SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 12
Last week: 5-8
Overall: 63-68
Best Bets: 6-5
Odds based on opening lines posted online at USA Today.com and home team is in all CAPS.
WASHINGTON -3 over UCLA
Huskies are the more desperate team here, losing four of five and three in a row. Jake Locker is back at quarterback for an emotional senior night, and a win keeps Washington’s fledgling bowl hopes alive. Washington 28, UCLA 21
Fresno State-BOISE STATE over 64.5
Three of the last four in this series have gone over the total. Fresno State is actually averaging more points per game on the road this season, but surrenders 38 points per game as well. Last three games for Bulldogs, and four of the last five, have gone over. Boise State 52, Fresno State 21
Purdue-MICHIGAN STATE under 47.5
Boilermakers have yet to score more than 20 points in a Big Ten game, and 40 of their last 59 Big Ten games have gone under the total. Purdue’s offense is averaging 10.5 points per game on the road this season. Michigan State 31, Purdue 10
Wisconsin-MICHIGAN over 66
Perhaps the two best offenses in the Big Ten Conference, and neither defense is equipped to match up in this matchup. Michigan physically cannot stand up to the Badgers at the point of attack, while Wisconsin will get exposed in space versus the quicker Wolverines. Two disturbing trends here for the Wolverines: Michigan has failed to cover 11 straight Big Ten games, and is 2-19 ATS in their last 21. I am 7-3 picking Michigan games ATS this season. Wisconsin 38, Michigan 31
KANSAS +22 over Oklahoma State
This is a total look-ahead game here for Cowboys, who are coming off big wins versus Baylor and Texas and have arch-rival Oklahoma for the Big 12 South title on deck. Jayhawks easily covered on the road at Nebraska last week in a tougher spot. Oklahoma State 38, Kansas 21
SOUTH FLORIDA +3 over Pittsburgh
I just don’t trust Dave Wannstedt to get his team ready in these situations, and the Bulls have momentum with a three-game winning streak. Pitt just lost in this exact same spot last week at UCONN. South Florida 24, Pittsburgh 21
COLORADO +3.5 over Kansas State
Home team has covered six of the last eight. Aside from taking advantage of four Texas interceptions to beat the struggling Longhorns, K-State has lost three of its last four games and its only real road win this season was at Kansas. Colorado 27, Kansas State 23
ILLINOIS -7.5 over Northwestern
Redemption and urgency on the side of the Illini here, who need this win for bowl eligibility with a tough road game at Fresno State still on deck. Wildcats are already bowl-bound and got their now annual win over Iowa last week, but it cost them star quarterback Dan Persa. Illinois 28, Northwestern 17
Ohio State -3 over IOWA
Since losing to Iowa in 2004, the Buckeyes have covered 70% of their games. And get this, Ohio State has won eight straight November road games, is 27-4 in November under Jim Tressel, and have won nine straight against Big Ten teams that were in BCS bowls the previous season. Eight of those wins were by more than a touchdown. Ohio State 27, Iowa 21
MIAMI +2 over Virginia Tech
I’ve picked against the Hokies four times this season, and have lost all four. Some say it’s crazy to keep doing it, but I say I’m bound to be right one of these times. Hurricanes have pride to play for after quitting in Blacksburg last season, and freshman quarterback Stephen Morris has been a revelation. Miami 23, Virginia Tech 21
IOWA STATE +12 over Missouri
Even without their starting quarterback the Cyclones still have more to play for here, being one win away from a bowl game while Mizzou is basically locked into its fate. Tigers are 1-6 ATS last seven as a favorite. ISU has been solid under Rhoads as an underdog, especially at home at night, and has covered four of the last five in this series. Missouri 28, Iowa State 21
MARYLAND +6 over Florida State
Seminoles have failed to cover last their four games, while the Terps have covered four straight. Maryland has covered the last two in the series, and is better at protecting the football. Maryland 27, Florida State 24
DOLPHINS pick over Bears
It’s the 25th anniversary of the 1985 classic between these two teams, and while the Bears are playing well Miami is more desperate for the win here in the tough AFC East. Don’t let the Dolphins playing their third string quarterback fool you, because he’s probably the most talented of the three. Dolphins 24, Bears 20
SAINTS -11.5 over Seahawks
It’s the second straight road game for Seattle, which is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 versus teams with winning records and 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games. New Orleans is getting healthier, and should get a boost by the return of Reggie Bush. Saints 31, Seahawks 17
Best Bet—CALIFORNIA +8 over Stanford
I love taking underdogs in November rivalry games, and the Bears have the defensive front to stand up to Stanford’s physical style of play. Jeff Tedford is 7-1 against the Cardinal, and Cal is averaging almost 40 points per game at home. Stanford 28, California 24
Last week: 5-8
Overall: 63-68
Best Bets: 6-5
Odds based on opening lines posted online at USA Today.com and home team is in all CAPS.
WASHINGTON -3 over UCLA
Huskies are the more desperate team here, losing four of five and three in a row. Jake Locker is back at quarterback for an emotional senior night, and a win keeps Washington’s fledgling bowl hopes alive. Washington 28, UCLA 21
Fresno State-BOISE STATE over 64.5
Three of the last four in this series have gone over the total. Fresno State is actually averaging more points per game on the road this season, but surrenders 38 points per game as well. Last three games for Bulldogs, and four of the last five, have gone over. Boise State 52, Fresno State 21
Purdue-MICHIGAN STATE under 47.5
Boilermakers have yet to score more than 20 points in a Big Ten game, and 40 of their last 59 Big Ten games have gone under the total. Purdue’s offense is averaging 10.5 points per game on the road this season. Michigan State 31, Purdue 10
Wisconsin-MICHIGAN over 66
Perhaps the two best offenses in the Big Ten Conference, and neither defense is equipped to match up in this matchup. Michigan physically cannot stand up to the Badgers at the point of attack, while Wisconsin will get exposed in space versus the quicker Wolverines. Two disturbing trends here for the Wolverines: Michigan has failed to cover 11 straight Big Ten games, and is 2-19 ATS in their last 21. I am 7-3 picking Michigan games ATS this season. Wisconsin 38, Michigan 31
KANSAS +22 over Oklahoma State
This is a total look-ahead game here for Cowboys, who are coming off big wins versus Baylor and Texas and have arch-rival Oklahoma for the Big 12 South title on deck. Jayhawks easily covered on the road at Nebraska last week in a tougher spot. Oklahoma State 38, Kansas 21
SOUTH FLORIDA +3 over Pittsburgh
I just don’t trust Dave Wannstedt to get his team ready in these situations, and the Bulls have momentum with a three-game winning streak. Pitt just lost in this exact same spot last week at UCONN. South Florida 24, Pittsburgh 21
COLORADO +3.5 over Kansas State
Home team has covered six of the last eight. Aside from taking advantage of four Texas interceptions to beat the struggling Longhorns, K-State has lost three of its last four games and its only real road win this season was at Kansas. Colorado 27, Kansas State 23
ILLINOIS -7.5 over Northwestern
Redemption and urgency on the side of the Illini here, who need this win for bowl eligibility with a tough road game at Fresno State still on deck. Wildcats are already bowl-bound and got their now annual win over Iowa last week, but it cost them star quarterback Dan Persa. Illinois 28, Northwestern 17
Ohio State -3 over IOWA
Since losing to Iowa in 2004, the Buckeyes have covered 70% of their games. And get this, Ohio State has won eight straight November road games, is 27-4 in November under Jim Tressel, and have won nine straight against Big Ten teams that were in BCS bowls the previous season. Eight of those wins were by more than a touchdown. Ohio State 27, Iowa 21
MIAMI +2 over Virginia Tech
I’ve picked against the Hokies four times this season, and have lost all four. Some say it’s crazy to keep doing it, but I say I’m bound to be right one of these times. Hurricanes have pride to play for after quitting in Blacksburg last season, and freshman quarterback Stephen Morris has been a revelation. Miami 23, Virginia Tech 21
IOWA STATE +12 over Missouri
Even without their starting quarterback the Cyclones still have more to play for here, being one win away from a bowl game while Mizzou is basically locked into its fate. Tigers are 1-6 ATS last seven as a favorite. ISU has been solid under Rhoads as an underdog, especially at home at night, and has covered four of the last five in this series. Missouri 28, Iowa State 21
MARYLAND +6 over Florida State
Seminoles have failed to cover last their four games, while the Terps have covered four straight. Maryland has covered the last two in the series, and is better at protecting the football. Maryland 27, Florida State 24
DOLPHINS pick over Bears
It’s the 25th anniversary of the 1985 classic between these two teams, and while the Bears are playing well Miami is more desperate for the win here in the tough AFC East. Don’t let the Dolphins playing their third string quarterback fool you, because he’s probably the most talented of the three. Dolphins 24, Bears 20
SAINTS -11.5 over Seahawks
It’s the second straight road game for Seattle, which is 2-8 ATS in its last 10 versus teams with winning records and 3-11 ATS in its last 14 road games. New Orleans is getting healthier, and should get a boost by the return of Reggie Bush. Saints 31, Seahawks 17
Best Bet—CALIFORNIA +8 over Stanford
I love taking underdogs in November rivalry games, and the Bears have the defensive front to stand up to Stanford’s physical style of play. Jeff Tedford is 7-1 against the Cardinal, and Cal is averaging almost 40 points per game at home. Stanford 28, California 24
