SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 6
Last week: 7-5
Overall: 30-18 (63%)
Best Bets: 2-3 (40%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Oklahoma-Texas under 56.5
Both defenses are pretty good, and this is a big stage for the Longhorns’ two young quarterbacks. Look for them to get a bit of a reality check after playing well against out-manned UCLA and Iowa State the past two weeks. Oklahoma 31, Texas 20
SOUTH CAROLINA -19 over Kentucky
Like I said last week, I’m taking every SEC team other than Vanderbilt over Kentucky the rest of the way. South Carolina 38, Kentucky 13
INDIANA +16 over Illinois
Home team has covered 7 of the last 9, and Hoosiers have covered 7 of their last 10 versus teams with winning records—including last week at home versus Penn State. This is a classic sandwich game, with the Illini going on the road after three straight three-point wins at home, and a key game against rival Ohio State next week. Illinois 27, Indiana 20
CLEMSON-Boston College under 55.5
The under is 8-1 in Clemson’s last 9 ACC games, and Boston College will be without star running back Montel Harris. Under has also gone 19-6 in the Eagles’ last 26 games. Clemson 34, Boston College 14
Iowa +2.5 over PENN STATE
Hawkeyes appear to be a young team starting to find themselves, while the Nittany Lions are still searching. Hawkeyes have also won 8 of the last 9 straight up, and the underdog is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Iowa 24, Penn State 20
Missouri +3 over KANSAS STATE
Wildcats have won two straight emotional, fourth quarter games. What do they have in the tank this week? Meanwhile, Missouri is rested and focused coming off a bye, and looking for a benchmark win to reboot its season. Tigers are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games. Missouri 30, Kansas State 24
Michigan-NORTHWESTERN over 59.5
The over is 8-2 in Northwestern’s last 10 home games. Wildcats have one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten, and Michigan one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Improved Wolverine defense is still somewhat unproven being this is the team’s first road game. I am 2-3 ATS picking Michigan games this season. Michigan 35, Northwestern 28
Texas A&M -6.5 over TEXAS TECH
This might be a game for Mike Sherman’s job, and at some point the talented Aggies have to put together four consecutive quarters of good football. Red Raiders are giving up over 220 yards rushing per game, and this is by far the best running game they’ve seen thus far. Texas A&M 40, Texas Tech 28
ARKANSAS -10 over Auburn
Tough consecutive road games for the young Tigers, and Arkansas will be focused coming off a big win with a bye week on deck. Plus, Razorbacks have the revenge factor from last season’s loss. Auburn’s leaky defense will see much better quarterback play this week than they faced versus Stephen Garcia and South Carolina last week. Arkansas 38, Auburn 24
Arizona State-UTAH under 48
The under is 16-7 in Sun Devils’ last 23 road games, and 7-2 in Utah’s last 9 games. Plus, the Utes are playing without their starting quarterback. Arizona State 24, Utah 14
Best Bet—LSU -12 over Florida
This one is pretty simple. The Tigers have perhaps the most talented defense in the country, the Gators are on the road with a true freshman quarterback making his first road start. LSU 28, Florida 10
Last week: 7-5
Overall: 30-18 (63%)
Best Bets: 2-3 (40%)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
Oklahoma-Texas under 56.5
Both defenses are pretty good, and this is a big stage for the Longhorns’ two young quarterbacks. Look for them to get a bit of a reality check after playing well against out-manned UCLA and Iowa State the past two weeks. Oklahoma 31, Texas 20
SOUTH CAROLINA -19 over Kentucky
Like I said last week, I’m taking every SEC team other than Vanderbilt over Kentucky the rest of the way. South Carolina 38, Kentucky 13
INDIANA +16 over Illinois
Home team has covered 7 of the last 9, and Hoosiers have covered 7 of their last 10 versus teams with winning records—including last week at home versus Penn State. This is a classic sandwich game, with the Illini going on the road after three straight three-point wins at home, and a key game against rival Ohio State next week. Illinois 27, Indiana 20
CLEMSON-Boston College under 55.5
The under is 8-1 in Clemson’s last 9 ACC games, and Boston College will be without star running back Montel Harris. Under has also gone 19-6 in the Eagles’ last 26 games. Clemson 34, Boston College 14
Iowa +2.5 over PENN STATE
Hawkeyes appear to be a young team starting to find themselves, while the Nittany Lions are still searching. Hawkeyes have also won 8 of the last 9 straight up, and the underdog is 8-3 in the last 11 meetings. Iowa 24, Penn State 20
Missouri +3 over KANSAS STATE
Wildcats have won two straight emotional, fourth quarter games. What do they have in the tank this week? Meanwhile, Missouri is rested and focused coming off a bye, and looking for a benchmark win to reboot its season. Tigers are 17-8 ATS in their last 25 road games. Missouri 30, Kansas State 24
Michigan-NORTHWESTERN over 59.5
The over is 8-2 in Northwestern’s last 10 home games. Wildcats have one of the worst defenses in the Big Ten, and Michigan one of the league’s most explosive offenses. Improved Wolverine defense is still somewhat unproven being this is the team’s first road game. I am 2-3 ATS picking Michigan games this season. Michigan 35, Northwestern 28
Texas A&M -6.5 over TEXAS TECH
This might be a game for Mike Sherman’s job, and at some point the talented Aggies have to put together four consecutive quarters of good football. Red Raiders are giving up over 220 yards rushing per game, and this is by far the best running game they’ve seen thus far. Texas A&M 40, Texas Tech 28
ARKANSAS -10 over Auburn
Tough consecutive road games for the young Tigers, and Arkansas will be focused coming off a big win with a bye week on deck. Plus, Razorbacks have the revenge factor from last season’s loss. Auburn’s leaky defense will see much better quarterback play this week than they faced versus Stephen Garcia and South Carolina last week. Arkansas 38, Auburn 24
Arizona State-UTAH under 48
The under is 16-7 in Sun Devils’ last 23 road games, and 7-2 in Utah’s last 9 games. Plus, the Utes are playing without their starting quarterback. Arizona State 24, Utah 14
Best Bet—LSU -12 over Florida
This one is pretty simple. The Tigers have perhaps the most talented defense in the country, the Gators are on the road with a true freshman quarterback making his first road start. LSU 28, Florida 10
he has the moral high ground...
