SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 7
Last week: 5-6
Overall: 35-24 (59%)
Best Bets: 3-3 (50%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
MICHIGANSTATE -3 over Michigan
Sparty’s anemic rushing statistics are concerning, especially given the weak caliber of competition. And Michigan State’s gaudy defensive stats are inflated by that same weak caliber of competition as well. Still, Sparty is coming off a bye week and against the one common opponent each team has played, MSU surrendered only 275 total yards to Notre Dame on the road—a far better effort than the Wolverines had against that same Irish offense. Until Denard Robinson shows he can throw the ball consistently for four quarters against a quality opponent, it’s tough to go with the Wolverines here on the road, where they are just 6-5 since 1989. Sparty makes it four in a row in this series for the first time since JFK was in office. I am 3-3 so far picking Michigan games ATS this season. Michigan State 28, Michigan 21
WISCONSIN-Indiana over 60
The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and the Badgers might get to 60 in this game all by themselves. Wisconsin 58, Indiana 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE +5 over South Carolina
This is a must-win game for the Bulldogs, who haven’t won in this series since 1999, and they should be focused with a bye next week. It’s also the first road start for South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw. Mississippi State 24, South Carolina 21
CINCINNATI -13.5 over Louisville
Bearcats have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings, and should be focused coming off a bye. Cardinals have covered only 5 of their last 19 Big East games. Cincinnati 35, Louisville 17
Florida State -10 over DUKE
Seminoles has E.J. Manuel back at quarterback, and after three straight close losses should vent their frustrations on the Blue Devils, who haven’t been closer than 19 points in this series since FSU joined the ACC. Florida State 34, Duke 13
Oklahoma State -6 over TEXAS
Mack Brown has never lost the week after the Red River Rivalry, but there’s a first time for everything. Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16, and have covered 18 of their last 26 games on the road. Meanwhile, Texas has only covered 5 of their last 16 home games. Oklahoma State is simply too talented here. Oklahoma State 31, Texas 20
Alabama-MISSISSIPPI under 44
Rebels are going with a quarterback making just his second start, and are without four starters on offense—including their top rusher. Seven of the last 10 in this series have gone under. Alabama 31, Mississippi 3
Kansas State-TEXAS TECH over 59
The over has been the play in 35 of the last 51 road games for K-State, the last three meetings, and Red Raiders haven’t scored fewer than 35 points in a game this season. Only one Texas Tech game this season failed to go over, but the Red Raiders still scored 50 points. Texas 34, Kansas State 31
Northwestern +7 over IOWA
Wildcats are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games away from Evanston as an underdog, with seven outright victories, and several of those victories came at the expense of the Hawkeyes. Iowa is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records. Iowa 28, Northwestern 27
Oklahoma -31.5 over KANSAS
Jayhawks are simply the worst BCS conference team not named Minnesota, and one thing we know about Bob Stoops is that if he has the chance to pour it on he does. Kansas has covered just 5 of its last 21 Big 12 games. No FBS team has scored fewer than 42 points against the Jayhawks this season. Oklahoma 56, Kansas 17
Best Bet—Eagles pick over REDSKINS
The season is on the line this week for Philadelphia, and at some point a team this talented has to rise to the occasion. Eagles 24, Redskins 17
Last week: 5-6
Overall: 35-24 (59%)
Best Bets: 3-3 (50%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
MICHIGANSTATE -3 over Michigan
Sparty’s anemic rushing statistics are concerning, especially given the weak caliber of competition. And Michigan State’s gaudy defensive stats are inflated by that same weak caliber of competition as well. Still, Sparty is coming off a bye week and against the one common opponent each team has played, MSU surrendered only 275 total yards to Notre Dame on the road—a far better effort than the Wolverines had against that same Irish offense. Until Denard Robinson shows he can throw the ball consistently for four quarters against a quality opponent, it’s tough to go with the Wolverines here on the road, where they are just 6-5 since 1989. Sparty makes it four in a row in this series for the first time since JFK was in office. I am 3-3 so far picking Michigan games ATS this season. Michigan State 28, Michigan 21
WISCONSIN-Indiana over 60
The over is 9-1 in the last 10 meetings, and the Badgers might get to 60 in this game all by themselves. Wisconsin 58, Indiana 17
MISSISSIPPI STATE +5 over South Carolina
This is a must-win game for the Bulldogs, who haven’t won in this series since 1999, and they should be focused with a bye next week. It’s also the first road start for South Carolina quarterback Connor Shaw. Mississippi State 24, South Carolina 21
CINCINNATI -13.5 over Louisville
Bearcats have covered 11 of the last 15 meetings, and should be focused coming off a bye. Cardinals have covered only 5 of their last 19 Big East games. Cincinnati 35, Louisville 17
Florida State -10 over DUKE
Seminoles has E.J. Manuel back at quarterback, and after three straight close losses should vent their frustrations on the Blue Devils, who haven’t been closer than 19 points in this series since FSU joined the ACC. Florida State 34, Duke 13
Oklahoma State -6 over TEXAS
Mack Brown has never lost the week after the Red River Rivalry, but there’s a first time for everything. Cowboys are 13-3 ATS in their last 16, and have covered 18 of their last 26 games on the road. Meanwhile, Texas has only covered 5 of their last 16 home games. Oklahoma State is simply too talented here. Oklahoma State 31, Texas 20
Alabama-MISSISSIPPI under 44
Rebels are going with a quarterback making just his second start, and are without four starters on offense—including their top rusher. Seven of the last 10 in this series have gone under. Alabama 31, Mississippi 3
Kansas State-TEXAS TECH over 59
The over has been the play in 35 of the last 51 road games for K-State, the last three meetings, and Red Raiders haven’t scored fewer than 35 points in a game this season. Only one Texas Tech game this season failed to go over, but the Red Raiders still scored 50 points. Texas 34, Kansas State 31
Northwestern +7 over IOWA
Wildcats are 12-2 ATS in their last 14 games away from Evanston as an underdog, with seven outright victories, and several of those victories came at the expense of the Hawkeyes. Iowa is just 5-11 ATS in their last 16 against teams with winning records. Iowa 28, Northwestern 27
Oklahoma -31.5 over KANSAS
Jayhawks are simply the worst BCS conference team not named Minnesota, and one thing we know about Bob Stoops is that if he has the chance to pour it on he does. Kansas has covered just 5 of its last 21 Big 12 games. No FBS team has scored fewer than 42 points against the Jayhawks this season. Oklahoma 56, Kansas 17
Best Bet—Eagles pick over REDSKINS
The season is on the line this week for Philadelphia, and at some point a team this talented has to rise to the occasion. Eagles 24, Redskins 17
