SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 13
Last week: 6-4
Overall: 71-51 (58% winners)
Best Bets: 8-4 (66% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
TEXAS A&M -7.5 over Texas
Home team has covered 10 of the last 13, and this could also be the last time the Aggies get to hook the Horns in College Station for the foreseeable future. Texas A&M rolls in Big 12 sendoff. Texas A&M 31, Texas 17
Iowa-NEBRASKA under 53.5
The under is 5-1 in the Huskers last six games, and the under has been a 68% proposition in Iowa road games since 2006. Kirk Ferentz likes to keep it conservative on the road, especially in a tough road environment for a young quarterback. Nebraska 27, Iowa 17
TULSA +3 over Houston
Forgotten in the Houston hoopla has been the fact Tulsa is undefeated in Conference USA as well, and quarterback G.J. Kinne is good, too. Golden Hurricanes have covered 16 of their last 21 home games (76%). This is also third road game in four weeks for the Cougars. Tulsa 38, Houston 37
Arkansas +14 over LSU
That’s just too many points in this game, and the line is an overreaction to Arkansas’ blowout loss at Alabama earlier in the season. Razorbacks are much improved since then, especially on defense. Going back 40 years, LSU is one of the best propositions at home under the lights, but this game will be played in mid-afternoon. Bobby Petrino is a 75% proposition against the spread in SEC games. LSU 27, Arkansas 23
Ohio State-MICHIGAN under 45
10 of the Buckeyes’ last 15 road games have gone under, and the biggest challenges in this game will still be each team’s offense against the other’s defense. Look for the Michigan defense to really play with a chip on its shoulder. I am 6-5 picking Michigan games ATS this season. Michigan 23, Ohio State 13
MINNESOTA +12.5 over Illinois
Almost as if the Zooker was making a public plea to be put out of his misery, he starts playing rotisserie quarterback last week to thwart his own team’s chances at pulling a job-saving upset. Look for his players to respond in kind this week, because they want to be put out of their misery as well. Minnesota 21, Illinois 20
VIRGINIA +5.5 over Virginia Tech
The Hokies might be the least impressive 10-1 team from an AQ conference I have ever seen, and Mike London has the Cavaliers rolling right now. Hokies are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine on grass, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall. Virginia 21, Virginia Tech 17
Alabama -19 over AUBURN
That is a lot of points to lay on the road, but the Crimson Tide have the better team, are playing for revenge, and also playing for a shot at the national title. Every factor in this game favors Alabama, which has given on average 8 points per game since Cam Newton’s comeback in Tuscaloosa last year. Nick Saban has covered 68% of his road games. Alabama 35, Auburn 10
WASHINGTON -6.5 over Washington State
Cougars go on the road in the Apple Cup without their starting quarterback, and Keith Price is expected to be full speed for the Huskies. With a win here Washington would actually finish with a better record than it had last season with Jake Locker. Washington 28, Washington State 17
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 over Clemson
The Gamecocks haven’t won 10 games in a season since 1984, so attempting to make history while playing at home in a rivalry game is a lot of motivation. The Tigers have been struggling in November, and still have next week’s ACC title tilt on deck. South Carolina 31, Clemson 24
Best Bet—NORTHWESTERN +7 over Michigan State
Sparty is playing for nothing, and this is a look-ahead game to the Big Ten Championship next week to boot. Northwestern’s defense is improving, allowing just 15 points per game the past three weeks. It’s Dan Persa’s last home game, and the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Northwestern 24, Michigan State 23
Last week: 6-4
Overall: 71-51 (58% winners)
Best Bets: 8-4 (66% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
TEXAS A&M -7.5 over Texas
Home team has covered 10 of the last 13, and this could also be the last time the Aggies get to hook the Horns in College Station for the foreseeable future. Texas A&M rolls in Big 12 sendoff. Texas A&M 31, Texas 17
Iowa-NEBRASKA under 53.5
The under is 5-1 in the Huskers last six games, and the under has been a 68% proposition in Iowa road games since 2006. Kirk Ferentz likes to keep it conservative on the road, especially in a tough road environment for a young quarterback. Nebraska 27, Iowa 17
TULSA +3 over Houston
Forgotten in the Houston hoopla has been the fact Tulsa is undefeated in Conference USA as well, and quarterback G.J. Kinne is good, too. Golden Hurricanes have covered 16 of their last 21 home games (76%). This is also third road game in four weeks for the Cougars. Tulsa 38, Houston 37
Arkansas +14 over LSU
That’s just too many points in this game, and the line is an overreaction to Arkansas’ blowout loss at Alabama earlier in the season. Razorbacks are much improved since then, especially on defense. Going back 40 years, LSU is one of the best propositions at home under the lights, but this game will be played in mid-afternoon. Bobby Petrino is a 75% proposition against the spread in SEC games. LSU 27, Arkansas 23
Ohio State-MICHIGAN under 45
10 of the Buckeyes’ last 15 road games have gone under, and the biggest challenges in this game will still be each team’s offense against the other’s defense. Look for the Michigan defense to really play with a chip on its shoulder. I am 6-5 picking Michigan games ATS this season. Michigan 23, Ohio State 13
MINNESOTA +12.5 over Illinois
Almost as if the Zooker was making a public plea to be put out of his misery, he starts playing rotisserie quarterback last week to thwart his own team’s chances at pulling a job-saving upset. Look for his players to respond in kind this week, because they want to be put out of their misery as well. Minnesota 21, Illinois 20
VIRGINIA +5.5 over Virginia Tech
The Hokies might be the least impressive 10-1 team from an AQ conference I have ever seen, and Mike London has the Cavaliers rolling right now. Hokies are just 1-8 ATS in their last nine on grass, and 2-8 ATS in their last 10 overall. Virginia 21, Virginia Tech 17
Alabama -19 over AUBURN
That is a lot of points to lay on the road, but the Crimson Tide have the better team, are playing for revenge, and also playing for a shot at the national title. Every factor in this game favors Alabama, which has given on average 8 points per game since Cam Newton’s comeback in Tuscaloosa last year. Nick Saban has covered 68% of his road games. Alabama 35, Auburn 10
WASHINGTON -6.5 over Washington State
Cougars go on the road in the Apple Cup without their starting quarterback, and Keith Price is expected to be full speed for the Huskies. With a win here Washington would actually finish with a better record than it had last season with Jake Locker. Washington 28, Washington State 17
SOUTH CAROLINA -2.5 over Clemson
The Gamecocks haven’t won 10 games in a season since 1984, so attempting to make history while playing at home in a rivalry game is a lot of motivation. The Tigers have been struggling in November, and still have next week’s ACC title tilt on deck. South Carolina 31, Clemson 24
Best Bet—NORTHWESTERN +7 over Michigan State
Sparty is playing for nothing, and this is a look-ahead game to the Big Ten Championship next week to boot. Northwestern’s defense is improving, allowing just 15 points per game the past three weeks. It’s Dan Persa’s last home game, and the underdog is 7-2 ATS in the last 9 meetings. Northwestern 24, Michigan State 23
