SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 4
Last Week: 4-5
Overall Record: 16-14 (53% winners)
Best Bets: 2-1 (66% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
BOISE STATE -5.5 over Brigham Young
Going right back on the road against a tough opponent after losing to your instate rival is a tough turnaround. Especially when you’re facing a team that has won 88 of its last 91 home games. Boise State 28, BYU 17
FLORIDA STATE -13 over Clemson
This is a massive spread early in the season between top 10 teams, which tells you the wise guys in the desert are begging you to take the Tigers here. Expect one of the best defensive lines in the country to test a young Clemson offensive front. Florida State 38, Clemson 21
TULSA -5.5 over Fresno State
Bulldogs put up 69 points last week, and now go on the road. Tulsa covers about 68% of the time at home. Fresno State has been giving up an average of 38 points per game on the road in its last five away from home. Tulsa 38, Fresno State 28
New Mexico +8.5 over NEW MEXICO STATE
I’d probably take just about any FBS team getting a touchdown or so from New Mexico State, but especially in this spot. The Lobos have lost three straight to their instate rivals, and this is a chance for Bob Davie to put his early stamp on the program. The underdog has covered four straight in this series. New Mexico 24, New Mexico State 20
Maryland-WEST VIRGINIA over 61
The over has been the play in this series 5 of the last 6 meetings. The over has been the play in 7 of Maryland’s last 8 non-conference games, and 10 of the Mountaineers’ last 13 games overall. Oh, and West Virginia averages 55 points per game all by itself. West Virginia 45, Maryland 23
WASHINGTON STATE -17 over Colorado
The last two weeks the Buffaloes have lost to FCS Sacramento State at home and was blown out by 55 points by Fresno State. Colorado has only covered 2 of its last 13 games. Washington State 49, Colorado 17
WAKE FOREST -7 over Army
Army has covered just 2 of its last 8 road games, and is only covering about 31% of the time against good teams. Meanwhile, you have to think the Demon Deacons will want to bounce back after last week’s debacle in Tallahassee. Wake Forest 35, Army 21
OKLAHOMA -17 over Kansas State
Perhaps we overreacted a tad to the Sooners struggling at UTEP in the opener, and K-State blasting a Miami program going nowhere two weeks ago? This spread seems to indicate the wise guys in the desert think so, and I usually defer to their expertise. Last year Oklahoma proved its superiority by winning, 58-17, in Manhattan. Landry Jones almost always plays like an All-American at home. Oklahoma hasn’t scored fewer than 31 points against the Wildcats since the 2003 Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma 45, Kansas State 21
Michigan +6.5 over NOTRE DAME
Only five times since 1981 has the opening line favorite managed to cover the spread in this series, which has been a decidedly pro-underdog series. For example, the Wolverines have been an underdog the past three years, and won all three games outright. I also think you’ll see Denard Robinson determined to perform better here than he did in the season-opening primetime debacle against Alabama. I am 3-0 ATS on Michigan games so far this season. Michigan 28, Notre Dame 24
BEST BET—Arizona-OREGON over 76.5
23 of Oregon’s last 30 home games (77%) have gone over the total. 23 of Oregon’s last 31 conference games (74%) have gone over the total. Both teams are averaging over 45 points per game. 5 of the last 6 meetings have gone over the total. I’m sensing a trend here. Oregon 49, Arizona 31
Last Week: 4-5
Overall Record: 16-14 (53% winners)
Best Bets: 2-1 (66% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
BOISE STATE -5.5 over Brigham Young
Going right back on the road against a tough opponent after losing to your instate rival is a tough turnaround. Especially when you’re facing a team that has won 88 of its last 91 home games. Boise State 28, BYU 17
FLORIDA STATE -13 over Clemson
This is a massive spread early in the season between top 10 teams, which tells you the wise guys in the desert are begging you to take the Tigers here. Expect one of the best defensive lines in the country to test a young Clemson offensive front. Florida State 38, Clemson 21
TULSA -5.5 over Fresno State
Bulldogs put up 69 points last week, and now go on the road. Tulsa covers about 68% of the time at home. Fresno State has been giving up an average of 38 points per game on the road in its last five away from home. Tulsa 38, Fresno State 28
New Mexico +8.5 over NEW MEXICO STATE
I’d probably take just about any FBS team getting a touchdown or so from New Mexico State, but especially in this spot. The Lobos have lost three straight to their instate rivals, and this is a chance for Bob Davie to put his early stamp on the program. The underdog has covered four straight in this series. New Mexico 24, New Mexico State 20
Maryland-WEST VIRGINIA over 61
The over has been the play in this series 5 of the last 6 meetings. The over has been the play in 7 of Maryland’s last 8 non-conference games, and 10 of the Mountaineers’ last 13 games overall. Oh, and West Virginia averages 55 points per game all by itself. West Virginia 45, Maryland 23
WASHINGTON STATE -17 over Colorado
The last two weeks the Buffaloes have lost to FCS Sacramento State at home and was blown out by 55 points by Fresno State. Colorado has only covered 2 of its last 13 games. Washington State 49, Colorado 17
WAKE FOREST -7 over Army
Army has covered just 2 of its last 8 road games, and is only covering about 31% of the time against good teams. Meanwhile, you have to think the Demon Deacons will want to bounce back after last week’s debacle in Tallahassee. Wake Forest 35, Army 21
OKLAHOMA -17 over Kansas State
Perhaps we overreacted a tad to the Sooners struggling at UTEP in the opener, and K-State blasting a Miami program going nowhere two weeks ago? This spread seems to indicate the wise guys in the desert think so, and I usually defer to their expertise. Last year Oklahoma proved its superiority by winning, 58-17, in Manhattan. Landry Jones almost always plays like an All-American at home. Oklahoma hasn’t scored fewer than 31 points against the Wildcats since the 2003 Big 12 Championship Game. Oklahoma 45, Kansas State 21
Michigan +6.5 over NOTRE DAME
Only five times since 1981 has the opening line favorite managed to cover the spread in this series, which has been a decidedly pro-underdog series. For example, the Wolverines have been an underdog the past three years, and won all three games outright. I also think you’ll see Denard Robinson determined to perform better here than he did in the season-opening primetime debacle against Alabama. I am 3-0 ATS on Michigan games so far this season. Michigan 28, Notre Dame 24
BEST BET—Arizona-OREGON over 76.5
23 of Oregon’s last 30 home games (77%) have gone over the total. 23 of Oregon’s last 31 conference games (74%) have gone over the total. Both teams are averaging over 45 points per game. 5 of the last 6 meetings have gone over the total. I’m sensing a trend here. Oregon 49, Arizona 31
