Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks - Week 4

S

SteveDeace

Well-Known Member
LEAD PIPE LOCKS & STONE COLD UPSETS—WEEK 4

Last week: 6-6
Overall: 17-15 (53%)
Best Bets: 2-1 (66%)

All odds based on opening lines and home team in all CAPS

BOSTON COLLEGE +3.5 over Virginia Tech
All the trends here favor the Hokies, who have covered an impressive 22 of their last 31 road games. However, star tailback Ryan Williams is out this week for Virginia Tech, and this game is also the first real “get up†game for the Eagles. Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 22

MICHIGAN -23 over Bowling Green
Falcons are playing with a backup quarterback making his first collegiate start on the road in front of a 100,000 fans, and he’s going up against a defense that was “terrible†last week by their own evaluation. Oh, and they don’t have an answer for Denard Robinson, either. Michigan 45, Bowling Green 14

ARKANSAS-Alabama OVER 54
This is a big step up in competition for both teams, but Alabama’s young secondary has built gaudy numbers against San Jose State, Penn State’s freshman quarterback making his first road start, and Duke. They will get a far stiffer test against Ryan Mallett on the road. Razorbacks also have some momentum coming off their biggest road win in the SEC since Darren McFadden was still in uniform. On the other hand, their defense probably isn’t prepared for the awesome balance of the Crimson Tide offense. Alabama 33, Arkansas 27

Temple +17 over PENN STATE
This game could be an audition for Owls Coach Al Golden, a former Penn State player who is doing a terrific job at Temple. Owls are off to their best start since 1979, plus this is a look-ahead game for the Nittany Lions. Penn State 28, Temple 17

NOTRE DAME +3.5 over Stanford
I can’t remember the last time the Irish were an underdog at home to Stanford, or if it’s ever happened at all. Notre Dame has lost six straight decided by a touchdown or less, so sooner or later you have to figure they’re due. Irish are 7-2 ATS in this series as of late, and the Cardinal’s top wide receiver is out for the game. Notre Dame 27, Stanford 26

CINCINNATI +17 over Oklahoma
So far in his career Landry Jones hasn’t been as good away from Norman as he is at home, and this is a look-ahead game for the Sooners. Oklahoma has covered just one of its last six road games. Oklahoma 31, Cincinnati 21

South Carolina +2.5 over AUBURN
The Gamecocks only road win in this series came way back in 1933, so they’ve been waiting a long time for the next one. The wait is about over. The Tigers are coming off two consecutive physical games, and are just 7-16 as a home favorite recently. Steve Spurrier is 9-4 ATS as a road dog in the SEC. South Carolina 21, Auburn 14

BOISE STATE -16.5 over Oregon State
Broncos haven’t lost a regular season home game since 2001. First year quarterback Ryan Katz continues to struggle for Oregon State, and the Broncos know this could be their final shot to make a statement to the nation. Boise State is 37-16 ATS as a home favorite since 2000 and Beavers are 7-20 in September under Mike Riley. Boise State 38, Oregon State 17

LOUISIANA TECH +6 over Southern Mississippi
Letdown alert here for the Eagles, and the Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven as a home underdog as well as eight of their last nine against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech 23, Southern Mississippi 21

BEST BET—Ball State +28 over IOWA
This is a classic sandwich game for the Hawkeyes, coming off a loss to Arizona with a Big Ten opener versus Penn State looming. The Cardinals are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games, and are 10-3 as a double digit road dog since 2005. Iowa 31, Ball State 14





 
SteveDeace said:
LEAD PIPE LOCKS & STONE COLD UPSETS—WEEK 4

Last week: 6-6
Overall: 17-15 (53%)
Best Bets: 2-1 (66%)

All odds based on opening lines and home team in all CAPS

BOSTON COLLEGE +3.5 over Virginia Tech
All the trends here favor the Hokies, who have covered an impressive 22 of their last 31 road games. However, star tailback Ryan Williams is out this week for Virginia Tech, and this game is also the first real “get up†game for the Eagles. Boston College 24, Virginia Tech 22

MICHIGAN -23 over Bowling Green
Falcons are playing with a backup quarterback making his first collegiate start on the road in front of a 100,000 fans, and he’s going up against a defense that was “terrible†last week by their own evaluation. Oh, and they don’t have an answer for Denard Robinson, either. Michigan 45, Bowling Green 14

ARKANSAS-Alabama OVER 54
This is a big step up in competition for both teams, but Alabama’s young secondary has built gaudy numbers against San Jose State, Penn State’s freshman quarterback making his first road start, and Duke. They will get a far stiffer test against Ryan Mallett on the road. Razorbacks also have some momentum coming off their biggest road win in the SEC since Darren McFadden was still in uniform. On the other hand, their defense probably isn’t prepared for the awesome balance of the Crimson Tide offense. Alabama 33, Arkansas 27

Temple +17 over PENN STATE
This game could be an audition for Owls Coach Al Golden, a former Penn State player who is doing a terrific job at Temple. Owls are off to their best start since 1979, plus this is a look-ahead game for the Nittany Lions. Penn State 28, Temple 17

NOTRE DAME +3.5 over Stanford
I can’t remember the last time the Irish were an underdog at home to Stanford, or if it’s ever happened at all. Notre Dame has lost six straight decided by a touchdown or less, so sooner or later you have to figure they’re due. Irish are 7-2 ATS in this series as of late, and the Cardinal’s top wide receiver is out for the game. Notre Dame 27, Stanford 26

CINCINNATI +17 over Oklahoma
So far in his career Landry Jones hasn’t been as good away from Norman as he is at home, and this is a look-ahead game for the Sooners. Oklahoma has covered just one of its last six road games. Oklahoma 31, Cincinnati 21

South Carolina +2.5 over AUBURN
The Gamecocks only road win in this series came way back in 1933, so they’ve been waiting a long time for the next one. The wait is about over. The Tigers are coming off two consecutive physical games, and are just 7-16 as a home favorite recently. Steve Spurrier is 9-4 ATS as a road dog in the SEC. South Carolina 21, Auburn 14

BOISE STATE -16.5 over Oregon State
Broncos haven’t lost a regular season home game since 2001. First year quarterback Ryan Katz continues to struggle for Oregon State, and the Broncos know this could be their final shot to make a statement to the nation. Boise State is 37-16 ATS as a home favorite since 2000 and Beavers are 7-20 in September under Mike Riley. Boise State 38, Oregon State 17

LOUISIANA TECH +6 over Southern Mississippi
Letdown alert here for the Eagles, and the Bulldogs have covered six of their last seven as a home underdog as well as eight of their last nine against teams with a winning record. Louisiana Tech 23, Southern Mississippi 21

BEST BET—Ball State +28 over IOWA
This is a classic sandwich game for the Hawkeyes, coming off a loss to Arizona with a Big Ten opener versus Penn State looming. The Cardinals are 18-7 ATS in their last 25 road games, and are 10-3 as a double digit road dog since 2005. Iowa 31, Ball State 14





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Loving the Ball State, ND and Mich picks. Sure hope Iowa throttles tomorrow though
 
I am ON the teams I am ON below. Using Danny Sheridan's Opening Odds.

ON VA TECH -3.5@ boston college
ON KANSAS STATE -4.5 vs ucf
ON TEXAS -14.5 vs ucla
ON GEORGIA +2 @ miss state
ON LSU -6.5 vs west virginia
 
what the heck - I'll throw some of mine from the web site I look at. IIRC they are locked at these spreads from Wed afternoon.

Northwestern -7.5
South Carolina +2.5
LSU -8.5
Cal +6.5
Oregon - 10.5
 
Steve,
I'm not a gambler, but according to my math you were 4-8 last week not 6-6. You sir are a fraud.

Steves picks last week, final scores in bold.

Massachusetts +21 over MICHIGAN Win Mich 42-- Mass 37
Classic letdown spot here for the Wolverines coming off two consecutive emotional wins on national television and needing to rest some guys, especially Denard Robinson. Expect a somewhat sluggish effort. Michigan 38, Massachusetts 21

SOUTHERN MISSISSIPPI -4 over Kansas Win SMiss 31 -- Kansas 16
The Golden Eagles are 5-1 ATS in their last six home games. When a Conference USA team is favored over a Big 12 squad, especially one that just defeated a ranked BCS conference team at home, you have to take notice. Southern Mississippi 24, Kansas 14

GEORGIA -3 over Arkansas Loss Ark 31 -- Georgia 24
The Bulldogs looked horrible last week and are unranked. Arkansas is ranked with a quarterback being talked about as a top 10 NFL draft pick. Yet Georgia is the favorite? Somebody knows something I don’t know. All the trends favor Arkansas, especially Georgia covering just 10 of their last 28 home games as a favorite, but the Dawgs will be desperate to avoid the 0-2 start in the SEC. Georgia 27, Arkansas 21

NORTH CAROLINA -1 over Georgia Tech Loss GT 30-- NC 24
I typically love one point favorites at home, but especially when they’re coming off a bye week and it’s the second straight road game for the opponent. Tar Heels are expected to get some of their suspended players back this week. North Carolina 27, Georgia Tech 20

Maryland +13 over WEST VIRGINA Loss WV 31 -- MD 17
Under Bill Stewart the Mountaineers are just 2-11 ATS as a favorite and have covered just two of their last nine at home. Maryland already has three tailbacks that have rushed for 100 yards this season. West Virginia 21, Maryland 17

MINNESOTA +13.5 over Southern California Win USC 32 -- MN 21
This is a spread that doesn’t make sense when you consider how bad the Gophers are. But if you look closer you see a Trojan squad leading the nation in penalties, and USC is just 1-8 ATS on the road recently and just 5-12 in their last 17 on the road as a double-digit favorite. Minnesota 23, USC 21

WASHINGTON +4 over Nebraska Loss Neb 56 -- Wash 21
A top 10 team is only a four point favorite against an unranked team? Washington has played by far the tougher schedule so far, and it’s the first road start for Taylor Martinez. Husker defense will be tested by Jake Locker, and Washington has covered last three games at home versus ranked teams. Nebraska is just 2-3 ATS in its last five road games, and didn’t cover either of its two home games to open 2010. Washington 24, Nebraska 23

Notre Dame +3 over MICHIGAN STATE Loss MSU 34 -- ND 31
Spartans haven’t failed to cover in this series since 2004, but Brian Kelly coached teams are an astounding 12-1 ATS as an underdog. Speaking of Kelly, he was bypassed for the Michigan State job, and is coaching in his home state as the Notre Dame field general for the first time so you can expect him to have his team prepared. Notre Dame 26, Michigan State 24

TEXAS TECH +4 over Texas Loss TX 24 -- TTech 14
Last time the Longhorns ventured to Lubbock in 2008 it cost them a shot at the national title. Texas Tech has covered every game as a home underdog since 2005. Texas has covered just seven of its last 21 games and just seven of its last 19 as a favorite. This is a tough spot for the Longhorns’ new quarterback to make his first road start in primetime. Texas Tech 27, Texas 17

Mississippi State +8.5 over LSU Loss LSU 29 -- MSS 7
Strictly a trend pick here, because the Tigers have covered just two of their last 20 games in the SEC at home. That stat is not a misprint. Bulldogs have covered their last two visits to Baton Rouge. Revenge spot for MSU as well after last year’s goal line stand by LSU cost them the game. LSU 20, Mississippi State 14

ARIZONA+1 over Iowa Win Arizona 34 -- Iowa 27
Arizona still has yet to allow a touchdown, and the Hawkeyes’ defense is terrific. Time change here could be an issue with the late start working against Iowa. It’s been several years since Wildcats hosted a game between two ranked teams, and Arizona Coach Mike Stoops is a former Hawkeye player, so home team should be pumped up—especially after last year’s loss in Iowa City. Trends favor both teams here. Iowa has covered eight straight home games and are 12-3 ATS as an underdog (including 5-0 last year). Meanwhile, Arizona is 13-4 ATS at home since 2007. Iowa has not beaten a ranked non-conference foe on the road since 1976, and its respected defensive coordinator Norm Parker is staying before for health reasons. Arizona 22, Iowa 20

Best Bet—OREGON STATE -16 over Louisville Loss OSU 35 -- LOU 28
Beavers have had a week off to stew over the loss to TCU, and Louisville has covered just four of its last 14 road games. Oregon State is 10-1 ATS in its last 11 games as a double digit home favorite, and are clearly the better team, especially with a young Cardinals squad making the cross-country trip. Oregon State 37, Louisville 10
 
after an Iowa win, with style points, I hope for a Notre Dame loss. An ISU loss would be welcome but a ND loss seems more likely.
 
Duff, I'm with you here. I don't want to golf with Steve if this is how he keeps score. I've defended Steve on these for a few weeks but I don't want him booking my games if this is how he keeps track. Deace I'm calling you out on your private education only mentality if basic math has alluded you.
 
I'm thinking it goes beyond simple math here.

Kinda makes you wonder what other things he's being disingenuous about...
 
You're right...I'm a fraud...I've been caught miscalculating my record one time in four years on something there is a permanent record of while I was on vacation and doing this off the top of my head from a terminal at O'Hare yesterday...if that makes me a fraud, so be it, I'll own up to it.

Actually, I am flattered that you thought enough of my picks to go back and dig up that old thread...oh, and I was 5-7...I count pushes as wins since I'm not paying a bookie...that makes my record 16-16 for the year so far.

Don't you think if I intended to mislead people I might actually exaggerate by more than a 53% winning percentage? Why lie about that?

Regarding UNI-Iowa State, one offshore place I saw had the Cyclones by 11.
 
Steve,
You must remember, for many Iowa fans, the season is over given last week's loss. Now, the only victories come in the form of finding shortcomings in message board posts. :)
 
He pretends to be a white, angry straight, conservative, monogomous, Christian, man. He's just the opposite. He does all that for the $.

Steve is disingenuous about everything in his life. His real name probably isn't even Steve.

drip
drip
d
.r
..i
...p

s..a..r..c..a..s..m


Although, I do not understand how a "push" can be a "win".

Ok, maybe he really is a fraud.
 
A push is a push.


Accepting a push as a WIN is false reality. lol


That is pretty silly. Professional handicappers have 3 columns in there record.

WIN- LOSS- PUSH

not

WIN- LOSS- ehhhh, I pushed, its a win



Not that I care- handicapping is a topic that tickles my fancy..... wanted to comment. ;)
 
TalkHawk said:
A push is a push.


Accepting a push as a WIN is false reality. lol


That is pretty silly. Professional handicappers have 3 columns in there record.

WIN- LOSS- PUSH

not

WIN- LOSS- ehhhh, I pushed, its a win



Not that I care- handicapping is a topic that tickles my fancy..... wanted to comment. ;)
Click to expand...

Hey, the man didn't lose!!!!!!!!!!!! ha
 
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