Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks - Week 2

SteveDeace

Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets and Lead Pipe Locks – Week 2

Last week: 6-4
Overall: 6-4 (60% winners)
Best Bets: 1-0

Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.

Georgia Tech -12.5 over KANSAS
The Jayhawks have failed to cover their last four home games, and are coming off an ugly 6-3 home loss to FCS North Dakota State that resulted in the athletic director instantly retiring and more turmoil. They also have just one week to prepare for the Yellow Jackets’ triple option attack. Paul Johnson is 9-2 ATS on the road, including 5-0 as a road favorite, since taking over at Georgia Tech. Georgia Tech 31, Kansas 14

CALIFORNIA -7 over Colorado
Since 2005 the Buffaloes are just 7-16 as a road underdog, and they’re on the road following a big, emotional win over instate rival Colorado State . The Bears are 12-5 as a home favorite as of late. California 27, Colorado 17

Arkansas-LOUISIANA-MONROE over 59
This game is technically a road game for the Razorbacks, but it’s being played in Little Rock where they play two home dates a year so they’ll have the crowd. Warhawks return just 10 starters and are playing their first game under a new coach, while Bobby Petrino is 8-2 at Arkansas at home. However, I still question the Arkansas defense, so laying a number that big is precarious. Plus, with two straight SEC games coming up following this one, Razorbacks will look to take their starters out in the second half. Arkansas 49, Louisiana-Monroe 17

Iowa State-IOWA under 45
This matchup has gone under the total the last six years in a row, and the Cyclones haven’t scored an offensive touchdown versus Iowa since 2006. Hawkeyes have a pretty big talent edge here, especially on defense, but all the trends favor Iowa State , which has covered five straight and eight of the past nine in the series. That tells me that this game will again go under the total as the Cyclones play physical and keep the score down before finally succumbing to Iowa ’s size in the end. Iowa 27, Iowa State 13


UCLA +8 over Stanford
Bruins actually played pretty well last week at Kansas State when you consider the injury issues they had in fall camp, but they couldn’t stop Daniel Thomas. Problem for Stanford is that Toby Gerhart is now in the NFL, and they don’t have that sort of running game. Jim Harbaugh is just 5-11 ATS on the road at Stanford, while UCLA has won the last six in this series by an average of 12 points per game. Bruins are 27-10 at ATS at the Rose Bowl since 2004. UCLA 28, Stanford 27

USC -18.5 over Virginia
Tough road trip for undermanned Cavaliers, and you have to think USC defense will have something to prove after last week’s performance. This is the home debut for Lane Kiffin and the only home game this month for the Trojans, so expect them to be fired up. USC has won its last six home openers by an average of 46.7 points per game. USC 42, Virginia 20

ALABAMA -11 over Penn State
The first chance for the defending national champions to make a splash on national television, and they’re going up against a true freshman quarterback in primetime? Penn State is just 1-4 in its last five games against top 10 teams. This has ambush written all over it. Alabama 28, Penn State 10

Michigan +4.5 over NOTRE DAME
Both teams are coming off impressive openers, although Michigan probably played the better opponent. Rich Rodriguez is three years into his rebuilding job, while Brian Kelly is just beginning his, which should give the Wolverines an edge. Both teams’ strengths play to the other’s weakness, but all the trends here favor Michigan . The underdog has covered five of the last six and six of the last eight in this rivalry. Notre Dame is just 6-17 ATS as a home favorite recently. Michigan 28, Notre Dame 21

Best Bet— WASHINGTON -11 over Syracuse
The once proud Orangemen have won just four of their last 31 road games. Washington is 5-2 ATS at home so far under Steve Sarkisian, and should be fired up to get their first win after last week’s tough loss at BYU. Meanwhile, Syracuse opened up strong but now makes the tough, cross-country road trip to play outdoors with a beat up football team. Washington 34, Syracuse 13

Jon, for KXNO this week I am playing these 7 games

Steve Last Week: 4-3 (1-0 on best bets)
Jon Last Week: 3-4 (0-1 on best bets)

UCLA +8 over Stanford
USC -18.5 over Virginia
Arkansas-Louisiana Monroe OVER 59
California -7 over Colorado
Alabama -11 over Penn State
Georgia Tech -12.5 over Kansas
Washington -11 over Syracuse (best bet)


http://twitter.com/deaceradio
 


"but all the trends favor Iowa State , which has covered five straight and eight of the past nine in the series."

I assume you meant to say five straight on the road in this series or something, because no way the spread was greater than 32 in last year's game.

I agree with your UCLA-Stanford assessment, I think UCLA is being overlooked in that one. And how is Georgia Tech only a 12.5 point favorite @ Kansas? That seems awfully low. I would take Ga Tech there for sure too.
 


Everybody is liking UCLA, that line is already down to 5. I disagree though, I think Stanford will win by double digits. UCLA has a lot of offensive line issues and you have to be able to put up points to beat Stanford.
 


Since I'm not a gambler, I'm fine with ISU covering the spread as long as Iowa wins.

Steve, I just caught a little of the show this morning (normally I listen to the podcast; you or Jim really need to figure out how to work that thing). I loved your observation that it was almost less fun to watch as expectations go up. That is so true; right now I'm just wanting to get thru another week with a W.
 




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