SteveDeace
Well-Known Member
Stone Cold Upsets & Lead Pipe Locks – Week 12
Last week: 4-5
Overall: 65-47 (58% winners)
Best Bets: 7-4 (64% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
IOWA STATE +27 over Oklahoma State
The situation here greatly favors the Cyclones, who are averaging over 300 yards rushing per game since making the switch to a more mobile quarterback. Two weeks ago, Kansas State scored 42 points in regulation versus the Cowboys running a similar offensive scheme. This is also a look-ahead game for the Cowboys, with Bedlam on deck. Oklahoma State 45, Iowa State 24
Nebraska-MICHIGAN under 51
Two of the best defenses in the Big Ten square off in a game featuring opposing quarterbacks struggling in the passing game. Nebraska’s last 5 games have gone under the total, as have 4 straight for the Wolverines. I am 6-4 picking Michigan games ATS this season. Michigan 24, Nebraska 20
GEORGIA -29.5 over Kentucky
Laying the wood against the Wildcats has been a successful proposition this season, and the Dawgs should be focused playing for a berth in the SEC Championship after a 0-2 start. Kentucky is just 1-7 ATS in last 8 road games. Georgia 42, Kentucky 10
Penn State-OHIO STATE under 39.5
A battle between two solid defenses who also have one-dimensional offenses. The under is 8-1-1 ATS in the Nittany Lions’ last 10 games. Ohio State 17, Penn State 10
TENNESSEE +1 over Vanderbilt
This is still a rivalry game, and one the Volunteers aren’t used to losing. It has to be a motivating factor for them to practice all week knowing they’re an underdog at home to Vanderbilt for the first time since man discovered fire. Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 17
MISSISSIPPI +30 over LSU
That’s a lot of points for a team without an explosive offense to lay on the road, especially with a key game against Arkansas on deck. Don’t forget Ole Miss took the Razorbacks down to the wire in Oxford a month ago. LSU 35, Mississippi 13
TEXAS -7 over Kansas State
Revenge game as well as a rebound game for the Longhorns. Last year the Wildcats were leading Texas 39-0 at one point, and have won three straight. Longhorns will look to get their mojo back after an ugly 17-5 loss at Missouri. Texas 28, Kansas State 17
Arizona +14.5 over ARIZONA STATE
Sun Devils have been in a freefall past few weeks, and last year salvaged their season by upsetting instate rival Arizona on the road. Now it’s the Wildcats’ turn. This has been a series for the road team, which is a 68% proposition ATS since 1996. Arizona 28, Arizona State 27
ILLINOIS +13.5 over Wisconsin
Home team has won 3 straight in the series, and the Illini still have the better defense here and are playing at home in a game that could be for their head coach’s job. Wisconsin’s soft defense on the road has them on upset alert, just like when I correctly predicted losses to Michigan State and Ohio State. Wisconsin 27, Illinois 20
Best Bet—N.C. STATE +10 over Clemson
This is a classic sandwich game and letdown all in one. Tigers are in between games that matter to them, coming off last week’s division-clinching win over Wake Forest with arch-rival South Carolina on deck. Clemson 23, N.C. State 21
Last week: 4-5
Overall: 65-47 (58% winners)
Best Bets: 7-4 (64% winners)
Odds are based on opening lines and home team is in all CAPS.
IOWA STATE +27 over Oklahoma State
The situation here greatly favors the Cyclones, who are averaging over 300 yards rushing per game since making the switch to a more mobile quarterback. Two weeks ago, Kansas State scored 42 points in regulation versus the Cowboys running a similar offensive scheme. This is also a look-ahead game for the Cowboys, with Bedlam on deck. Oklahoma State 45, Iowa State 24
Nebraska-MICHIGAN under 51
Two of the best defenses in the Big Ten square off in a game featuring opposing quarterbacks struggling in the passing game. Nebraska’s last 5 games have gone under the total, as have 4 straight for the Wolverines. I am 6-4 picking Michigan games ATS this season. Michigan 24, Nebraska 20
GEORGIA -29.5 over Kentucky
Laying the wood against the Wildcats has been a successful proposition this season, and the Dawgs should be focused playing for a berth in the SEC Championship after a 0-2 start. Kentucky is just 1-7 ATS in last 8 road games. Georgia 42, Kentucky 10
Penn State-OHIO STATE under 39.5
A battle between two solid defenses who also have one-dimensional offenses. The under is 8-1-1 ATS in the Nittany Lions’ last 10 games. Ohio State 17, Penn State 10
TENNESSEE +1 over Vanderbilt
This is still a rivalry game, and one the Volunteers aren’t used to losing. It has to be a motivating factor for them to practice all week knowing they’re an underdog at home to Vanderbilt for the first time since man discovered fire. Tennessee 24, Vanderbilt 17
MISSISSIPPI +30 over LSU
That’s a lot of points for a team without an explosive offense to lay on the road, especially with a key game against Arkansas on deck. Don’t forget Ole Miss took the Razorbacks down to the wire in Oxford a month ago. LSU 35, Mississippi 13
TEXAS -7 over Kansas State
Revenge game as well as a rebound game for the Longhorns. Last year the Wildcats were leading Texas 39-0 at one point, and have won three straight. Longhorns will look to get their mojo back after an ugly 17-5 loss at Missouri. Texas 28, Kansas State 17
Arizona +14.5 over ARIZONA STATE
Sun Devils have been in a freefall past few weeks, and last year salvaged their season by upsetting instate rival Arizona on the road. Now it’s the Wildcats’ turn. This has been a series for the road team, which is a 68% proposition ATS since 1996. Arizona 28, Arizona State 27
ILLINOIS +13.5 over Wisconsin
Home team has won 3 straight in the series, and the Illini still have the better defense here and are playing at home in a game that could be for their head coach’s job. Wisconsin’s soft defense on the road has them on upset alert, just like when I correctly predicted losses to Michigan State and Ohio State. Wisconsin 27, Illinois 20
Best Bet—N.C. STATE +10 over Clemson
This is a classic sandwich game and letdown all in one. Tigers are in between games that matter to them, coming off last week’s division-clinching win over Wake Forest with arch-rival South Carolina on deck. Clemson 23, N.C. State 21
