against an undermanned opponent. Iowa State 31, Kansas 17
MISSISSIPPI +7 over Auburn
Another team in a letdown spot. Tigers are #1 in BCS for first time ever and victories in a slew of emotional games over the past month or so. Meanwhile, the Rebels have been getting better with Jeremiah Masoli settling into the quarterback position, and the fact a team that lost at home to Jacksonville State is only a touchdown underdog to a top-ranked squad speaks volumes about how much the situation favors Ole Miss. Houston Nutt has a track record of upsetting top five teams, and the Rebels are 9-2 ATS in their last 11 as an underdog. Auburn 31, Mississippi 28
Louisville +11 over PITTSBURGH
Cardinals are probably playing the best defense in the Big East right now with shutouts in two of their last three games, and they’ve got the steadier hand at quarterback and the healthier team in this matchup as well. Panthers are just 6-11 ATS in their last 17 games as a home favorite. Louisville 23, Pittsburgh 21
TEXAS A&M-Texas Tech over 57.5
Both teams have high-scoring offenses and questionable defenses, and six of the last eight in the series have gone over the total. Seven of the last 10 Red Raiders games have gone over the total, and 16 of A&M’s last 22 Big 12 games have gone over the total. Texas A&M 35, Texas Tech 30
TEXAS -7 over Baylor
I love taking unranked teams favored at home against ranked opponents, not to mention since this the first time the Longhorns have lost two straight home games since 1997 it’s not likely they’ll make it three in a row. Bears got their sixth win last week to clinch its first bowl bid since 1994, so the sense of urgency rests squarely with Texas this week, and they still have the better players. Texas 35, Baylor 21
Michigan -1 over PENN STATE
The Wolverines are the more explosive team and they’re coming off a bye. Penn State is the most beat up team in the Big Ten not named Purdue and it’s either starting a walk on or a true freshman coming off a concussion at quarterback. Nittany Lions were in a desperate situation last week at Minnesota and got the win, and that’s the situation Michigan finds itself in this week. I am 6-1 ATS picking Michigan games so far this season. Michigan 30, Penn State 20
CHARGERS -3 over Titans
San Diego is 2-5 and favored over the 5-2 Titans? It doesn’t make sense until you look beyond the records. Chargers are #1 in the NFL in total defense, total offense, and sacks. At some point they’re due to stop shooting themselves in the foot and come up with a big win, and they’re in desperation mode this week. Chargers 27, Titans 17
SAINTS pick em over Steelers
Aaron Smith is out for the Steelers, and LaMarr Woodley is banged up. Saints are also in desperation, must-win mode here and I think the defending champs get up for a big game on national television and pull it off. Saints 24, Steelers 20
Best Bet—USC +6.5 over Oregon
The number one team in the nation has gone down three weeks in a row, so don’t be surprised if this is number four. There are two big emotional edges here for the Trojans. First is revenge after the way they were destroyed in Eugene last season. The other is that is their only chance to matter this season, and I suspect they will treat this like the Rose Bowl itself. Monte Kiffin has two weeks to prepare, as he did last year for Tim Tebow and Florida and he darned near shut them down. I don’t expect he’ll be quite as successful against the far more potent Ducks this week, but given how good Matt Barkley is playing he doesn’t have to be, he just needs to slow Oregon down. Ducks have failed to cover their last four as a road favorite in the Pac-10. Keep this in mind about Oregon’s gaudy offensive numbers: they haven’t played a team yet ranked better than 60th in the nation in scoring defense and in their last road game on grass at Arizona State they were forced to punt 11 times. They’re not as potent on grass away from Autzen Stadium. USC 34, Oregon 31
